Target Watch: The Target Explosion

After two relatively tame opening weeks of the NFL season, minds were blown with the explosive passing attacks we witnessed here in Week 3. There were 19 players (15 wide receivers, three tight ends and one running back) who recorded over 100 receiving yards, including one 200-plus yard day from A.J. Green, and collectively, those 19 players accounted for 20 of the 48 receiving touchdowns scored. It was a relative points bonanza for fantasy owners and shed a little more light on which players you should be targeting for use and which players need to continue to sit on the bench.

Let’s start with a look at the Week 3 Targets Leaderboard and from there we’ll move onto the overall.

Week 3 Target Leaders

Steve Smith, WR BAL – While things look great for Smith right now, keep in mind that he started last year like this and then fizzled after a number of weeks. The targets should continue while Crockett Gillmore is banged up and the other wideouts are working their way into some consistent work, but if there were ever a sell-high candidate, Smith would be it.

Chris Thompson, RB WAS – He saw some real nice targets, but much of it was late in the game with the Giants well ahead and Matt Jones suffering from goal-line fumble-itis. It seems unlikely that he will see this type of workload again in the near future, but keep him on your radar as both Jones and Alfred Morris need to really prove themselves.

Jeremy Kerley, WR NYJ – He’ll fade back into oblivion once Eric Decker returns from his knee issue.

Gary Barnidge, TE CLE – He was a phenomenal play once you realized that the Raiders can’t cover the tight end. He became the third-straight tight end to go over 100 yards against Oakland while also finding the end zone. Tougher match-up and the presence of Josh McCown should ruin him as a viable play moving forward.

Lance Dunbar, RB DAL – While Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden compete for touches, it seems that Dunbar is the consistent third-down back no matter who starts in the backfield. The Falcons defense is soft which is why it was so easy for him to rack up 100 yards, but he is only a viable play in PPR leagues when there’s a real soft match-up. At some point, defenses will catch on that Brandon Weeden throws to the check-down more than his receivers downfield.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

There are few certainties in life, two of which being death and taxes. However, there are also a number of certainties with regard to the pecking order for targets. Julio Jones is the Falcons top man. Demaryius Thomas plays that role for the Broncos. Larry Fitzgerald, Randall Cobb, Keenan Allen are the leaders on their teams. Heck, we all know that Greg Olsen plays that role for the Panthers. But there are a few interesting ones, which should also be noticed…

Michael Crabtree, WR OAK – He’s got a slight lead over Amari Cooper for the top target in Oakland and continues to establish himself as Derek Carr’s go-to guy to move the chains. But even more telling is the fact that Cooper, the expected deep threat, has zero red zone targets while Crabtree has four which makes up over 25-percent.

Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN – Where’s Mike Wallace? Where’s Charles Johnson? Exactly. Rudolph has not only become Teddy Bridgewater’s favorite target by a fairly significant margin, but he is also his go-to guy inside the red zone. Rudolph hauled in his first touchdown of the season this past week and he’s also grabbing two-thirds of all the red zone targets

Jason Witten, TE DAL – Remember Witten? He pulled a disappearing act for the last few years, but with no Dez Bryant and a quarterback who is incapable of throwing deep with any semblance of accuracy, Witten is, once again, front-and-center in the Cowboys passing game. He’s seeing slightly more than 23-percent of the targets and the only one who comes close to him right now is running back Lance Dunbar. The old guy’s got value again!

Red Zone Target Leaders

Tyler Eifert, TE CIN – We all know that this is A.J. Green’s domain, but the fact that Eifert has seen the same number of red zone looks, even though he stunk it up this week, should be encouraging to his owners. He’s got a bit of a tough match-up this week against the Chiefs who rank 10^th in the league against tight ends, but the opposition has also thrown an average of 10 passes per game to the position against them through three weeks. That’s a pretty significant total.

Stevie Johnson, WR SD – Don’t go sleeping on Stevie just yet as he seems to be Philip Rivers’ favorite red zone target through three weeks. Keenan Allen helps stretch the field and is the obvious deep threat, but Johnson leads the team with a red zone target percentage near 30-percent. Yes, it’s only one more target for right now, but see how things spread out over the next couple of games.

Jermaine Kearse, WR SEA – While I don’t see Kearse holding his position on the Overall Targets Leaderboard, he could continue to be a strong red zone threat this season. Jimmy Graham leads the team in red zone target percentage, but Kearse comes in second ahead of Doug Baldwin. Should the trend persist, he could make for a nice play in TD-only leagues and deeper standard-scoring formats.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 4 Match-Up to Watch

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers – The expectation is that the Packers are going to absolutely light up the 49ers this week. The Bay Area’s “finest” have allowed the sixth-most passing yards this season and opposing quarterbacks have an average passer rating of 111.6 against them. That means Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb and James Jones are going to shred them. But don’t count out Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith if he plays. There’s something to be said for garbage time and the 49ers have shown that they’re willing to air it out in the second half if they need to catch up. Look for the Packers to stuff the run and force Colin Kaepernick into airing it out as much as possible.