MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: April 21st, 2026

Published: Apr 21, 2026

Building winning MLB DFS lineups starts with identifying the right pitching anchors, targeting favorable handedness matchups, and stacking the right offenses against hittable arms. Tonight's slate features a mix of high-ceiling strikeout plays at the top of the pitcher market and undervalued value arms that can unlock premium construction elsewhere in your lineup. On the hitting side, identifying which left-handed stacks get the most favorable matchups against struggling right-handed pitchers - and which right-handed bats are sitting against soft southpaws - is where the edge gets built. The leverage plays in any given slate come from finding the ownership gaps between talent and roster rate. For the most up-to-date MLB DFS projections, lineup optimizer, ownership projections, and daily MLB DFS lineups, visit FantasyAlarm.com. Let's get into it.

⚡ THE SLATE DASHBOARD

Slate: DraftKings and FanDuel Main | 7:10 PM ET lock
Weather: LAD @ SF: Yellow/Green - Slight chance of an in-game delay that impacts starting pitching.
Top Expected Ownership: Yamamoto • McLean • SD bats (Tatis, Machado, Laureano, Sheets) • TOR Lefties (Varsho, Sanchez)
Top Strikeout Projections: McLean (6.5 K) • Bubic (6.5 K) • Imanaga (6.5 K) • Luzardo (6.5 K) • Yamamoto (5.5 K)

💎 PITCHING COACH

Top Tier

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD | vs SF | DK $9,500 / FD $10,900)

Analysis: Yamamoto is off to another dominant start this season, with a 2.10 ERA through four starts. His strikeout rate is down, but there is no concern as his swinging-strike rate is actually higher than it was last season, when he posted 29.4% strikeouts.

San Francisco offers a plus matchup in their pitcher-friendly home park. They haven't struck out much, but they own just an 81 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.

Shota Imanaga (CHC | vs PHI | DK $8,700 / FD $10,400)

Analysis: Imanaga just absolutely dominated this Phillies lineup with 11 strikeouts over six innings of three-hit, one-run baseball. Facing the same lineup in back-to-back starts is not ideal, but the matchup does set up extremely well on paper. The Phillies currently own the lowest wRC+ in baseball against left-handed pitching.

Iamanaga has surrendered just two home runs in 22 innings this season (0.82 HR/9), which is a huge improvement on his biggest issue last season. He is also whiffing batters (37.8% strikeouts, 16.4% swinging-strikes) at an elite rate.

The lefty is priced between the two most popular pitchers on the slate, which should lead to reduced ownership.

Nolan McLean (NYM | vs MIN | DK $8,500 / FD $10,200)

Analysis: McLean has dominated ever since bursting onto the MLB scene in August of last year. Across 12 big league starts, he owns a 2.13 ERA and an elite 30.7% strikeout rate. He's coming off arguably the most impressive start of his young career, dominating the elite Dodgers offense with eight strikeouts across seven innings of one-run ball.

The young phenom gets an easier matchup tonight in his pitcher-friendly home park. Minnesota is slightly better than league average against righties (104 wRC+), but they also strike out at the fourth-highest rate (24.7%).

Kris Bubic (KC | vs BAL | DK $8,400 / FD $9,800)

Analysis: Bubic is priced just below the two most popular pitchers of the slate, which should lead to an attractive ownership number for a pitcher with just as much upside. He's posted some uneven results, including a rough outing in Detroit last start and an 11.2% walk rate this season. However, the strikeouts are borderline elite with strong underlying data to back it up.

The matchup adds to his upside, as Baltimore is an average offense (101 wRC+) against left-handed pitching that strikes out at the second-highest rate (27.3%).

Value Plays

Merrill Kelly (ARI | vs CWS | DK $7,500 / FD $9,200)

Analysis: Kelly was delayed by a back injury to begin the season and has made just one start so far. He had some uncharacteristic control issues in that start, but he did reach 86 pitches. Last season, Kelly was the D-backs' best pitcher as he turned in a 3.38 ERA across 32 starts.

His second start of the season comes against a White Sox team that has struggled badly against right-handed pitching. They own just a 79 wRC+ and have struck out at a 24.6% clip, which is fifth-highest in baseball.

Randy Vasquez (SD | vs COL | DK $7,000 / FD $9,700)

Analysis: Vasquez turned some heads in Spring Training when he showed up with two more clicks of velocity. The righty has turned that added velocity into significantly more swing-and-miss. His strikeout rate has ballooned to 27.8% (from 13.7% last season), and his swinging strikes are up at 13.1% (from 6.7% LY). The surface-level results have been equally impressive, with a 2.49 ERA through four starts.

He gets the challenging environment of Coors Field this evening, but the Rockies have again been one of the worst offenses in baseball. They own just an 88 wRC+ against righties, and they have struck out at the second-highest rate in baseball.

💎 HITTING COACH

Elite Bats

San Diego Padres Stack in Coors Field

Analysis: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Ramon Laureano, Gavin Sheets, and Xander Bogaerts all project for at least 15% ownership, but it is extremely warranted in most cases. Colorado is going with a righty opener ahead of Chase Dollander this evening, which adds appeal to lefties like Jackson Merrill and Sheets.

Tatis has as much upside as any hitter on the slate, and 2B eligibility on DK is an excellent bonus. His StatCast data is all elite, even if the surface-level results haven't shown up yet this season. There is no chance he stays stuck on zero home runs for long with a 94th-percentile average exit velocity and 100th-percentile hard-hit rate.

Laureano also has extremely strong underlying data, and he has been the Padres' best hitter on the surface this season. Sheets' affordable price from Dollander's weaker split is extremely attractive as well.

Cal Raleigh (C, SEA | DK $4,700 / FD $2,900)

Analysis: Raleigh isn't blasting homers at the absurd rate he did last season just yet, but he gets a great matchup tonight. Lefty Jacob Lopez has just a 17.4% strikeout rate against righties this season, and he allowed 1.73 HR/9 to them last season. Raleigh posted a ridiculous .400 ISO against southpaws last year.

Mickey Moniak (OF, COL | DK $4,700 / FD $3,900)

Analysis: The Rockies are typically the much lower-owned side of the Coors Field matchup, and that is no different today. As much as Vasquez has impressed this season, this matchup still sets up extremely well for Moniak. He's blasted so far this season (.447 ISO) after being well-above average last season (.271 ISO). Vasquez had wide traditional splits last season, and even with his improved velocity, he still projects to struggle with lefty power.

Value Bats

Daulton Varsho (OF, TOR | DK $4,000 / FD $2,800): Jays lefties are in a great spot against the low strikeouts and high walks of Kochanowicz. Varsho posted an elite .359 ISO against righties last season.

Jesus Sanchez (OF, TOR | DK $3,700 / FD $2,800): Another great lefty option for the Jays. Sanchez posted a healthy .170 ISO against righties last year.

Adrian Del Castillo (C, ARI | DK $3,600 / FD $2,700): Del Castillo has been excellent for the D-backs this season, with a .393 wOBA and 148 wRC+.

Jeremiah Jackson (2B, BAL | DK $3,200 / FD $3,100): Injuries have opened up at-bats for Jackson, and he has absolutely run with the opportunity. He owns a .368 wOBA and 136 wRC+ with 5 homers already this season.

🏗️ THE STACKING BLUEPRINT

Primary Stack: San Diego Padres | Targets: Tatis, Machado, Laureano, Merrill, Sheets, Bogaerts | Opponent: COL / Chase Dollander (RHP) | LAD implied

Why: The Padres have the highest implied run total on the board by more than a full run as they head into Coors Field. They will get a righty opener ahead of Chase Dollander as their opposition today. Dollander has wide traditional splits, so lefties would typically be the first look, but there are some very intriguing righties as well.

Tatis has been smoking the ball again this season, and the power is going to come in bunches very soon. Laureano also has elite underlying numbers and better surface numbers, while Merrill and Sheets are the most attractive lefty swingers.

Primary Stack: Toronto Blue Jays | Targets: Varsho, Sanchez, Guerrero, Lukes, Okamoto | Opponent: LAA / Jack Kochanowicz (RHP) | LAA implied

Why: Kochanowicz has one primary skill, and that is generating ground balls against righties. That puts fly-ball lefties like Varsho and Sanchez at the top of the list. Of course, you can always use Vladimir Guerrero in any matchup. The extreme control problems for Kochanowicz give even more appeal to the full stack beyond just the top options.

Primary Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks | Targets: Carroll, Marte, Perdomo, Gurriel, Del Castillo | Opponent: CWS / Sean Burke (RHP) | ARI implied

Why: The Diamondbacks have the second-highest implied run total on the board, but it doesn't appear they are going to be anywhere near as popular as the Padres. White Sox righty Sean Burke struggled with power on both sides of the plate last season. He allowed 1.54 HR/9 and a 10.4% barrel rate, so it is quite surprising to see Arizona flying under the radar a bit. They are off to a slow start, with just an 84 wRC+ against righties, which is likely a contributing factor.

Last season, they ranked third in ISO and seventh in wOBA against righties, so there shouldn't be much concern over the slow start.

Contrarian Stack: Colorado Rockies | Targets: Moniak, Goodman, Johnston, Rumfield, Julien | Opponent: SD / Randy Vasquez (RHP) | COL implied

Why: As much as I like Vasquez as a contrarian pitching option, the Rockies stack holds plenty of appeal in tournaments as well. Vasquez was known to have power issues in the past, and even though they haven't come back to bite him this season, he has allowed 10 barrels already in just 56 batted-ball events this season. If the Rockies can harness their strikeout issues, they have loads of upside in Coors Field today.

Contrarian Stack: New York Mets | Targets: Robert, Lindor, Bichette, Baty, Alvarez | Opponent: MIN / Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP) | NYM implied

Why: The Mets have arguably been the worst offense in baseball this season. They have lost 11 games in a row and desperately need to stop the bleeding. Fortunately, they get a very attackable matchup against Simeon Woods Richardson and a bad Minnesota bullpen. Woods Richardson owns a 6.10 ERA and has managed just a 12% strikeout rate through four starts.

📈 THE LEVERAGE REPORT (GAME THEORY

The "Chalk" (Popular)	The "Pivot" (Low Owned)	The Winning Logic
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (highly owned, legitimate ace play)	Shota Imanaga (moderate ownership, elite underlying numbers)	Yamamoto is projected for ownership north of 30%, while Imanage is sitting under half that. Imanaga has flashed elite strikeout upside this season with underlying numbers to support it.
SD stack in Coors (high ownership across full lineup)	COL stack in Coors (low ownership across full lineup)	The Padres are the obvious top stack, while the Rockies are checking in with extremely low ownership in the same elite hitting environment.
Nolan McLean (highly owned vs MIN)	Randy Vasquez (extremely low owned, sneaky upside with improved velocity)	McLean has been nothing short of dominant in his short MLB career and is undoubtedly the safer play. However, Vasquez appears to be breaking out and gets a below-average, high-K COL lineup.