MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Thursday Playbook

Looking for the best MLB DFS picks and lineup strategy for today’s DraftKings and FanDuel slate? The Fantasy Alarm team breaks down every game on the board, identifying the top pitching targets, elite hitter stacks, and high-upside contrarian plays to target in both cash games and GPP tournaments. Check Fantasy Alarm’s MLB DFS pitcher projections and hitter projections for the data-driven edge to build winning lineups across DraftKings and FanDuel. Before locking your roster, verify the MLB weather tool for any late-breaking environmental changes, run your builds through the Fantasy Alarm MLB lineup optimizer, and check MLB DFS ownership percentages before finalizing any GPP entry to find the contrarian stacks where the leverage lives.

Slate Weather Alert

This is a four-game Thursday slate with hitting weather at multiple venues and a clean bill of health across the board. Atlanta at San Francisco has been postponed.

• Yankee Stadium (CWS @ NYY): Warm temperatures with 15+ mph winds blowing out toward center field and low air pressure conditions. One of the best hitting environments on the slate. The combination of the short dimensions at Yankee Stadium and conditions favorable to fly ball distance makes this the highest-priority game environment tonight.
• Sutter Health Park (LAA @ ATH): Hot, clear, winds blowing out. Sutter Health Park in Sacramento is a power-friendly environment, and June temperatures create a consistent run-scoring amplifier. Gage Jump pitches here at home for the Athletics and Jose Soriano for the Angels, putting both pitchers in a park that punishes mistakes.
• Citi Field (NYM vs PHI): 88°, 16% chance of precipitation, 16 mph winds blowing out. The rain risk is manageable but worth monitoring close to first pitch. If the weather holds, this is a strong offensive environment. Ryan Weathers pitches at Yankee Stadium and Sean Manaea is at Citi Field, so watch for any weather updates in the New York area.
• Kauffman Stadium (STL @ KC): Comfortable temperatures around 72°, light breeze blowing out, no rain concerns. A clean, neutral environment with modest wind aid for hitters.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

Ryan Weathers (L, NYY vs CWS)

Weathers has emerged as one of the better strikeout arms in the American League in his first season with the Yankees, generating a 90th percentile strikeout rate and 79 K across 70 innings, tied for sixth-most in the AL. His overall numbers, a 3.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, reflect a pitcher whose command has occasionally wavered but whose swing-and-miss ability remains elite. Against left-handed batters specifically, his FIP drops to 2.96 and his xFIP to 2.49, with a K/9 of 12.56 across a meaningful 14.1-inning sample in that split. Against right-handed batters, he runs a 4.78 FIP but manages a 3.65 xFIP with a 9.15 K/9, reflecting genuine two-way ability even if the platoon advantage is more pronounced. The White Sox lineup carries a 112.7 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, the third-highest mark on this slate, which is what creates the dual-sided market in this game. Weathers is the top pitcher; the White Sox are also a legitimate contrarian stack against him. Both can be true, and tonight’s conditions make it even more interesting. Yankee Stadium has 15+ mph winds blowing out and favorable air pressure. At $9,100 DK and $9,000 FD, he’s the anchor arm tonight.

Gage Jump (L, ATH vs LAA)

Jump made his MLB debut on May 26 and has been one of the better stories in baseball since. Through four starts, he’s 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA, 19 K, and just 6 BB. More telling is the recent trajectory: over his last 18.1 innings he’s posted a 1.99 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP, and his most recent outing was 6.1 scoreless innings against Houston. The 23-year-old lefty generates deception from a lower arm slot that gives his 92-94 mph fastball (touching 97 mph) real hop at the top of the zone. The Angels carry a 97.0 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, the second-lowest mark on this slate, which is the analytical cornerstone for his lineup matchup tonight. The one significant caveat is the park: Sutter Health Park in Sacramento at June temperatures is a power-friendly environment, and Jump will need to limit mistakes over the plate. His xFIP of 3.91 against right-handed batters across 17 innings suggests the underlying process is sound. At $7,800 DK he is meaningfully underpriced relative to his $10,000 FD cost, making him a premier DraftKings value at a salary that unlocks access to a full Sacramento stack alongside him.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Sean Manaea (L, NYM vs PHI)

Manaea’s 2026 story requires context. He began the year in the New York bullpen after his velocity dropped in spring training, struggled to a 6.85 ERA in early appearances, but then settled into a 3.09 ERA over his next 11.2 innings before the Mets moved him back to the rotation on May 30. Since returning to starts, the results have improved further: his most recent outing on June 13 was six innings with zero walks against an Atlanta lineup that is one of the better offensive units in baseball, and manager Carlos Mendoza was direct afterward about what he saw. The 34-year-old holds a 4.78 ERA and 1.35 WHIP across 49 innings for the season, but his Statcast profile tells a more optimistic story, with an xwOBA of .318, a 38% hard-hit rate against, and a barrel rate of just 9.2%. Philadelphia carries a 86.3 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, the second-lowest mark of any team on this slate. His split against left-handed batters is genuinely elite: a 2.57 FIP and 2.18 xFIP with an 11.65 K/9 in 17 innings. The match between his best split and Philadelphia’s weakest team context is the play here. At $6,500 DK and $6,800 FD, Manaea is the most analytically layered value arm on tonight’s slate.

Matthew Liberatore (L, STL @ KC)

Liberatore is a salary-relief option built around a favorable team matchup and a manageable park environment. Kansas City carries an 88.1 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, the lowest mark on the slate, and Kauffman Stadium provides a clean, weather-free environment with a light breeze out but no significant home run park factor. His overall numbers, a 4.46 xFIP and 4.60 FIP against right-handed batters across 54.2 innings, are workable in this context. His 10.13 K/9 against left-handed batters in a small 16-inning sample reflects real swing-and-miss ability when he has the platoon advantage. At $6,000 DK and $7,200 FD, Liberatore is the budget arm that allows a build to allocate salary to both a Yankee Stadium stack and a Sacramento stack in the same lineup.

Top Options for Strikeouts

• Ryan Weathers: 12.56 K/9 vs LHH, 9.15 K/9 vs RHH, 90th percentile K rate, 79 K on the season
• Gage Jump: 1.99 ERA / 0.88 WHIP in last 18.1 IP, 19 K in 4 MLB starts, deceptive arm slot
• Sean Manaea: 11.65 K/9 vs LHH, 2.18 xFIP in that split, improved velocity
• Aaron Nola: 9.61 K/9 vs RHH with a 2.72 xFIP in that split, FIP 3.39 vs RHH (30+ IP sample) — contrarian K upside
• Jose Soriano: 9.86 K/9 vs RHH, 2.88 FIP in that split — strikeout ceiling before the park inflates everything else

Best Odds for a Win

• Ryan Weathers / Yankees (NYY vs CWS): NYY heavily favored at home with Weathers carrying the best process metrics on the slate
• Gage Jump / Athletics (ATH vs LAA): ATH favored at home in Sacramento, Jump coming off his best recent stretch
• Aaron Nola / Phillies (PHI @ NYM): PHI road favorite, Nola among the best in the sport vs right-handed batters
• Noah Cameron / Royals (STL @ KC): KC home at Kauffman, Cameron solid at home

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Top Hitters

Ben Rice (1B/C, NYY vs CWS)

Rice has turned his sophomore season into one of the best offensive runs in the American League. His current line, .300/.393/.638 with 17 home runs, 44 RBI, an OPS of 1.031 and an OPS+ of 184, has him tied with Aaron Judge for the Yankees’ team home run lead and second in all of baseball in both slugging percentage and OPS. Against right-handed pitching specifically, his wRC+ sits at 182.6 with an ISO of .355, the second-highest individual mark of any hitter in tonight’s slate. He faces a Chicago pitching plan tonight at Yankee Stadium that uses Bryan Hudson as an opener ahead of Sean Burke. Burke carries a 4.53 FIP and 4.48 xFIP against left-handed batters across 43.1 innings and is expected to handle the bulk of the workload once Hudson turns it over. Rice is a left-handed hitter targeting precisely that split in one of the best hitting environments on the board. The combination of elite production, elite park conditions, and an exploitable pitcher split makes Rice the clearest individual bat on the slate. At $5,900 DK and $4,300 FD, he is the anchor of the NYY stack and a legitimate top individual pick regardless of stack affiliation.

Juan Soto (OF, NYM vs PHI)

Soto’s 2026 profile reads as well as any hitter’s in the game: a 93.1 average exit velocity, a 49.4% hard-hit rate, a .398 wOBA, a .418 xwOBA, and a 15.9% barrel rate confirm that the production is process-driven rather than variance-aided. He faces Aaron Nola tonight, and Nola’s split against left-handed batters is the analytical headline of this entire slate. His FIP against LHH across 36 innings sits at 5.57 with an xFIP of 4.90 and a walk rate north of 13%. Soto is a left-handed batter, and his wRC+ against right-handed pitching is 175.4 with a .306/.420/.590 slash and an ISO of .284. Citi Field tonight carries 88-degree heat with 16 mph winds blowing out. One caveat: a 16% precipitation chance is worth checking at first pitch, but if the game goes, Soto against Nola’s LHH split in those conditions is among the highest-upside individual matchups on the board. At $6,100 DK and $3,900 FD, the price is firmly in play for any Mets-centered build.

Nick Kurtz (1B, ATH vs LAA)

Kurtz carries the highest individual wRC+ against right-handed pitching of any hitter on tonight’s slate at 188.6, with a .302/.471/.599 slash and an ISO of .297. He has been one of the best hitters in the game for the better part of two months, generating elite exit velocity, a 23.8% walk rate that suggests elite plate discipline, and consistent over-the-fence production. Tonight he faces Jose Soriano at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Soriano carries a strong 2.79 ERA, but against left-handed batters his FIP is 4.81 and his xFIP is 3.88 across 45 innings, a meaningful split vulnerability against one of the best left-handed hitters in the league. Sutter Health Park amplifies the offense: the heat and park dimensions create a run-scoring environment that has produced consistent power production all season. At $6,500 DK and $4,500 FD, Kurtz is the stack anchor and one of the three must-consider individual bats on this four-game slate.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Jazz Chisholm (2B, NYY vs CWS)

Chisholm is the salary relief piece that makes the NYY stack buildable at the price points required to access both Rice and a Sacramento-game investment. His wRC+ against right-handed pitching sits at 102.8 with an ISO of .173, which is workable upside at $4,400 DK and $3,200 FD in a Yankee Stadium lineup that has 15+ mph winds blowing out and one of the best individual matchup bats in the game at the top of the order. Chicago is using Bryan Hudson as an opener ahead of Sean Burke tonight, and Burke’s vulnerability against left-handed batters gives the entire NYY stack a consistent directional edge once the bulk innings begin. Chisholm contributes enough pop and on-base potential to justify the roster spot in a lineup where the value elsewhere is significant.

Blaze Jordan (3B, STL @ KC)

Jordan carries a 171.4 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is one of the better marks on this entire slate — but it comes with an important caveat: that number is built on just 16 plate appearances. At $2,300 DK and $2,600 FD, the floor matches the sample size risk. He faces Noah Cameron, who carries a 4.35 FIP and 3.68 xFIP against left-handed batters across 16 innings. Kauffman Stadium is a clean environment with no weather concerns tonight. The argument for Jordan is pure upside leverage in the Cardinals vs Cameron contrarian stack: if the sample is real, the power is genuine, and this becomes one of the best value plays on the board. Treat it as the high-variance ceiling piece it is rather than a cash-game foundation.

Lane Thomas (OF, KC vs STL)

Thomas is the salary anchor on the Kansas City side of the STL @ KC matchup, giving access to the home KC lineup at Kauffman Stadium against Matthew Liberatore for $3,200 DK and $2,500 FD. His wRC+ against right-handed pitching is 99.5, which is right around league average, but his 14.0% walk rate adds on-base value beyond the slash line suggests. Liberatore’s FIP against right-handed batters is 4.60 with a 7.74 K/9 across 54.2 innings. Kansas City as a team carries an 88.1 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, which is the weakest mark on the slate, but Thomas gives cheap exposure to a favorable home environment for anyone building a KC value play alongside Liberatore or fading the STL side.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: New York Yankees vs. Sean Burke

Why: New York carries a 113.4 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, the second-highest team mark on this four-game slate. Chicago is deploying Bryan Hudson as an opener before handing the ball to Sean Burke, who carries a 4.53 FIP and 4.48 xFIP against left-handed batters across 43.1 innings. The majority of the NYY lineup’s premium bats have platoon advantage against right-handed pitching, and Burke is expected to face the heart of this order once the opener turn is complete. Yankee Stadium tonight features 15+ mph winds blowing out toward center and low air pressure conditions. Ben Rice at 182.6 wRC+ and ISO .355 is the clear anchor. Cody Bellinger adds a 138.4 wRC+ and a 14.4% barrel rate to the middle of the order. Paul Goldschmidt’s split against right-handed pitching (97.5 wRC+) understates his overall profile, and he is dangerous regardless of platoon against a hittable arm in a homer-friendly environment. The NYY stack is the primary build of the night.

Players to Stack: Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, Paul Goldschmidt.

Primary Stack: Athletics vs. Jose Soriano

Why: Sutter Health Park in Sacramento is a power-friendly environment and tonight it pairs with a right-handed pitcher who carries a 4.81 FIP and 3.88 xFIP against left-handed batters across 45 innings. Soriano’s 2.79 ERA is a legitimate number and his 9.86 K/9 and 2.88 FIP against right-handed batters in a separate split are excellent, but the ATH lineup leads with left-handed production at the top, and at Sutter Health Park the margin for error against Soriano’s weaker LHH split disappears entirely. Nick Kurtz anchors this stack at a 188.6 wRC+ vs RHP. Shea Langeliers adds a 193.5 wRC+ against left-handed pitching for diversified multi-split exposure. Tyler Soderstrom rounds out a lineup that has produced consistent power in this environment all season.

Players to Stack: Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom.

Contrarian Stack: Cardinals vs. Noah Cameron

Why: St. Louis carries a 103.5 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, above average for this slate, and Cameron’s FIP against left-handed batters is 4.35 with an xFIP of 3.68 across 16 innings. The Cardinals’ lineup at Kauffman Stadium has multiple legitimate pieces at prices that create real salary flexibility. Alec Burleson at $4,000 DK with a 175.3 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is the standout value on this slate: that is an elite production number at a near-minimum price. Jordan Walker adds a 138.0 wRC+, JJ Wetherholt contributes a 119.3 wRC+, and Blaze Jordan’s 171.4 wRC+ in a small sample provides a high-variance ceiling kicker. This is a contrarian stack that pays off when the Cardinals hit, and the lineup construction is cheap enough to stack elsewhere simultaneously.

Players to Stack: Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, JJ Wetherholt, Blaze Jordan.

Contrarian Stack: White Sox vs. Ryan Weathers

Why: Weathers is the top pitcher on this slate and also creates the most interesting contrarian market of any game tonight. Chicago carries a 112.7 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, the third-highest team mark on the board, and Weathers’ FIP against right-handed batters is 4.78 with an xFIP of 3.65 across 60 innings, a split that the right-handed pieces of the CWS lineup can target. At Yankee Stadium with winds blowing out, even modest production translates to real DFS scoring. This is a split-squad slate: use Weathers in cash games and lineup builds that want the safe pitching floor, while using the CWS stack in GPP builds that want differentiation from the expected chalk pitcher ownership. Very few lineups will have both, which is exactly the kind of low-correlation leverage that wins large-field tournaments.

Players to Stack: Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth, Colson Montgomery.

Contrarian Stack: Phillies vs. Sean Manaea

Why: Manaea’s xFIP against right-handed batters sits at 5.02 across 32 innings, one of the more exploitable right-handed-batter splits of any pitcher on tonight’s slate. Philadelphia’s team wRC+ against left-handed pitching is 86.3, the second-lowest on the board, but that number is suppressed by the lineup’s weaker pieces and understates what the individual right-handed bats can do against Manaea specifically. Kyle Schwarber’s 170.2 wRC+ against left-handed pitching is elite and represents the clearest individual angle in this entire stack. Bryce Harper’s struggle vs LHP (80.4 wRC+) is the mitigating factor, but the pieces at the right price points, Schwarber, Alec Bohm, and J.T. Realmuto, create a viable contrarian build against a pitcher whose platoon vulnerability against right-handed batters is real. Citi Field’s conditions (88°, 16 mph out) support the upside.

Players to Stack: Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner.

Contrarian Stack: Mets vs. Aaron Nola

Why: Nola is a legitimate pitcher when facing right-handed batters, carrying a 3.39 FIP and 2.72 xFIP in that split with a 26.2% K rate. But against left-handed batters his FIP balloons to 5.57 and his xFIP to 4.90, with a walk rate over 13% and a WHIP of 1.78 across 36 innings. The Mets’ lineup leads with Juan Soto, the most damaging individual left-handed bat on this slate against exactly this kind of right-handed pitcher. A.J. Ewing and Brett Baty add left-handed bats at value prices for anyone building depth in this stack. Carson Benge gives cheap LHH exposure in the bottom of the order. Citi Field at 88° with 16 mph winds blowing out amplifies the upside when left-handed bats make contact. NYM’s 88.6 wRC+ against right-handed pitching as a team is weak on the surface, but the left-handed subset of that lineup is a completely different animal against this specific Nola split.

Players to Stack: Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, A.J. Ewing, Brett Baty, Carson Benge.

MLB DFS Lineups: Core Hitters & Pitchers