Welcome to the Fantasy Alarm MLB DFS Playbook for Thursday, May 15th! 

We have a pretty underwhelming 4-game slate, but we're here for it! Two pitchers are standing out to me, so let's figure out who to stack 'em up with.

Whether chasing big GPP prizes or grinding cash games, we’ve got you covered with insights tailored to today’s matchups. Let’s jump right into the key plays and strategies to dominate the slate!

 

 

This season's MLB DFS picks and playbook will consist of a pitcher and hitter core players section with written analysis, player pool grid and core stacks section.

The core player section should be used as a starting point for all lineups, you may not be able to use all players in the same lineup, but those players should be the building blocks for you on a given night.

The player pool grid will feature both players from the core player section along with additional plays to help you build a complete lineup. The grid will be broken into top priced players, mid-priced players and value tier players.

The stacks section will bring you our favorite lineups stacks for the day and which players we would look to include in those stacks based on matchups and pricing.

Tune in to the daily MLB DFS Show at 5 PM ET to get some last-minute advice and answer your questions before the slate begins! 

Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting.

 

MLB DFS Picks & MLB Playbook

MLB Weather: Thursday, 5/15

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins

  • Possible showers, does not seem like a serious threat

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox

  • Winds in, warm temps
 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

The top end of the salary range is interesting tonight, as the best and most expensive pitcher on the slate is in a difficult matchup. There are a few elite matchups we can target if not spending all the way up to the top option. 

Let's get into today's core pitching plays for our DFS lineups. 

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves

AJS might finally be putting it together. He’s far from a finished product, as he’s walking a ton of right-handed hitters, which is causing him to have an inflated wOBA. However, he does have a lot going for him. He gave up a lot of reverse-power to right-handed hitters last year, and it looks like he has been able to limit that damage this season by missing more right-handed bats with a whiff rate against right-handed hitters that’s more than twice as high as it was in 2024. AJS is only striking out 20% of hitters, but the good news is, he is projected to see just three of them today. If that’s the case, I’ll be extremely interested in him, as he’s striking out a borderline elite 29% of LHB and hasn’t shown any control issues against them. He will give up a share of barrels, and although James Wood and CJ Abrams are scary-good hitters, I’ll take my chances against a bunch of subpar lefties – if that’s what Washington decides to roll out.

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Gausman has had a few weird games this season, but it boils down to him giving up three earned runs or less in six of his eight starts this season. As good as Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, and (sometimes) Brandon Lowe are, the rest of the projected lineup looks rough, with four projected hitters owning ISO rates less than .073 vs. RHB this season. That’s unbelievably bad. Yandy Diaz out of the lineup for the series really stings, he’s a high-contact bat that can really drive up a pitch count. Considering there are minimal respectable pitcher options on this small slate, Gausman ranks highly by default for me.

Other Scary Pitching Options, YOLO

The only other two pitchers that I’m considering (and are not safe by any means) are Nick Martinez and Tomoyuki Sugano. If you're trying to get some pricey bats, you may have to dip down to this tier to have some GPP winning upside. However, there is obvious risk. Martinez has the White Sox, and for obvious reasons, he’s in play – mostly because of the size of the slate and the matchup. CWS ranks 28th in wRC+, 29th in ISO, and dead last in wOBA vs. RHP this year – just a miserable franchise right now (sorry, Sox fans, although I am pumped for Hagen Smith). 

Sugano is striking out next to nobody, but he’s mitigated damage, and the Twins ranks 19th and 20th, respectively, in wRC+ and ISO vs. RHP this season. He’s been good against RHB, and he’s keeping the ball on the ground at a 51% clip vs. LHB this season.

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

There's just four games today, and although some pitchers are pretty bad, some of them have been lucky in 2025. Let's check it out.

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Elly De La Cruz And The Reds

Opposing starter Bryce Wilson has arguably the worst underlying metrics of any pitcher on this slate, with a miserable 6.76 xERA and a SIERA that is well north of 5.00. He’s striking out just 12% of hitters, so he’ll have to have another lucky BABIP game today to survive. He’s yielding a 12% barrel rate and showing some reverse power to righties, which puts guys like Spencer Steer and Austin Hays well in play. Although he’s been better vs. lefties so far in 2025, he yielded a .207 ISO to them last season, and you’ll get Elly De La Cruz from the left side of the plate – where he thrives. Will Benson is  also a nice value option toward the bottom of the lineup, who has been pretty good since his recall. There are currently two teams with implied run totals better than 5 on this plate, and the Reds are one of them.

Drake Baldwin & (mostly) lefty Braves

The other team on this slate with an implied run total higher than 5 is Atlanta. Trevor Williams has been very good vs. right-handed batters this season, but LHB have been giving him fits, as he’s coughed up all 5 of his homers allowed to them with a .396/.435/.625 slash in 96 at-bats. He’s striking out just 13% of LHB and allowing a massive .451 wOBA. I’m very interested in lefties/switch hitters Matt Olson, the emerging Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris, and the slumping Ozzie Albies. Round out the 5-man stack with your choice of Marcell Ozuna and company. UPDATE - The Braves lineup was released while I was writing this, and Baldwin is in the 2-hole! He’s probably my favorite catcher today now that he's hitting higher up in the order.

Orioles vs. a lucky Chris Paddack

We have a tiny slate on our hands, so I’m willing to make a bet on talent against a pitcher who seems to (figuratively) be getting away with murder this season. Paddack has a career-worst 4.87 SIERA and a fairly underwhelming xERA. He has posted a 100% LOB% in three of his last five starts, and a 92% in another outing mixed in there. To put that into perspective, it’s mostly elite pitchers with the highest LOB% in the bigs, and for example, Tarik Skubal has posted four 100% LOB% games this season. By no means does Paddack belong in a conversation with any elite hurlers. That being said, outside of getting shelled in his first outing, he’s been pretty good. Although his fastball has been decent this season, he has no higher than a 15% putaway% on any pitch (via Savant) while striking out just 17% of hitters. I think we can target both sides of the plate against him and hope the regression train smacks him in the face, but I’m a little more partial to LHB, as Paddack is striking out just 13% of them and allowing a nice clip of fly balls. He’s throwing north of 50% of 4-seam fastballs to hitters, and this is a very good fastball-hitting Orioles team.

Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays

VARSHO IS NOT IN THE STARTING LINEUP TODAY

You can talk me into some Blue Jays on this slate, and Varsho spearheads that list. He's been on an absolute tear since returning from the IL. Dating back to last season, Varsho owns a .226 ISO vs. RHP, which ranks second on the team. Zack Littell is an average/below average pitcher, and he has given up a nice little 12% barrel rate this season. What's really interesting is that Littell throws his slider the most to hitters, and in 46 batted-ball events vs. right-handed sliders since the start of 2024, Varsho has an absurd 95% hard-hit rate and a 47% fly-ball rate against that pitch. Of course, Littell is not going to throw all sliders to anybody, but it helps that Varsho is grease-fire hot, and he hits what Littell should be offering as an out-pitch.

 

 

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-