Welcome to the Fantasy Alarm MLB DFS Playbook for Monday, July 28th! 

We have a 12-game main slate in store for us this evening on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:05 PM ET. Today, we have plenty of talent on the diamond and many different ways to build your lineups. Our expert analysis is here to guide you through the top pitchers, value plays, and stackable offenses to target.

Whether chasing big GPP prizes or grinding cash games, we’ve got you covered with insights tailored to today’s matchups. Let’s jump right into the key plays and strategies to dominate the slate!

 

This season's MLB DFS picks and playbook will consist of a pitcher and hitter core players section with written analysis, player pool grid and core stacks section.

The core player section should be used as a starting point for all lineups, you may not be able to use all players in the same lineup, but those players should be the building blocks for you on a given night.

The player pool grid will feature both players from the core player section along with additional plays to help you build a complete lineup. The grid will be broken into top priced players, mid-priced players and value tier players.

The stacks section will bring you are favorite lineups stacks for the day and which players we would look to include in those stacks based on matchups and pricing.

Check out the MLB DFS Show to get an initial outlook on the day's MLB DFS slate to give you a good base for the start of your research each day! 

Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting.

 

MLB DFS Picks & MLB Playbook

MLB Weather: Monday, 7/28

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

It looks like the rain in the area will miss the ballpark. Check back closer to lineup lock, but it looks like the game should play fine. 

Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins

There is a risk for severe weather that could impact the late innings. Timing of the storms will be the key here, so make sure you are checking for updates. 

 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Let's get into today's core pitching plays for our DFS lineups

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Framber Valdez has recorded a quality start in 15 of his 20 outings this season. The lefty pairs an above average strikeout rate with an elite groundball rate that makes him one of the most consistent starters in baseball. You're getting an extremely high floor here in a matchup with the Nationals, who have been a below average offense (90 wRC+) against lefties. Valdez gets the majority of his upside from length and run prevention, but he will occasionally spike a high strikeout game. He has three double-digit strikeout performances in the last 60 days. 

Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Cristopher Sanchez has been a breakout star for the Phillies rotation, pitching to 2.40 ERA with all the peripherals to back it up. The lefty has delivered a massive bump in his strikeout numbers up to 26.7% this season, while maintaining elite walk and groundball rates. The matchup against the White Sox looks great on paper, but they have been a much better offense lately. In fact, they rank 4th in ISO and 2nd in wOBA since the All-Star break. I have no idea if that level of production will continue, but it is at least worth noting. Sanchez has been in elite form, not allowing more than one run in any of his last six starts. He also has two double-digit strikeout performances in that stretch. 

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Jacob deGrom has been consistently great this season and gets a high-strikeout matchup with the Angels. The Rangers righty did face the Angels earlier this month and was a bit underwhelming, allowing three runs and tallying just five strikeouts in five innings. He has racked up 17 strikeouts in 12 innings since that start, so I wouldn't sleep on his upside in this spot. The Angels of course counter with loads of right-handed power, but deGrom has been dominant against righties. Righties have managed just a .087 ISO and 3.9% barrel rate off deGrom this season. 

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves 

The strikeouts for Spencer Strider are still up at an elite 29.6% despite working with a fastball about two clicks lower than the pre-surgery version. The leash is nearly back to elite also, as Strider has thrown at least 100 pitches in three of his last four starts. He gets a matchup with a Royals offense that ranks bottom-5 in ISO and wOBA this season. The only drawback is they also only strike out at 17.8%, which is the 2nd-lowest rate in the league. 

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs 

Matthew Boyd has tossed 20 consecutive scoreless innings over his last three starts, and he has racked up 21 strikeouts in that stretch. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in an outing since a May start against the Reds. The Brewers and Cubs are deadlocked atop the NL Central, so there should be a playoff-type atmosphere at American Family Field this evening. The Brewers have been an average offense (101 wRC+) against lefties this season that lacks significant power. Their .118 ISO against lefties ranks just 26th in baseball. 

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

This one is not for the faint of heart, but the payoff could be massive. We have an inexperienced Chase Burns who has allowed over 40% fly balls, 11% walks, and 1.66 HR/9 facing the Dodgers in Great American Ballpark. What could go wrong? 

I totally understand if the risk is too great and you can't get to Burns today, but I think the upside is worth rolling the dice on in tournaments. Burns has a 35% strikeout rate in through 21.2 innings career innings, and his SIERA (3.07) and xFIP (2.89) tell us he has deserved far better results than his 6.65 ERA so far. The Dodgers have also been in a freefall offensively, as they have posted just a .155 ISO and .289 wOBA, with a below average 89 wRC+ in July. Their strikeout rate in July sits at 24.4%, 5th highest in baseball. Burns will needs to limit the walks and keep the ball in the yard, but the strikeout upside is huge. 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Let's check out today's core plays to build our lineups around.

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Cal Raleigh and Seattle Mariners vs. JP Sears

The Mariners facing a fly-ball lefty in Sutter Health Park? Yes, please. Athletics lefty JP Sears has allowed 1.86 HR/9 overall and 2.70 HR/9 at home this season. The Mariners are the top stack of the day and MLB HR leader Cal Raleigh, who owns a ridiculous .465 ISO against lefties this season, is the top bat on the slate. Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena are the other elite options, both with an ISO above .250 against lefties. The production thins out after that, but Dylan Moore and Mitch Garver both have significant career success against lefties. JP Crawford and new addition Josh Naylor have both struggled against lefties this season, but both were good in lefty-lefty matchup last year. 

Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Philadelphia Phillies vs. Davis Martin 

Davis Martin may have some groundball skills against lefties but he also owns a comically low 12.8% strikeout rate against them. The Phillies happen to have two elite flyball lefties in Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper that matchup perfectly against Martin. Max Kepler is another lefty with an elite flyball rate and a .166 ISO against righties this season. Brandon Marsh is closer to league average with fly balls and his ISO has slipped this season, but I am still interested given the matchup. Ditto, Bryson Stott. Righties Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto should not be forgotten either, as Martin allows power to both sides of the plate and doesn't generate as many groundballs against righties. The Phillies are an elite stacking option today.  

Sean Murphy and Atlanta Braves vs. Rich Hill

Good on Rich Hill for making it back to the big leagues in his age 45 season. He is an ultimate competitor and survived his first outing against the Cubs, but I do not believe there is still a Major League skillset here. He posted a 5.22 ERA and allowed nearly 2.0 HR/9 in the minors prior to his call up. Sean Murphy has been the Braves standout bat versus lefties this season, with a .379 ISO. Jurickson Profar posted a .201 ISO last season against lefties and has been great in a small sample since his return. Matt Olson continues to post strong numbers in lefty-lefty matchups. Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley have both been better against righties this season, but I am highly interested against the diminished skills of Hill. It is also not crazy to play former lefty mashers Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies even they have really struggled against lefties this season. 

Corey Seager and Texas Rangers vs. Jack Kochanowicz

The Rangers are back in the Wild Card hunt after winning nine of their last 10 games. They get a matchup against ground-ball pticher Jack Kochanowicz today. The righty has allowed a massive .205 ISO and 10.1% barrel rate to lefties this season, so Corey Seager immediately jumps off the page as the top option. Josh Smith and Evan Carter are lefties who have posted above average numbers across the board against righties. When looking to the righties, I am hunting for fly-ball profiles to offset the groundballs of Kochanowicz. Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia are both above a 33% fly-ball rate this season, with Garcia posting an above average .192 ISO. The 15.5% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate of Kochanowicz are highly attackable numbers, which make the Rangers a great stack. 

Nick Kurtz and Athletics vs. Luis Castillo 

This is more of a power hunting spot than a full stack, as Luis Castillo is still an above average pitcher. The Mariners righty has been more vulnerable to lefties, with a .164 ISO allowed compared to a.109 ISO against righties. Nick Kurtz posted maybe the best offensive game ever over the weekend, as he went 6-for-6 with four home runs. The big lefty has an absurd .427 ISO against righties this season. Lawrence Butler and Tyler Soderstrom are the other lefties with an above average ISO against righties. For the righty bats, Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers are always playable on their own, and Jacob Wilson is fine in a stack. The A's do have an implied team total above five runs in an elite hitter's park, so a stack is not out of the question. 

 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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