MLB DFS Playbook April 2: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: Apr 02, 2023
What better way to cure the Sunday Scaries than a full slate of baseball games! No, it was not an April fool's joke that Thompson hit a three in baseball yesterday, Trayce Thompson (Klay's brother) did in fact hit three home runs for the Dodgers yesterday. Let's see what madness happens on our first slate of Sunday baseball games. There are ten games on the main MLB DFS slate today for both DraftKings and Fanduel. The weather has calmed down some from yesterday, but high winds will continue to play a factor so be sure to check out MLB Weather Center throughout the day as we lead into roster lock. Don't forget, we also have some great tools like the MLB Vegas odds, batter versus pitcher, and the MLB Lineups page. To get projections and to build multiple lineups we have MLB Daily Projections and an MLB DFS Lineup Generator plus check out the Fantasy Alarm MLB tools page.
MLB DFS Playbook April 1
MLB Weather Updates
Sunday's MLB DFS main slate continues to have multiple games with wind and weather advisories that should be considered when building your MLB DFS lineups for today's slate, but most winds have slowed from 20-to-25+ MPH yesterday to around 10-to-15 MPH in most places. Check out the highlights below and be sure to monitor the MLB Weather Center for continued updates.
Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics: Sustained winds of 15-to-20 MPH blowing in from left field at the Coliseum.
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: The wind has slowed down a ton from yesterday but still looking at 10-to15 MPH winds blowing in. If the wind wasn't enough to keep the ball in the park yesterday, it probably won't today either.
San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees: Also looking at around 15 MPH winds blowing in, but in Yankee Stadium, that probably isn't enough to be too worried about it keeping the ball in the yard.
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: The wind has been changing directions a lot right now but it is currently sitting around 15-to-20 MPH blowing in from the Green Monster.
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals: Winds of up to 20 MPH blowing out toward left field in Kauffman Stadium right now. Definitely could help hitters in what is normally a pretty pitcher-friendly park.
DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
We are officially into the back end of rotations at this point. The most expensive pitchers are Kodai Senga, making his MLB debut, on DraftKings, and Joe Ryan on FanDuel. Finding the value pitcher plays is going to likely be harder, but that also lends itself to some better-hitting matchups across the board. You'll notice the top options for strikeouts aren't very exciting, as you will be lucky to find someone who gets over six strikeouts today. I think it is also important to not read too much into the first couple of games and write anyone off who hasn't well hit yet or to give too much of a boost for players off to a hot start when building your DFS lineups today.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Joe Ryan vs Kansas City Royals
Chris Bassitt vs St. Louis Cardinals
Jeffrey Springs vs Detroit Tigers
Best Odds for a Win
Kodai Senga (-125) vs Miami Marlins
Jeffrey Springs (+125) vs Detroit Tigers
Jared Shuster (+165) vs Washington Nationals
Luis Garcia (+165) vs Chicago White Sox
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Jeffrey Springs, Tampa Bay Rays
Jeffrey Springs has been absolutely amazing this spring. He threw 9.2 scoreless innings with 16 strikeouts and 1 walk. He had a fantastic year last year with a 2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 20.6 K-BB%. He gets a great matchup against Detroit at home in his first start. I think he continues his dominant spring and could stack up some strikeouts against the Tigers along with a pretty good shot at a win.
This is a high-risk high-reward pick. He is making his MLB debut. We really don't know how good he is going to be, but the potential is still super high. This is a better pick on FanDuel where he is cheaper, I don't know if it is worth the risk on DraftKings to take him as the highest-priced pitcher. He has the best odds to get a win today thanks to a good matchup, and while the blowup potential is there, I do think he probably has the best odds of being the highest-scoring pitcher today.
I think Joe Ryan has more upside than a lot of the pitchers on this slate. He gets to face an improving but still not scary Royals lineup. He has some strikeout upside, at least relative to a lot of the other pitchers on the slate today. He has a new look to his slider this spring and added a changeup which if usable could help him take another step forward.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
Atlanta Braves vs MacKenzie Gore
Cincinnati Reds vs Vince Velasquez
Houston Astros vs Mike Clevinger
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Ozzie Albies, 2B Atlanta Braves
Albies against a lefty who I don't trust, sign me up every time. He is a career .918 OPS against lefties. MacKenzie Gore still could end up being a good pitcher, but he hasn't proven it yet so I am willing to take the bet that Atlanta can stack up some runs against him today and Albies should be at the heart of that batting 4th today.
Travis d'Arnaud, C Atlanta Braves
Another Brave who hits lefties. He gets to DH today and is batting 5th which means you get a catcher who isn't catching and gets to only focus on hitting as well as being in the heart of a fantastic lineup. I think too much attention is going to the Brave's new catcher Murphy which may cause d'Arnaud in being overlooked, but d'Arnaud is the better hitter against lefties than Murphy and is higher up the lineup. If you want an Atlanta catcher today pay the extra $100 (FanDuel) or $200 (DraftKings) to have it be d'Arnaud.
Jake Fraley, OF Cincinnati Reds
The Reds face one of the worst pitchers of today's slate in Velasquez. Velasquez has a career 1.51 HR/9 and they are playing in Great American Ball Park which I have nicknamed Coors Lite, as it is by far the best-hitting park outside of Colorado, and is a better homerun park than Colorado. Last year for left-handed hitters Cincinnati had a 159 HR park factor, which means 59% more home runs for lefties were observed there than the average of the rest of the league. Fraley crushes right-handers and I think he takes advantage of this match-up.
Wander Franco, SS Tampa Bay Rays
Here we have another player who crushes lefties playing against a not-very-good lefty pitcher who is being underpriced. I think splits are overlooked too often with switch hitters (this is my second pick of a switch hitter who crushes lefties after Albies). Wander's career OPS against lefties is two points lower than Albies at .916, and he gets a pitcher I trust even less than Gore in Wentz. I would consider Wander as a play in this matchup even if he was priced with the other top SS, but he isn't so I will happily take him at the discount.
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