To be successful in fantasy baseball, at times it feels like you need to do a lot of things right. You need to not miss on your first four-to-five picks, but you also need to ensure you find value in the later rounds as well. Adolis García so far has proven himself to have provided immense value to your fantasy team, and we aren’t even to Independence Day, and he had an ADP this year of 170 while already contributing 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases. So, the question about Garcia at this point is should you be willing to buy him as a top 100 pick next season, as he could finish the season with 30 home runs and 20 steals. That could actually push him into the top 50 if we are being realistic, or is he a player we should be looking to fade moving forward?


As I’m sure you’re painfully aware, finding players who get to 20 home runs and ten steals are hard enough to find, let alone someone who goes 20/20 or even 30/20 or any combination of those numbers, but the players who have them will always have a chance to win in fantasy, so let's take a look at how sustainable these numbers are for Garcia as he looks to be in the midst of a career year. First, let's assess the power we are seeing in his game. At the time of this writing, Garcia is in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, and he has an average launch angle of 14.5 degrees. These two numbers are strong indicators that his power is real and if that launch angle can be maintained, he will have an opportunity to continue to show his power and that is without getting into him having a barrel percentage of 10.6 percent and a solid contact percentage of 12.2 percent. He hit 31 home runs last season, and he is on pace to get to 30 home runs again this year. 

When we look at his ability to steal bases, things get to be a little less clear. Currently, it would appear that Rangers manager Chris Woodward, has given Garcia the green light on the base path. So far this season he has 13 stolen base attempts, and he has been successful 11 times which is an 85 percent success rate. In comparison, he only attempted 21 stolen bases all of last season. So for Garcia to get to 20 steals based on his current success rate he is going to need to make at least 24 attempts. His ability to steal bases is supported by his 77th percentile sprint speed, so it would appear that his numbers are likely to be dependent on him getting the opportunity to make the attempts.

At this point in the season, there are not many fantasy baseball players that have provided as much value at their ADP as Garcia has and his future looks promising. He is still in his prime years being 28 years old, and there isn’t anything that stands out in his profile that indicates that anything he is doing currently shouldn’t be seen as sustainable production. The only thing that might limit him moving forward is the improvement of his own team. The Rangers made significant player investments in the offseason. With him hitting third in the lineup it will help him get RBI and plate appearances but could ultimately put a cap on how many bases he can steal simply due to availability. If you have someone in your league who is still skeptical about Garcia’s production you should try to pursue him and moving forward, he should be a strong consideration in your future drafts likely as a top 75 pick.


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