Happy Friday, April 10th. We have a full main slate on DraftKings locking at 7:07 PM ET. Tonight's card has a little bit of everything - chalk pitching with legitimate process behind it, a handful of arms drawing almost no ownership against offenses that should be scoring, and a couple of hot bats the field hasn't fully caught up to yet. There are also some value stacks built around pitchers who have struggled this season rather than favorable park environments. Make sure you are checking for the most up-to-date MLB DFS projections, lineup optimizer, ownership projections, and daily MLB DFS lineups. As always, we'll break it all down and give you the edges to build around. Let's get into it.

⚡ THE SLATE DASHBOARD

  • Slate: 7:07 PM ET Lock | DraftKings Main
  • Top Game Totals: Top Game Totals: LAD/TEX - Dodgers face Kumar Rocker  • MIL/WSH - Brewers face Jake Irvin •  MIN/TOR - Buxton gets Corbin  • COL/SD - Rockies in San Diego, Buehler on the mound
  • SP Ownership Tier: Tyler Glasnow (LAD, highly owned)  • Kris Bubic (KC, highly owned) •  Tatsuya Imai (HOU, low-to-moderately owned)  • Connelly Early (BOS, moderate)
  • Highest K-Projections: Tyler Glasnow (LAD)  •  Kris Bubic (KC)  •  Tatsuya Imai (HOU)  • Emerson Hancock (SEA)
  • Weather: Clean across the board. No weather concerns.

💎 PITCHING COACH

The Top Tier

Tyler Glasnow (LAD | vs TEX)

Analysis: Glasnow is the chalk arm today and he earns it. He's holding opponents to a .204 wOBA and a .240 expected wOBA, with a 31.3% hard-hit rate against him. Hitters are not getting to him. Texas comes in at a .313 wOBA and 21.4% K-rate against right-handed pitching this season - about middle of the pack as a team - but the real angle is who is pitching for them. Kumar Rocker is making just his second start of 2026 and logged a .319/.386/.522 split against left-handed hitters last season, with the Dodgers lineup stacked with LHH. Glasnow against this combination is the right cash play.

Kris Bubic (KC | vs CWS)

Analysis: Bubic is a lefty and the White Sox carry the highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching in baseball right now at 30.9%. Their wOBA against LHP is .322 and their wRC+ in that split sits at 110, so they're not a total punching bag, but the swing-and-miss rate is what matters for DFS upside - and it is excellent. Bubic posted a 2.55 ERA in 116 innings before a shoulder injury ended his 2025 season. The K-rate ceiling against CWS is real.

Tatsuya Imai (HOU | at SEA)

Analysis: I think people saw the debut line and checked out. The second start showed the real version: 5.2 innings, 58 of 94 for strikes, nine strikeouts. He now has 13 punchouts in 8.1 innings. Here's what makes this spot excellent: Seattle ranks as the fourth-worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitching in 2026, sitting at a .286 wOBA, 28.4% K-rate, and 91 wRC+. Imai's splitter barely showed up in his debut at 9.5% usage - the pitch his own teammate called the most unhittable in spring. At low-to-moderate ownership and $1,100 below the chalk, this is the tournament edge.

Value Plays

Connelly Early (BOS | vs STL)

Analysis: Full transparency on the Cardinals split: St. Louis is actually one of the better lineups against left-handed pitching this season, posting a .359 wOBA and 128 wRC+ in that split with a very low 16.9% K-rate. That is not ideal for Early from a team-matchup standpoint. The reason to take him anyway is salary construction - he frees up enough money to get to elite hitters, his personal strikeout profile is solid, and moderate ownership gives you more differentiation than Glasnow or Bubic. Eyes open on the matchup, but the build logic still works. We are betting on his personal talent here.

Emerson Hancock (SEA | vs HOU)

Analysis: I'll be direct about this: Houston is the third-toughest matchup for a right-handed pitcher on the entire slate. The Astros carry a .374 wOBA, 146 wRC+, and just a 16.5% K-rate against RHP this season - they are a nightmare for a pitcher trying to rack up strikeouts. Hancock threw six hitless innings with nine Ks against Cleveland to open the year and followed that up with an impressive outing against the Angels. The upside is real, but this is a pure ceiling bet in large-field GPPs. Do not force this into cash lineups.

💎 HITTING COACH

Elite Bats

Shohei Ohtani (1B/OF, LAD)

Analysis: The Dodgers carry a .377 wOBA and 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 2026 - second best in baseball. Ohtani bats left-handed against Kumar Rocker, which is where the individual matchup gets elite. Rocker allowed a .319 batting average, .386 OBP, and .522 slugging to left-handed hitters last season before getting sent to Triple-A. His slider, his primary weapon against LHH, lost its effectiveness as 2025 wore on. Ohtani is hitting .267 on the year with 3 HR and 8 RBI. His Statcast numbers are elite - a .393 wOBA, .444 expected wOBA, 27.3% barrel rate, and 93.6 average exit velocity. The team-level data and the individual matchup both point to the same answer.

Christian Yelich (OF, MIL)

Analysis: Milwaukee is fourth in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2026 at .357 with a 125 wRC+. Yelich is a left-handed hitter going against Jake Irvin, whose numbers vs. LHH in 2025 were some of the worst in baseball - lefties hit .286/.351/.554 against him with a .384 wOBA. He allowed 26 home runs to left-handed hitters alone across 100.2 innings, posted a 6.53 ERA and a 6.41 FIP in that split, and struck out just 14.9% of LHH he faced. Yelich is hitting .372 with 10 RBI through 12 games, the Brewers are 8-4 and have scored over 60 runs, and Irvin is at 0.43% ownership. The individual split tells you everything you need to know.

Wilyer Abreu (OF, BOS)

Analysis: Boston sits 21st in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching at .303, so the team-level split does not make this a premium stack environment. What makes Abreu worth it anyway is the individual: he is hitting .383 with three home runs, has hit safely in multiple games this week, and barely anyone is rostering him. Dustin May's 2026 Statcast numbers are alarming - a .402 expected wOBA allowed and a 55.2% hard-hit rate. His actual wOBA against is .579. He is getting demolished regardless of the hitter's handedness. Abreu is the one bat on the Red Sox who has genuinely earned his production and the market is ignoring him.

Byron Buxton (OF, MIN)

Analysis: Minnesota is 17th in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season at .300 with a 93 wRC+. The team-level split is not the reason to play Buxton today - the pitcher is. Corbin has been getting destroyed by right-handed hitters throughout his career decline, historically posting wOBAs well above .380 against RHH, and his 4.40 ERA with Texas in 2025 continued the pattern. Buxton bats right-handed, has a 50% hard-hit rate and 91.5 average exit velocity on the year, and was just moved back to leadoff after hitting .154. The results catch up to the contact quality and Corbin is where it happens.

Value Bats (Salary Savers)

  • Hyeseong Kim (2B/SS, LAD):  LAD is second in baseball vs RHP at .377 wOBA and 138 wRC+. Kim bats left-handed against Rocker who had a .319 average/.522 slugging vs LHH in 2025. At $2,300 with multi-position eligibility, he is the cheapest way into the best matchup on the card.
  • Amed Rosario (2B/3B, NYY):  The reason Rosario is in the conversation has nothing to do with the Yankees as a team against left-handed pitching - that split is genuinely terrible. It's about Rosario himself. He hit .302 with four home runs in 122 plate appearances against LHP in 2025 and is specifically in this lineup because he hits lefties. If he gets slotted near the top of the batting order today, the upside at $2,500 is real. 
  • T.J. Rumfield (1B, COL):  This is a pure fade-Buehler play. Buehler posted a 4.93 ERA across 26 starts in 2025 split between Boston and Philadelphia and has carried that struggles into 2026. Rumfield bats left-handed against a right-hander who has historically been more vulnerable to LHH. At 0.48% ownership in a game the field is ignoring, this is the tournament differentiator.
  • Austin Martin (OF, MIN):  RHH vs Corbin (LHP). MIN is 17th in wOBA vs LHP at .300, so the team-level environment is middling, but Corbin is the target - not the split. Stack depth at $3,200.

🏗️ THE STACKING BLUEPRINT

Primary Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

Targets: Ohtani ($6,500), Tucker ($6,000), Freeman ($5,000), Muncy ($3,800), Kim ($2,300) | 

Opponent: Texas Rangers / Kumar Rocker | LAD implied

The Dodgers are second in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching at .377 with a 138 wRC+ and a 20.6% K-rate - they make contact, and they hit it hard. Rocker's 2025 split against LHH was .319/.386/.522 and his inability to retire lefties is what got him demoted to Triple-A in August. The Dodgers fill out the top of their lineup with left-handed bats from Ohtani through Freeman and Tucker. 

Primary Stack: Milwaukee Brewers

Targets: Yelich ($5,500), Contreras ($4,900), Turang ($5,100), Bauers ($3,800), Mitchell ($3,600)

Opponent: Washington Nationals / Jake Irvin | MIL implied

Milwaukee is fourth in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching at .357 with a 125 wRC+ and a 20.9% K-rate. They rank in the top five in every relevant offensive category vs RHP. Irvin finished 2025 with a 5.70 ERA, the most home runs allowed in the majors at 38, and a 15.8% strikeout rate. He allowed LHH to bat .247 with a .325 wOBA in 2025. Yelich and Turang are left-handed bats at the top of this order. 

Primary Stack: Minnesota Twins

Targets: Buxton ($4,900), Keaschall ($4,200), Bell ($3,600), Martin ($3,200), Jeffers ($3,300) | 

Opponent: Toronto Blue Jays / Patrick Corbin | MIN implied

Minnesota is 17th in wOBA vs LHP at .300 and 93 wRC+ - the team-level split is middling and not the reason to stack them. The reason is Corbin. He's been crushed by right-handed hitters throughout his career decline, running wOBAs consistently above .380 against RHH, and his 4.40 ERA with Texas in 2025 continued the trend. Buxton, Keaschall, Bell, Jeffers, and Martin all bat right-handed. Buxton has a 50% hard-hit rate and 91.5 avg EV. The Twins stack is a pitcher-specific play, not a team-split play.

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox

Targets: Abreu ($4,800), Duran ($4,600), Anthony ($5,100), Contreras ($4,100) | 

Opponent: St. Louis Cardinals / Dustin May | BOS implied

Boston is 21st in wOBA vs RHP at .303 and 91 wRC+ - not a premium offensive environment in the split data. What overrides that is Dustin May's 2026 Statcast disaster: a .402 expected wOBA against, a .579 actual wOBA against, and a 55.2% hard-hit rate. He is getting crushed. The BOS lineup's early-season underperformance is why Abreu is at 4.6% ownership despite hitting .417 with three home runs. That ownership gap is the play.

Contrarian Stack: Colorado Rockies

Targets: Rumfield ($3,000), Moniak ($3,500), Goodman ($4,400), Julien ($2,800)

Opponent: San Diego Padres / Walker Buehler | COL implied

This is not an environment play - the Rockies are in San Diego at Petco Park, one of the more pitcher-friendly venues in the league. This is entirely about Walker Buehler. He posted a 4.93 ERA across 26 starts split between Boston and Philadelphia in 2025 and has carried that into 2026. Colorado is 10th in baseball in wOBA vs RHP at .330 and Rumfield, Moniak, and Julien all bat left-handed against a right-hander who has historically been more vulnerable to LHH. Rumfield at 0.48% ownership against a struggling pitcher the field isn't punishing is the tournament differentiator.

📈 THE LEVERAGE REPORT (GAME THEORY)

The "Chalk" (Popular)The "Pivot" (Low Owned)The Winning Logic
Glasnow (highly owned, RHP vs TEX)Imai (low-to-moderate ownership, RHP vs SEA)SEA has been below average against RHP this season and Imai's splitter barely appeared in his debut. Nine K in start two. The ownership gap between him and Glasnow is where tournament edges live.
MIL chalk (Yelich and Turang, LHH vs Irvin RHP)COL vs Buehler in San Diego (Rumfield, Moniak, Julien - LHH vs struggling RHP Buehler)Irvin allowed LHH a .384 wOBA, .554 SLG, and 26 HR in 100.2 innings in 2025 with a 6.53 ERA. The MIL LHH stack is obvious but justified. COL vs Buehler in San Diego barely rostered - this is a pure Buehler fade, not a park play. The field ignores it.
LAD chalk (Ohtani, Tucker, Freeman - LHH vs Rocker RHP)BOS vs May (Abreu, Duran, Anthony at low ownership vs Busted May)May has a .402 xwOBA and 55.2% hard-hit rate to open 2026. He's getting crushed. Abreu is at .417 with 3 HR and barely anyone is there.

🎯 Heart of the Order

The foundation for every lineup you build today.

SP1 Tatsuya Imai (HOU) | Nine strikeouts in start two and the best pitch in his arsenal barely showed up in start one. The ownership separation from Glasnow and Bubic is the tournament edge here.

Core Bat Christian Yelich (MIL) | Hitting .372 with 10 RBI and the Brewers sitting 8-4, facing a pitcher drawing almost no ownership. This is the easiest stack decision on the slate.

Core Bat Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | Three home runs, .383 average, hitting safely in five of six games, and barely anyone has him. The most underowned high-upside bat on the board.

Core Bat Byron Buxton (MIN) | Moved back to leadoff. Fifty percent hard-hit rate on Statcast. Gets Patrick Corbin. The regression game is tonight.

Value Core Hyeseong Kim (LAD) | $2,300 in the Dodgers stack against the most exploitable pitcher on the card at essentially zero ownership. Essential construction piece.

Value Core T.J. Rumfield (COL) | . Walker Buehler posted a 4.93 ERA in 2025 and hasn't turned it around. Rumfield bats left-handed against him in San Diego at 0.48% ownership. The fade-Buehler play the field isn't making.

Player Pool

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Stacks

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