Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Wednesday, July 1st. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS projections, running lineups through our DFS optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's main slate has multiple different directions to go, considering the warm weather across the country. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 7-Game DK Main, 8-Game FD Main |  Lock Time: 7:15 pm ET (DK) – 6:40 pm ET (FD), Wednesday, July 1st, 2026

Vegas Totals: MIA/COL - LAD/ATH (tied for highest-projected game), TB/KC (second-highest game), SF/ARI (third-highest game)

Highest K-Projections: Paul Skenes 6.5 O/U (-162), Zack Wheeler 6.5 O/U (-155), Tatsuya Imai 5.5 O/U (-148), Max Meyer 5.5 O/U (-135), Taj Bradley 5.5 O/U (-132), Shane Drohan 4.5 O/U (-176)

MLB Weather Today, 7/1

It is hot and humid across the entire country, with every game expected to have a first-pitch temperature above 80 degrees. We are all clear on the precipitation front. 

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Zack Wheeler (PHI) – FD Only

Analysis: Wheeler draws a tough matchup on paper against a Pirates team that trails only the Dodgers in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. However, matchup barely matters for a pitcher of Wheeler's caliber. He already dominated this team once this season, tossing seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts back in May.  

Paul Skenes (PIT) – FD Only

Analysis: Skenes draws the better matchup of the dueling aces on FD. Philly owns a below-average 97 wRC+ against righties, and they have struck out at the sixth-highest rate. Unfortunately, the hulking righty has not been in the best form recently, allowing multiple runs in each of his last five starts. On the plus side, he has recorded at least seven strikeouts in each of those outings. 

Max Meyer (MIA)

Analysis: With no pitcher priced above $9k on the DK slate, Meyer is the de facto ace despite a matchup in Coors Field. The righty has been excellent this season with a 2.60 ERA through 17 starts, although it appears there has been a little luck involved. Meyer has allowed just a .263 BABIP and 8.2% HR/FB. For context, his career BABIP was .310 while his career HR/FB rate was 20.9% entering this season. Both of those career numbers are on the extremely unlucky side, but now they have overcorrected. The Rockies are a plus matchup, even factoring in the elite hitting environment, so Meyer still has upside today. 

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Taj Bradley (MIN)

Analysis: Bradley has put together a solid season with a 3.98 ERA and an above-average 25.4% strikeout rate. He draws an average matchup against a Houston team with a 103 wRC+ versus righties and a 22.3% strikeout rate that ranks 19th. There are only a handful of comfortable options on the DK slate, and Bradley is certainly one of them. 

Tatsuya Imai (HOU)

Analysis: Imai has exploded for 21 strikeouts across 12 innings in his last two starts. Just as importantly, he issued just one walk in those two outings. Tonight, he draws a matchup against a Twins team that has handled right-handed pitching quite well this season, posting a 110 wRC+ and 21.3% strikeout rate. The version of Imai that has shown up in the last two starts can easily win this matchup, but there is plenty of risk that the early-season version shows up again. 

Trevor McDonald (SF)

Analysis: The DK pitching slate is very tricky, as the three best options written up above all project for significant ownership. Shane Drohan is the other pitcher projected for significant ownership, and there needs to be a point of differentiation somewhere. Drohan gets a high-upside matchup against the Reds, but his strikeouts are down as a starter, and he doesn't work deep into games. McDonald slightly edges out Andrew Abbott as my favorite contrarian option on the slate due to his plus matchup against a Diamondbacks team that ranks near the bottom of the league with an 85 wRC+ against righties. He has struggled in his last three starts, but those have come against three solid offenses. 

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the main slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Paul Skenes: 30.6% K% (11.0 K/9)

Tatsuya Imai: 28.7% K% (11.1 K/9)

Zack Wheeler: 26.1% K% (8.8 K/9)

Max Meyer: 26.7% K% (9.9 K/9)

Taj Bradley: 25.4% K% (9.8 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Otto Lopez (SS, MIA) & Xavier Edwards (2B, MIA) 

Analysis: Lopez missed out on the 14-run explosion yesterday as he had the night off. He should be fresh and back atop the lineup for an elite spot against Freeland in Coors. He owns a .218 ISO and an elite .475 wOBA against lefties this season. Edwards is right behind him with a .188 ISO and .377 wOBA. Freeland has allowed a .276 ISO and .421 wOBA to righties. 

Junior Caminero (3B, TB) & Jonathan Aranda (1B, TB)

Analysis: Caminero went deep AGAIN yesterday, making it 8 home runs in his last 7 games. He gets elite hitting conditions again in Kansas City, and a matchup against a reverse-splits righty that has allowed a .236 ISO to RH batters. Despite those reverse splits, Aranda also looks great in this matchup at an attractive price point. He owns a .233 ISO against righties this season. 

Freddie Freeman (1B, LAD) & Max Muncy (3B, LAD)

Analysis: Shohei Ohtani is obviously the top option if you can fit the salary. If not, Freeman and Muncy are excellent options as they both own an ISO above .225 against righties this season. They get an elite hitting environment with warm weather in Sutter Health Park. Ginn has been far more vulnerable to lefties than righties with a strikeout rate below 18%. 

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Esteury Ruiz (OF, MIA) & Javier Sanoja (3B, MIA)

Analysis: Ruiz should hit in the middle of the order, but he does carry some pinch-hit risk. He owns an elite .366 ISO against lefties this season. Sanoja will likely hit down in the order, but he should remain in the game for nine innings. He's put up more than 20 DK points in each of the first two games of the series. 

Bryce Eldridge (1B, SF) & Rafael Devers (1B, SF)

Analysis: These Giants sluggers get a ballpark boost on the road. They draw an excellent spot against a struggling Gallen who owns a 6.15 ERA and has allowed a .186 ISO/.250 xISO to lefties this season. Eldridge is at .213 ISO and .384 wOBA against righties, while Devers is at .262 ISO and .360 wOBA. Unfortunately, you can't play them together on DK with 1B-only eligibility for both.  

Victor Mesa (OF, TB) & Chandler Simpson (OF, TB)

Analysis: Lugo has reverse splits this season, but he was crushed by lefties last season. These two lefty outfielders should hit in the middle of the lineup, and both offer upside in an elite hitting environment tonight. Mesa owns a .189 ISO against righties, while Simpson has already racked up 19 stolen bases. 

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Miami Marlins vs Kyle Freeland (COL LHP)

Why: The Marlins have plated a whopping 24 runs in their first two games at Coors Field. They get another elite spot with warm weather and another mediocre starter on the mound. Freeland owns a 7.50 ERA and has allowed 2.0 HR/9. 

Targets: Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards, Esteury Ruiz, Heriberto Hernandez, Kyle Stowers, Javier Sanoja

Primary Stack: Tampa Bay Rays vs Seth Lugo (KC RHP)

Why: Elite hitting conditions with temperatures in the 90s and winds blowing out to left-center field at 10+ mph. Lugo is dealing with declining skills and has been hit hard this season, allowing a 10.3% barrel rate and a 42% hard-hit rate. 

Targets: Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Victor Mesa, Chandler Simpson, Cedric Mullins

Primary Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs J.T. Ginn (ATH RHP)

Why: The Dodgers are trending for attractive ownership considering their slate-leading implied team total. Ginn has been tough on righties this season, but he owns a strikeout rate under 18% against lefties. The Dodgers are the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching with a league-leading 124 wRC+. 

Targets: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Kyle Tucker, Dalton Rushing, Mookie Betts 

"Contrarian" Stack: San Francisco Giants vs Zac Gallen (SF RHP)

Why: The Giants' offense gets a significant park boost on the road in Arizona. They also get a matchup against Gallen, who owns a 6.15 ERA and has allowed nearly 1.6 HR/9. The hard-hit rate is up at 43.6%, and the barrel rate sits at 10.1%, so it doesn't look any better under the hood. 

Targets: Bryce Eldridge, Rafael Devers, Luis Arraez, Casey Schmitt, Jung Hoo Lee

"Contrarian" Stack: Atlanta Braves vs Michael McGreevy (STL RHP)

Why: McGreevy has been one of the luckiest starting pitchers in baseball, with a surface-level 3.12 ERA but a 5.58 xERA. A .260 BABIP and 83% strand rate are almost certain to regress closer to league average. Lefties have smoked McGreevy for a .225 ISO/.250 xISO, and the Braves are loaded with lefty power. 

Targets: Matt Olson, Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies, Drake Baldwin, Dominic Smith 

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

The Winning Logic
Drohan (SP, chalk)McDonald (SP, lower owned)Four pitchers are projected for all the ownership on the DK slate. Drohan is the most vulnerable of the bunch, so pivot to a low-owned McDonald in a plus matchup. 
Marlins (Chalk)Dodgers (pivot stack)The Dodgers are again projected for far less ownership than the Marlins despite being in an elite spot of their own. 
Hernandez + Stowers (chalk)Eldridge + Schmitt (lower owned)The cheaper Giants get a ballpark upgrade and a matchup with a struggling righty. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Paul Skenes (FD SP1)
  2. Taj Bradley (DK SP1)
  3. Tatsuya Imai (DK SP2)
  4. Otto Lopez (Core Bat)
  5. Xavier Edwards (Core Bat)
  6. Max Muncy (Core Bat)
  7. Bryce Eldridge (Core Value Bat)
  8. Esteury Ruiz (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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