We’re eight seasons into Bo Bichette’s career, and we know he can flat-out hit. That’s what he does and has done since his debut. Only once in his career has he hit LOWER than .290, and his career mark is .289, so if you’re not buying into Bichette now, you’re jumping off a ship that’s about to take off. 

The Expected Metrics vs. Surface Stats Gap 

When looking at Bo Bichette’s surface-level numbers versus his expected numbers, it paints a completely different picture. Amongst ALL qualified players, Bo Bichette is top-12 in the difference between actual numbers and expected numbers.

  • BA - .228 / xBA - .277 (-.049); 11th biggest difference
  • SLG - .321 / xSLG - .415 (-.094); 12th biggest difference
  • wOBA - .268 / xwOBA - .322 (-.054); 7th biggest difference

 

 

 

Missing Lineup Protection in Queens 

There have been a lot of things happening around the Mets that have directly impacted Bichette and his fantasy production. Both Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor have missed a bunch of time, and that takes away directly from Bichette’s run scoring and run production as well. He’s a year removed from scoring 78 runs and driving in 94, and has three seasons of at least 90 RBI, 20 HR, and 78-plus runs scored.

Elite Hard-Hit Data Hints at a BABIP Correction 

Bichette has really run into some bad luck this year, posting a .257 BABIP for a guy with a career .333 BABIP. It’s actually gotten worse in May as his BABIP is .238 thus far, which is hard to do. It’s only up from there. Despite the fact that all of the batted ball data stinks, he hits the ball really hard, as he’s in the 68th percentile for hard-hit rate, and his exit velocity is 76th percentile as well.

 

 

 

A Proven History of Second-Half Surges 

There are some players who warm up as the weather does, and Bichette is one of them. Throughout his career, Bichette has a .274 AVG and .747 OPS in the first halves of seasons, while he has hit .318 with an .870 OPS after the break. I mean, look at what we have to look forward to;

  • July: .314 AVG, .821 OPS, 127 wRC+
  • August: .305 AVG, .852 OPS, 132 wRC+
  • September/October: .329 AVG, .916 OPS, 151 wRC+

Dual-Eligibility and Shallow Third Base Upside 

Bichette started the year at third base, but because of Francisco Lindor’s injury, he’s played a lot of shortstop again. The value here is that he can be played at both positions. The third base positional eligibility is really the prize because of how shallow the position is. Per Yahoo! Fantasy baseball scoring, Bichette has the 12th most fantasy points amongst all third basemen, which shows you what the upside is if/when he starts hitting at his normal level.