Now that we’re in the eighth week of the fantasy baseball season, we’re at a tipping point. Fantasy players are getting uneasy with slow starters and are ready to move on from players who are struggling. In this fantasy baseball buy or sell article, I’m going to sell you on the dream of either keeping a player or shedding dead weight.

The player in question today is Philadelphia Phillies starter, Jesus Luzardo. It’s never a great feeling when your starter has a 5.98 ERA, but let me talk you through why you shouldn’t worry, and if your leaguemate is frustrated, why you should offer them a deal.

Jesus Luzardo Fantasy Analysis: Why His 5.98 ERA is Deceptive

Luzardo may have a 5.98 ERA, but his peripheral metrics tell a completely different story. He currently boasts a 3.21 xERA, a 2.96 FIP, a 2.40 xFIP, and a 2.76 SIERA. All of the batted ball data suggests Luzardo has been incredibly unlucky and has been "BABIP’d" to death.

Here is a look at the indicators suggesting some serious positive regression is on the horizon:

  • Groundball rate: 48.7% (career-high)
  • Flyball rate: 24.8% (career-low)
  • Hard-hit percentage: 25.2% (career-low)
  • BABIP: .386 (career-high)

All of those metrics are beautiful. If you look at his Baseball Savant page, it’s covered in the kind of "red" (elite percentiles) that fantasy managers dream about.

Analyzing Luzardo’s Elite K-Rate and Strikeout Potential

Luzardo has always been able to miss bats, but this year he’s taken it to another level. He is currently third in the league with a career-best 11.7 K/9 and sixth in the league with a 30% K-rate.

In the modern game, missing bats is the name of the game, and Luzardo has been objectively elite at it. When you combine that strikeout upside with the improved groundball rates, you have a recipe for a dominant breakout.

 

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Why You Should Buy Low on Jesus Luzardo

As soon as you're done reading this article, and not a second sooner, go look to acquire Jesus Luzardo in whatever fantasy format you’re playing in.

If you already roster him, congrats: you already have an ace on your staff. Don't let the early-season surface stats scare you into a bad trade. I’d go out on a limb and say he has the potential to be a top-five pitcher in fantasy for the remainder of the season.