Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Sunday’s MLB slate is another loaded one with 15 games on the schedule. The action gets started early and lasts all day long. As always, we have plenty of ways to go for MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props and other picks to consider. 

The MLB picks below are accurate as of this writing, but some odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 8/17

Our MLB Best Bets Today feature Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants hosting the Tampa Bay Rays. Plus, the Houston Astros will try to hold off the Baltimore Orioles. Don’t miss more MLB picks and player props below. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Sunday’s baseball action. 
 

 

 

Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants Predictions: Sunday, August 17th

The Tampa Bay Rays and San Francisco Giants wrap up their weekend series on Sunday afternoon. Both squads are still trying to stay alive in their respective Wild Card races. We should see a lower-scoring game today based on the starting pitchers and notable offensive splits. 

Giants starter Logan Webb has looked shaky lately, with a 5.94 ERA over his past 6 starts. It’s been a far cry from the guy who had a 2.61 ERA at the end of June. Yet, today presents a prime buy-low spot as Webb is due for positive regression. 

The right-hander’s 2.61 FIP and 2.70 xFIP are notably lower than his current 3.34 ERA. Webb’s 26.2% strikeout rate (77th percentile) and 5.5% walk rate (89th) are still encouraging. Plus, his 20.7% K-BB% this season is a career-best mark. 

Webb should benefit from pitching at home here. He owns a 2.66 FIP at home this year and boasts a career 2.81 ERA in his San Francisco starts. Meanwhile, he’ll face a Tampa Bay offense that’s among the league’s worst on the road this season. Plus, the Rays are batting just .222 vs. righties this month (24th in MLB). 

On the other side, Tampa starter Ryan Pepiot has a 3.86 ERA this year. He’s also been up-and-down recently. Still, the right-hander is effective more often than not. He’s allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 9 of his last 15 starts. Plus, the Rays’ bullpen has a 2.33 ERA in August so far. 

Pepiot will face a slumping San Fran offense that’s averaging just 1.7 runs over the past 7 games. The lineup has especially struggled against righties. In the split over the past week, the Giants have a .262 wOBA (27th in MLB), .218 BA (22nd), and .609 OPS (27th). 

Let’s take the under for the full game and first five innings. Webb should hold the Rays in check, while Pepiot and the Tampa pen can do enough as well. 

 

 

 

Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros Predictions: Sunday, August 17th

After slumping a bit in July, the Houston Astros have gotten back on track. They’re 7-4 over the past 11 games as they try to hold off the red-hot Mariners in the AL West. The Astros hope to end their current homestand on a high note today against the Baltimore Orioles. 

Houston starter Cristian Javier gets the start today in a favorable matchup. He made his season debut last Monday with encouraging results. The right-hander earned the victory after allowing 2 runs with 5 strikeouts over 5 solid innings. His fastball velocity was up and he’s apparently added a sinker to his pitch arsenal.  

Javier now gets to face a Baltimore offense that’s been terrible against right-handed pitching lately. In the split over the past two weeks, the Orioles rank dead last in wOBA (.231), batting average (.160), and OPS (.503) with a 26.6% strikeout rate (27th in MLB). Departing with Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn, and Ramon Laureano at the Trade deadline has clearly downgraded the lineup against righties. 

Let’s count on Javier to take advantage of this matchup, especially at home. He owns a career 2.78 ERA at home. Plus, the Orioles have a .284 wOBA on the road this year (28th in majors). 

Meanwhile, the Astros should provide run support here. Baltimore starter Dean Kremer has been very inconsistent this season with a 4.17 ERA. He’s coming off an excellent home outing against the Mariners, but he also posted a 4.58 ERA over his previous 6 starts. 

Kremer’s home/road numbers are impossible to ignore at this point. He has a 5.42 ERA, .357 wOBA, and .296 BA allowed on the road compared to a 2.67 ERA, .258 wOBA, and .205 BA allowed at home. Those are night and day splits. 

The Orioles’ righty now takes on a Houston offense that’s averaging nearly 5 runs per game over the past 11 contests. Back the Astros to get the job done at home today. They start up a big series on the road at Detroit tomorrow and will want to head in with a comfortable victory. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 8/17

 

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