Fantasy baseball can be a tough game to navigate at this time of year. Yesterday’s lesson was all about patience -- understanding how an abbreviated 2022 spring training can have an adverse effect on things like a hitter’s timing or a starting pitcher’s arm strength. That’s why you see so many MLB managers micromanaging their teams this early. Your daily fantasy baseball advice for today is to not overreact. We are seeing some outstanding performances right now and you don’t need some fantasy baseball team analyzer to tell you just how hot these MLB players are coming out of the gate, head and shoulders above the rest. But before you start flipping out, be sure to investigate the player deeper before you anoint him as the next big thing. If a deep dive into a player’s analytics isn’t your thing, let the Fantasy Baseball Daily Round Up help.

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Highlights

 

Is Jesús Luzardo This Year’s Robbie Ray?

 

 

It’s actually a valid question, given Luzardo’s incredible performance for the Miami Marlins on Tuesday where he tossed five innings of one-run ball and struck out 12 against the Los Angeles Angels. Last season, we watched Ray, a guy left on the proverbial scrap heap and not touched in fantasy baseball drafts until the late rounds, turn everything around with improved command and no fear of pounding the strike zone. He was always a high-strikeout guy, but he issued way too many walks and would get hit around after falling behind in the count and was forced to throw it over the plate. He was working on his command and something clicked last spring where he also saw an uptick in velocity. The rest is explained in his 2021 stat line and that Cy Young award sitting on his mantle. 

Now, we don’t want to get too excited, but Luzardo has been going through something very similar. He spent the offseason working on his command, saw an uptick in his velocity while pounding the strike zone and confidently posted a 0.77 ERA with 10 strikeouts over 11.2 innings. We’re not saying he’s completely turning things around and is an early NL Cy Young candidate, but these are the patterns you look for in a pitcher. Last night’s results were impressive and offer up a lot of hope, especially given Luzardo’s raw talent and the promise he showed coming up through the Oakland farm system. A classic post-hype sleeper if you will. And as a result, this is where you take that shot. Try him out and see. Don’t be afraid of a bump in the road at some point, but everything about this start screams, “take a chance on him.”

Is Alex Cobb Also This Year’s Robbie Ray?

 

 

The better comparison here, I think, is Kevin Gausman. Cobb was never a big strikeout, but last year, we witnessed a bit of a transformation as he improved his command on his change up and started to throw it with more confidence. His strikeout rate jumped while most of his peripherals stayed the same which brought on a strong improvement of his ratios. Gausman also improved his command on a pitch, his split-finger fastball, and then landed in San Francisco where they helped him further those enhancements. He saw an uptick in his velocity as well and posted one of his best seasons of his career. Can the Giants pitching coach Curt Young do the same with Cobb? It’s definitely possible. If you listened to the latest episode of the Ante Up podcast, you’ll hear Adam Ronis gushing. He’s a bigger fan than I am, but I am always willing to take a closer look when the evidence is presented to me like this.

Tylor Megill Enjoys Another Scoreless Outing with His Uptick in Velocity

 

 

Yes, here’s another one to watch. Megill has gained 2 mph on his fastball, but hat looks even more impressive is his changeup. The numbers, according to FanGraphs.com, are eye-popping as his 85-mph change is now registering at 90 and the difference, along with the increased fastball velocity is confusing hitters. The results are obviously impressive. Megill’s K-rate in the minors was always strong and we saw enhanced command last year. Ronis was gushing over him on Ante Up as well, but I need to see a little more at this level before I’m fully convinced. Fortunately, I will be in New York on Monday night to watch him pitch at CitiField, so I’ll have a more first-hand evaluation then. 

Cleveland Guardians Outfielder Steven Kwan Having an Historic Start to the 2022 MLB Season

 

 

OK, so now here is where we tell you to pump the brakes on the excitement level. Kwan has now hit safely in all five games this season, he’s 10-for-15 with seven walks and now has three extra-base hits with seven runs scored and four RBI. He’s serving as the Guardians No. 2 hitter and is getting all sorts of tasty pitches to hit, batting in front of a white-hot José Ramírez. But here’s the thing – Kwan is not going to be able to keep this pace up. No one can. It’s a phenomenal start and if you were lucky enough to snag him off the fantasy baseball waiver wire, you’re reaping the benefits. But as I said at the top of the article, you have to take a deeper dive into the player. What Kwan is doing right now is amazing, but when his bat returns to Earth, what kind of a player are we looking at here? He doesn’t have any real power. Maybe he hits you 10 home runs this year? He also not a great base-stealer. In fact, since 2018 he’s stolen 20 bases and been caught 10 times. So aside from batting average and runs scored, what is he doing for you in the counting stats for fantasy baseball? Not too much. Yes, he’s only 24-years-old and maybe he’s made some adjustments to open the season, but what happens when the pitchers make their counter-adjustments? This is someone who should be considered a sell-high candidate right now. I bet someone is willing to pay for what they’ve seen and that’s how you win a trade.

Yu Darvish Gets Blown Up by the San Francisco Giants

 

 

This is where the panic hits the fantasy baseball community. Darvish looked fantastic this spring and all signs were pointing towards a comeback. He opened the season with six no-hit innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks and fantasy baseball owners started to hop on the bandwagon. Wow. Boy, did they ever get smacked in the face. Nine earned runs? Nine? Over just 1.2 innings? Yes, it’s early, but an outing like that is downright destructive for your ratios. Think about it – six no-hit innings followed up by last night leaves him with a 10.57 ERA. We’re going to need our other starters to really shine before we can clear that mess off the board and I say “we” because I’m right there with you. I won’t bench him for his next start so I can wait and see if he rights the ship. I believe he will and every bit of a better outing is needed from him right now. People are going to be afraid to use him this weekend against the Atlanta Braves, but you have to fight through this. If he gets blown up like this again, then we can start to worry. But from everything I witnessed during the spring and in his first start, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Albert Pujols hits Home Run No. 680

 

 

The romantic side of baseball here as Pujols is looking to reach 700 career home runs and he wants to do it where his historic, Hall of Fame career began. He took Kansas City Royals lefty Daniel Lynch deep to left field in the first inning and Busch Stadium went bonkers. He got his curtain call and we begin our 2022 home run countdown for him. No, he is not someone to add as he looks to bang another 20 dingers. He’s really only going to play against lefties, so the only real contribution you’re going to get is if you find a lefty bat that also platoons and you can make daily moves in your league. Again, we just love the story.

 

 

MLB Rookies

 

Seiya Suzuki Hits Two Home Runs to Lead the Chicago Cubs to Victory

 

 

Whether it’s the beginning of the 2022 MLB season or the end, few people are coming out to enjoy a Cubs/Pirates game. Unless you have Suzuki on your fantasy team, that is. So far, the latest import from Japan is very much living up to the hype. The question everyone always asks is whether or not the power will translate from Japan to the U.S. and, right now, you have to say yes. Take the spring numbers and this effort against the lowly Pirates with a grain of salt if you like, but Suzuki looks fantastic at the plate. While we may be seeing a near-30-percent strikeout rate through the first four games, we’re also seeing him draw walks and get on-base in very timely situations. Three home runs and eight RBI aren’t too bad either. He’s been the front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year for a while and you’ve already missed your opportunity to lay some action on a +230 bet. His current performance already has the odds down to +175. If you have him in fantasy, enjoy the ride.

 

 

MLB Injuries

 

Cincinnati Reds Outfielder Tommy Pham Day-to-Day with Hand Injury

 

 

Breathe a sigh of relief that the x-rays came back negative. Pham collided with teammate Nick Senzel during Tuesday’s loss to the Guardians and suffered an apparent hand injury that had the Reds immediately sending him off for tests. There is no break or fracture even and it looks like Pham will be fine. Cincinnati plays early here on Wednesday and we already see that he’s not in the Reds lineup. Consider him day-to-day but it looks like fantasy owners dodged a bullet.

Brandon Crawford Leaves Giants Game with Wrist Injury

 

 

The team is saying Crawford was removed for precautionary reasons and manager Gabe Kapler downplayed the injury. No word on x-rays or other tests, so the assumption for now is that he just bent it back and maybe suffered a slight sprain. He should be considered day-to-day and you should probably make arrangements to replace him in your lineups. He could miss a game or two so check the MLB daily lineups.

Washington Nationals Scratch Nelson Cruz on Tuesday with a Groin Injury

 

 

This was a real late scratch, about 20 minutes prior to first-pitch, so many fantasy owners and DFS player got screwed. The team had him take part in some pregame drills to test it out and evaluate the injury, but we have yet to receive any updates as to how much time he could actually miss. The hope is that he’s day-to-day, but we’ll just have to wait until further tests are run Wednesday. Prepare to be without him for today, though.

Robbie Grossman Leaves Tuesday’s Game with Groin Tightness

 

 

Another guy we’re waiting on tests for to see just how much time he could miss. Grossman felt tightness after he was doubled off at first base and was removed from the game immediately. Manager A.J. Hinch met with the media afterwards and said there is some fear that it might be a strain, but you’ll have to check for additional updates here on Wednesday. You can probably expect him to be out of the lineup for a couple of days, but again, don’t do anything rash until you hear official word.

 

 

Wednesday’s Free MLB Best Bets

It was another solid night for the MLB best bets on Tuesday, though it lacked the perfection we had on Monday. We were all set until Salvador Perez hit his second home run of the game in the eighth inning off Cardinals reliever Génesis Cabrera, a useless bomb that screwed us on the run-line. Fortunately, we hit on the over 4.5 runs for St. Louis and then came out even more on top when the Astros pulled out a late victory over the Diamondbacks to hook us up with our money line bet.

Yesterday’s Best Bets: 2-1

MLB Season Best Bets: 5-1

Here’s what I like for Wednesday, April 13:

 

 

Corbin Burnes against the Baltimore Orioles? Yeah, we like that. But what about John Means at home, with the fences in left moved back and facing a Brewers team that has already shown signs of struggles against southpaws? I kind of like that too. Both pitchers are capable of going deeper into games than most and I know the Milwaukee bullpen is strong. The Orioles’ bullpen? Well, let’s just look to them to minimize damage. How about that?

Pick: Brewers/Orioles Total Runs UNDER 8 (-115 on DK Sportsbook)

 

 

Am I really buying into last night’s 2-1 game between the Astros and the Diamondbacks? Well, when it was Luis García vs Madison Bumgarner, yes. Just like we’re buying into tonight’s match-up of Framber Valdez vs Merrill Kelly. Valdez is ready to carry his Opening Day momentum where held the Angels scoreless for 6.2 innings, into his second start and he gets a much softer lineup to do it against. Meanwhile, Kelly has looked sharp this spring and went four scoreless with seven strikeouts in his season debut. The defense behind both is solid and each one of these pitchers knows how to get the opposition to mash the ball into the dirt.

Pick: Astros/Diamondbacks Total Runs Under 8.5 (+100 on DK Sportsbook)

 

 

The Reds will be sending another rookie to the mound in lefty Nick Lodolo and while most are eye-balling a red-hot Guardians offense, I think it cools off today. I’ve just really been impressed with Lodolo and actually thought he’d make the starting rotation before Hunter Greene did. He’ll show off those skills today and we’ve actually got history on our side as the favorite has won in each of the last 12 meetings between these two clubs in Great American Ballpark. Risky? Maybe to some, but there’s a reason the money line is what it is.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds Money Line (-130 on DK Sportsbook)

As always, you can also find more free MLB bets over on Pickswise.com.

 

 

Related Articles: