Chalk Stack(s)
Houston Astros vs. Ariel Miranda
The Astros were very fond of left-handed pitching in 2017 and have carried that over to ‘18. Thus far this season they rank in the top-five in OPS, wOBA, ISO, SLG and wRC+ against southpaws. There was only one pitcher in baseball in ‘17 who allowed more home runs than Miranda and that was Rick Porcello . What’s really intriguing about his numbers last year is his fly ball splits. Left-handers lifted the ball 38.5-percent of the time, which is a pretty decent mark, but righties put the ball in the air at a 55.5-percent clip.
Miranda happens to making his first start of the year on Tuesday and opens up as a big 155 underdog. He actually has decent success against the Astros BvP wise, but the ‘Stros took him deep seven times over 30 innings in 2017. 32 of Miranda’s 37 homers allowed last season came against right-handed bats.
George Springer is where my stack will begin, however. Springer has four hits off of Miranda and all four are homers, went deep on Monday and now has four home runs against left-handers this season already. Max Stassi could be an interesting source of value in an Astros stack if he starts. He drew the start Monday against left-hander James Paxton and has as many at-bats (10) as Brian McCann does against LHP. Stassi’s 3-for-10 with a .566 wOBA against LHP in the early going.
Primary Option(s): George Springer , José Altuve , Carlos Correa , Alex Bregman
Secondary Option(s): Max Stassi , Jake Marisnick , Evan Gattis
Oakland Athletics vs. Miguel González
Vegas has opened up their lines and Oakland is a heavy favorite and has the third highest implied run total of the day. The reason? Miguel González . Gonzalez has been roughed up his first two starts, posting an 8.68 ERA while allowing 2.89 HR/9. Gonzalez has given up a 30-percent line drive rate and a 32.5-percent hard hit rate through two starts...NOT GOOD!
He wasn’t much better in 2017 either so this poor pitching is likely going to be a trend. He was especially bad against left-handers. He allowed a .284/.347/.510 slash with a .360 wOBA. Another huge plus we have going for us is the fact that Gonzalez isn’t a huge strikeout guy (14.5-percent vs. RHH, 14.8-percent vs. LHH in ‘17) and Oakland can be strikeout happy at times, but if he is not missing bats, he’s in trouble.
I’m willing to use both lefties and righties here, starting with the Matt’s; Olson, Joyce and Chapman. Joyce has the BvP advantage going 9-for-27 with one homerun and a .429 wOBA. Olson has the power upside, especially against right-handed pitching. He went deep on Monday night for the third time of the year and now has an .831 OPS versus righties. He’s been especially dominant against RHP thus far in his career (2016-’18) posting a .614 SLG, .348 ISO, .406 wOBA and a 40.4-percent hard hit rate. Chapman has been on fire in the early goings hitting .312 with an OPS north of a 1.000. All his power has come against righties, too, as he’s secured a .681 SLG and a .453 wOBA.
We shouldn’t forget about Khris Davis or Jed Lowrie either. These two will hit third and fourth in the Oakland lineup. Davis hit 36 of his 43 home runs against right-handed pitching last season while Lowry’s already hit .326 with four bombs and a .457 wOBA against them as well.
Primary Option(s): Matt Olson , Matt Chapman , Matt Joyce , Jed Lowrie
Secondary Option(s): Khris Davis
Contrarian Stack(s)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tyler Chatwood
Both teams in this matchup are projected to score 4.5 implied runs on Tuesday so it’s a pretty evenly matched game. Tyler Chatwood really struggled his last time out surrendering five earned runs over five innings. Righties have hit .300 against Chatwood in the early going and lefties aren’t far behind at .280. He’s only allowed one home run this season but has a 40-percent fly rate against righties so he’s left something to be desired.
Cardinals batters have destroyed right-handed pitching in the early going ranking in the top-10 amongst all teams in average, slugging, OPS and wOBA. Jose Martinez leads the pack as he’s hitting .388 with three home runs, 14 RBI and a .465 wOBA. Yadier Molina , Marcell Ozuna and Tommy Pham are all also hitting .280 or better versus right-handed pitching.
Dexter Fowler has been in the midst of a solid stretch of baseball as well. He’s posted at least 11 DK points in four of his last six games. .194 is the mark I’m looking at right now. That’s Matt Carpenter ’s BABIP and there is no chance it’s going to stay like that. Chatwood has been worse throughout his career against left-handed bats (.349 wOBA vs. LHH, .325 wOBA vs. RHH), so Carpenter is firmly in play if stacking St. Louis.
Primary Option(s): Jose Martinez , Jose Molina, Dexter Fowler , Marcell Ozuna , Tommy Pham
Secondary Option(s): Matt Carpenter , Paul DeJong
San Diego Padres vs. Alex Wood
We don’t generally enjoy targeting multiple hitters in Petco Park, but here we are. The Padres have been fantastic against left-handed pitching this year ranking in the top-10 in average, slugging, OPS, isolated power, wOBA and wRC+. Wood has not looked like the same pitcher he was last year as he gave up seven earned runs in his last start.
Going up and down the list, the sample sizes are the largest, but a lot of Padres’ have had success against Wood in the past. Freddy Galvis is 7-for-16 for a .438 AVG while Hunter Renfroe , José Pirela and Christian Villanueva have all taken him deep. Renfroe has a .975 OPS against LHP on the year which is actually down from 2017’s mark of 1.077. Pirela was moved into the lead off spot this past weekend, is hitting over .300 and has five multi-hit games over his last eight contests. Maybe the best play of them all is Christian Villanueva . He’s homered in three straight games and has two or more hits in three of his last four games.
Alex Wood ’s peripheral stats are pretty much on par with last year’s numbers, but he is allowing a 20-percent line drive rate to lefties and a 30-percent hard hit rate to righties. The hard-hit rate is consistent with last year’s mark too (32-percent) so the right-handers are the ones to target here.
Primary Play(s): Christian Villanueva , José Pirela , Hunter Renfroe , Freddy Galvis
Secondary Play(s): Austin Hedges , Eric Hosmer