Welcome to the Fantasy Alarm MLB DFS Playbook for Thursday, August 14th! 

We have a 5-game main slate in store for us this evening on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 6:40 PM ET. Today, we have plenty of talent on the diamond and many different ways to build your lineup. Our expert analysis is here to guide you through the top pitchers, value plays, and stackable offenses to target.

Whether chasing big GPP prizes or grinding cash games, we’ve got you covered with insights tailored to today’s matchups. Let’s jump right into the key plays and strategies to dominate the slate!

 

 

This season's MLB DFS picks and playbook will consist of a pitcher and hitter core players section with written analysis, player pool grid and core stacks section.

The core player section should be used as a starting point for all lineups, you may not be able to use all players in the same lineup, but those players should be the building blocks for you on a given night.

The player pool grid will feature both players from the core player section along with additional plays to help you build a complete lineup. The grid will be broken into top priced players, mid-priced players and value tier players.

The stacks section will bring you are favorite lineups stacks for the day and which players we would look to include in those stacks based on matchups and pricing.

Check out the MLB DFS Show to get an initial outlook on the day's MLB DFS slate to give you a good base for the start of your research each day! 

 

 

Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting.

 

 

MLB DFS Picks & MLB Playbook

MLB Weather: Thursday, 8/14 

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

Low chance of rain that could impact play with a late start or in-game delay. 

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

Any rain in the area is likely to be clear of the ballpark, but it is worth monitoring up until first pitch. 

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins

The riskiest game of the day has a legitimate chance of an in-game delay and a non-zero chance of postponement. We will need to keep a close on eye on the radar leading up to roster lock and first pitch. 

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies 

Most likely plays dry but there is a small chance of rain. 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Let's get into today's core pitching plays for our DFS lineups

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (Weather Permitting)

There is no doubt Tarik Skubal is the most talented pitcher on the slate. It is far less clear if he is the best DFS play on the slate. The concern comes around the slate-leading salary on a Coors Field slate and some potentially dicey weather much more than the fact Skubal was uncharacteristically knocked around a bit in his last start. 

Among qualified starting pitchers, Skubal leads the league with a 33.8% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate. He has as much upside as any pitcher in the game and is completely matchup proof. If the weather is clear, Skubal is the clear-cut SP1 on the slate. 

Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins 

Marlins righty Edward Cabrera continues to impress in a breakout season. He is coming off his best start of the year where he struck out 11 Braves over 8 innings of one-run ball. A drastic improvement in his walk rate paired with his above average strikeout stuff has allowed Cabrera to work deep into games this season with plenty of DFS upside. 

The matchup comes against a Cleveland offense that has been below average (89 wRC+) all season. Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez are still excellent and do not strike out, but the current version of the lineup contains plenty of strikeouts beyond them. Five of the hitters in the projected lineup have struck out more than 24% of the time versus right-handed pitching this season. 

Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo hasn't had the most consistent season, but he is underpriced for his skillset and matchup on DraftKings. The salary on DK will leave him as an extremely popular option on this short slate, especially if the weather does not cooperate in Minnesota. 

As for the matchup, Luzardo gets a date with a Nationals offense that owns an 86 wRC+ against lefties this season. Strikeouts have also been an issue for the Nats against southpaws. With Dylan Crews expected to return from the IL today, the Nats projected lineup contains six hitters with a strikeout rate above 24.5% against lefties. Five of those hitters are above 30.5% strikeouts against lefties this season. 

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians 

Bibee has allowed at least four runs in six of his last seven starts. That is not exactly what we are looking for when choosing DFS pitchers, especially when we factor in the below average strikeouts, but we are dealing with a short slate and limited options. 

To make matters worse, the Marlins have been a sneaky good offense against righties this season. They own a 103 wRC+ on the season with just a 20.7% strikeout rate. The recent promotion of Jakob Marsee has further lengthened the lineup.  

On a bigger slate, I would recommend staying away from Bibee. Even on this short slate, the top three pitchers (Skubal, Cabrera, Luzardo) are so far ahead of the field that I would only dip to Bibee in lineups where salary is a huge issue. 

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins (Weather Permitting)

If you can't stomach the recent form of Bibee, Bailey Ober presents another interesting option. At least he is coming off a one-run, six-inning start against the Royals. 

Ober comes with a troubling dip in strikeouts this season, but at least the walk rate is still elite. 

A matchup against the Tigers offense is also not ideal, but they have cooled off in the second half. Since the All-Star break, the Tigers have posted a 93 wRC+ and the 2nd-highest strikeout rate in baseball. It is still a dangerous lineup and Ober is nothing more than a desperation move for salary.   

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Let's check out today's core plays to build our lineups around.

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Arizona Diamondbacks in Coors Field 

The Diamondbacks are in the best spot on the slate as they begin a series in Coors Field. Opposing pitcher Bradley Blalock has managed to strike out just 11.2% of the batters he's faced this season. He is allowing a massive .218 ISO to lefties and the D-backs happen to have two superstar lefties in Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll. 

Geraldo Perdomo has also been excellent against righties, and his premium lineup spot and platoon advantage should help him pay-off an otherwise exorbitant salary. 

Adrian Del Castillo has strong numbers in the minors and will take his swings from the left side. 

Lourdes Gurriel and Blaze Alexander are righties with above average power numbers, and Tyler Locklear slugged 19 home runs in Triple-A before he was the main return for Eugenio Suarez at the trade deadline.  

Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck and Colorado Rockies vs. Eduardo Rodriguez 

The Rockies gave D-backs lefty Eduardo Rodriguez problems in his last start as he struggled with his command. E-Rod issued five walks and allowed five runs in 5.1 innings in that start. Now, he must face the same offense in consecutive starts in a more hitter-friendly ballpark this time around. 

The Rockies offense has been much better over the last couple months. They rank in the top 10 in ISO and wOBA for the second half of the season. Hunter Goodman and Jordan Beck both sit around .250 ISO versus righties, while Brenton Doyle is above .200 ISO against righties. Ezequiel Tovar has been solid as well. In much smaller samples, Warming Bernabel, Kyle Karros and Braxton Fulford have also performed well. 

Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Philadelphia Phillies vs. Brad Lord 

Nationals righty Brad Lord has had some success splitting his work between the bullpen and rotation this season. He has posted a 2.70 ERA and 60% groundball rate over his last four starts, so we are not talking about a terrible pitcher here. Lord has also posted a 60% groundball rate and 6.4% walk rate in those four starts, but those rates are much stronger against righties than lefties. 

A brief overview of Lord's skillset leaves a clear picture of how to attack him. We want lefties and preferably fly-ball lefties. The Phillies happen to have two sluggers who profile perfectly against Lord's primary skillset. Hello, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. 

Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott also hit left-handed and have above average fly-ball rates, but their typical lineup order is not ideal for a stack. That makes the Phillies more of a power-hunting spot than a full stack. 

Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and New York Mets vs. Bryce Elder 

Coors Field is likely going to be a popular place to target offense for our field of opponents, which could leave the Mets in an excellent low-owned spot against Bryce Elder. The Braves righty has struggled to a 6.12 ERA this season while posting just a 17.9% strikeout rate. He does have some groundball ability and better control against righties, but he has also struggled to keep the ball in the park, which puts the full stack in play. 

Juan Soto leads the Mets with a .280 ISO against righties, followed closely by Pete Alonso at .256 ISO. Francisco Lindor, Cedric Mullins and Brett Baty all check-in above .200 ISO versus righties, with Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte sitting just below that mark. 

This is a powerful Mets lineup facing a pitcher that has struggled to limit power this season.  

Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene and Detroit Tigers vs. Bailey Ober 

Speaking of pitchers who have struggled to limit power, the Twins Bailey Ober has allowed a career-high 2.01 HR/9 this season. His strikeouts have also dipped all the way down to 18.2%. Righties have hit Ober harder than lefties dating back to last season, but lefties have still hit him plenty hard (.219 ISO). 

Spencer Torkelson (.216 ISO), Kerry Carpenter (.289 ISO) and Riley Greene (.300 ISO) are three sluggers in the middle of the lineup that are going to present the biggest challenge for Mr. Ober. 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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