Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for the Thursday, July 9th early slate. Our projections blend advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, and team-level matchup data to identify the sharpest plays for this five-game window on DraftKings, with FanDuel carrying a sixth game exclusive to its Early-Only slate. Whether you are building through our DFS optimizer, tracking confirmed lineups, or hunting value at the bottom of the pool, this playbook covers every key position across both sites.

This slate skews pitching-forward early in the day, with two of the board's better arms anchored in Cleveland and Tampa Bay, while several offenses in bounce-back spots give the hitter pool real thump. Weather is a lingering theme across the Eastern Time Zone openers, with a couple of games at real risk of a delay. Value is plentiful at the bottom of both builds, and there's no shortage of directions to attack the stacks.

Build smarter with Fantasy Alarm's full DFS toolkit: pitcher and hitter projections, our weather tool, the lineup optimizer, and ownership percentages, all in one place.

Slate Weather Alert

• PNC Park (Braves @ Pirates, 12:35 PM ET): 84°F with a 30% precip chance. A cluster of storms is firing up nearby, and the expectation is that it holds south of the ballpark, but it's worth watching for a delay.
• Citi Field (Royals @ Mets, 1:10 PM ET): 83°F with a 42% precip chance building through the afternoon. A round of storms is expected to reach the ballpark, and there's real risk of an early delay or a lengthy hold.
• Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Cubs @ Orioles, 1:35 PM ET, FD Only): 86°F with a 66% precip chance. Baltimore moved the first pitch up to get ahead of the incoming rain, and that early jump looks like it should work.
• Target Field (Guardians @ Twins, 1:40 PM ET): 79°F, 0% precip. Clean conditions with nothing to monitor.
• Rate Field (Red Sox @ White Sox, 2:10 PM ET): 81°F with a 47% precip chance. Any rain that shows up should stay light enough to not be a factor.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Drew Rasmussen (TB)

Rasmussen has quietly built one of the better strikeout profiles in the sport, sitting on a 2.78 ERA to go with a matching 3.30 FIP that says the run prevention is real, not lucky. He also gets a Yankees offense that's completely fallen off a cliff, striking out 17 times in back-to-back games against this same Tampa Bay staff earlier this week, a franchise first. Their strikeout rate specifically against Rasmussen sits at 31.2% over the last two weeks, well above their season mark against right-handers, and the dome at Tropicana Field also takes weather off the table entirely.

Gavin Williams (CLE)

Williams has been a strikeout machine all year, and the swing-and-miss traits travel well against a Minnesota lineup that has actually held up fine against right-handers at a 112 wRC+. The appeal here is pure ceiling: his FIP sits nearly a full run below his ERA, which points to better results still coming, and the Twins carry one of the higher strikeout rates on the board against right-handed pitching.

Michael Wacha (KC)

Wacha has quietly turned in a 3.45 ERA and gets a Mets offense that has been below-average against right-handed pitching all season at a 91 wRC+. He's not going to rack up double-digit strikeouts, but the matchup is soft enough that the floor should hold up even in a lineup spot without swing-and-miss stuff.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Patrick Sandoval (BOS)

Sandoval makes his long-awaited Red Sox debut today, more than two years removed from his last big-league outing with the Angels back in June 2024. His rehab assignment was a mixed bag overall, with a 4.60 ERA and shaky command (6.3 BB/9) across six Triple-A starts, before he settled in for a strong final tune-up at Double-A Portland, tossing 5 shutout innings with 7 strikeouts. He gets a White Sox lineup that's been roughly average against left-handed pitching at 102 wRC+, and the command questions from his Triple-A stint are the bigger swing factor here than the matchup itself.

Sean Manaea (NYM)

Manaea's ERA sits at 5.40 across a small five-start sample, but the K/9 north of 8 says the swing-and-miss stuff is still there even while results have lagged. He gets a Kansas City lineup that's been middling against lefties at a 96 wRC+, and the price reflects the rough results more than the underlying stuff.

Bailey Ober (MIN)

Ober is back from a five-week stint on the injured list with right elbow inflammation, and it capped a season that had already gone sideways: his fastball velocity sits at a career-low, and his blow-up start in Pittsburgh right before landing on the IL saw him get charged with eight runs in less than five innings. His two minor-league rehab starts weren't much cleaner, either, with hitters piling up 13 hits in 8 1/3 innings. He does get a Cleveland lineup that's been just short of league-average against right-handed pitching all season at 94 wRC+, but the workload and rust questions here outweigh the matchup. Treat him as a lower-floor, moderate-ceiling piece today.

Top Options for Strikeouts

These are the strikeout prop lines carrying the strongest recent over leans on today's slate, plus the slate's top overall arm.

• Drew Rasmussen: line sits at 6.5, the highest number on the board, and even though the recent trend favors the under (7 of his last 10 turns), that's more about a slow market adjusting than his stuff, especially with the Yankees swinging through everything right now.
• Gavin Williams: line sits at 5.5, and the over has cashed in 7 of his last 10 starts, the strongest strikeout trend of anyone we're rostering today.
• Michael Wacha: line sits at 4.5, with the over hitting in 7 of his last 10 outings.
• Mitch Keller: line sits at 3.5, and the over has hit in 6 of his last 10 starts, worth knowing even lining up as the opponent in our Atlanta stack.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Juan Soto (OF, NYM)

Soto has been an entirely different hitter against right-handed pitching this year, running a 180 wRC+ and a .321 ISO that both dwarf the rest of his own lineup's numbers against righties. He sits in the two-hole against Wacha today, and the individual split matters far more here than the team-level number around him.

Matt Olson (1B, ATL)

Olson is locked into the three-hole for a Braves lineup carrying the highest implied total on the board, and his 140 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is right in line with the profile of a hitter you build around. Keller has struggled to miss bats or limit contact quality this year, and Olson is exactly the kind of hitter built to punish that.

Junior Caminero (3B, TB)

Caminero has feasted on left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a 178 wRC+, and Tampa Bay drawing a lefty starter today lines that split up perfectly. He's confirmed in the three-hole, and the power upside here is as real as any bat on the slate.

Pete Alonso (1B, BAL) (FanDuel Only)

Alonso's individual number against lefties hasn't been loud this year, but the real story is David Peterson, who's limped to an 8.49 ERA and a walk rate that's been a problem all season. Alonso's raw power still plays in nearly any matchup, and a start this shaky from the opposing arm is worth attacking regardless of the platoon split.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Romy Gonzalez (1B/2B, BOS)

Gonzalez has mashed left-handed pitching in a small sample this year, and he sits in the four-hole today facing a White Sox lefty. The sample size is thin, but the price point makes him an easy add if the early returns hold.

Chase DeLauter (OF, CLE)

DeLauter has settled into an everyday role and the three-hole for Cleveland, and while his overall numbers against right-handers sit right around league-average, the opportunity and price are the real draw here. He's a rookie finding his footing, and min-priced everyday bats are worth a look on any slate.

Andruw Monasterio (2B/SS, BOS)

Monasterio has quietly posted strong work against left-handed pitching this season, and he's the cheapest bat in a Red Sox lineup that offers several paths into the same favorable matchup. Rock-bottom price with everyday playing time is the kind of combination worth rostering.

Coby Mayo (3B, BAL) (FanDuel Only)

Mayo has been outstanding against left-handed pitching this season, and he lines up in the five-hole behind Alonso against a struggling David Peterson. At his price point on FanDuel, he's one of the better power bets on the board.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Kansas City Royals vs Sean Manaea (NYM LHP)

Why: Manaea's results have been rough this year even with strikeout stuff intact, and Kansas City has been a solidly average unit against left-handed pitching at a 96 wRC+. The floor here comes from Manaea's shaky command more than a dominant team-level matchup.

Targets: Bobby Witt, Salvador Perez, Lane Thomas, Nick Loftin

Primary Stack: Baltimore Orioles vs David Peterson (CHC LHP) (FanDuel Only)

Why: Peterson has been one of the least effective starters on the slate, carrying an ERA near 8.50 and a walk rate that's put him in trouble all year. Baltimore's team splits against lefties are unremarkable, but an arm struggling this badly is the more important number in the equation.

Targets: Coby Mayo, Taylor Ward, Adley Rutschman, Pete Alonso

Primary Stack: Atlanta Braves vs Mitch Keller (PIT RHP)

Why: Atlanta carries the highest implied run total on the board, and while their team number against right-handers is only average, Keller has struggled to miss bats or keep the ball in the park all season. A soft arm paired with the slate's best offensive environment is a combination worth building around.

Targets: Michael Harris, Matt Olson, Mauricio Dubon, Drake Baldwin

MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks

“Contrarian” Stack: Chicago White Sox vs Patrick Sandoval (BOS LHP)

Why: Sandoval is making his first start back today, and season debuts always carry pitch-count and rust risk that the public tends to underweight. Chicago has been roughly average against lefties this year at 102 wRC+, giving this lineup a real path if Sandoval's command isn't sharp out of the gate.

Targets: Miguel Vargas, Randal Grichuk, Colson Montgomery, Chase Meidroth

“Contrarian” Stack: New York Mets vs Michael Wacha (KC RHP)

Why: The Mets have been a below-average unit against right-handed pitching as a team, which should keep public rostering light here, but Juan Soto's individual split against righties is elite enough to carry the rest of the lineup on his own. Wacha has been effective, so this is a pay-up pivot rather than a pure value play.

Targets: Juan Soto, A.J. Ewing, Francisco Alvarez, Jared Young, Carson Benge

“Contrarian” Stack: Chicago Cubs vs Trevor Rogers (BAL LHP) (FanDuel Only)

Why: Chicago has been the best offense on the board against left-handed pitching this season at a 117 wRC+, and Rogers has been inconsistent enough (4.70 ERA, sub-5.00 xFIP) to make this a legitimate top-of-the-slate stack that should come in underowned simply because it's confined to FanDuel's Early-Only slate.

Targets: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson

“Contrarian” Stack: Tampa Bay Rays vs Yankees (Bullpen Game)

Why: New York is turning to a lefty opener in a compromised rotation spot today, and while Tampa Bay's team number against left-handed pitching isn't loud on paper, a shorthanded Yankees pitching plan in the dome is the kind of soft-landing spot that can pay off big at low ownership.

Targets: Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Ryan Vilade, Jonathan Aranda

“Contrarian” Stack: Boston Red Sox vs Anthony Kay (CWS LHP)

Why: Kay's 4.32 ERA looks solid on the surface, but a FIP near 4.80 says the results have outrun the process, and Boston has actually hit left-handed pitching well this year at 112 wRC+ as a team. This isn't a glamour stack given the price tags involved, but the underlying matchup numbers hold up on both sides of the ball.

Targets: Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Andruw Monasterio, Connor Wong, Romy Gonzalez