Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Sunday’s baseball slate is filled with 15 games on the schedule. We have every MLB team in action with games lasting all afternoon and night. There are a ton of ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props to consider. 

Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.
 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/11

Our MLB Best Bets Today start with the Sunday Night Baseball matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cleveland Guardians. Can Zack Wheeler anchor the road favorites to a convincing win?

We’ll also dive into a National League showdown between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets. Check out the MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Sunday’s baseball action. 

 

 

 

Phillies vs. Guardians Predictions: Sunday, May 11th

The Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians wrap up today’s games with a Sunday Night Baseball showdown. They’ve split the first two games of this series so far. The Guardians won 6-0 on Friday night before the Phillies took a 7-1 win on Saturday. Let’s find some winning MLB picks for this series finale. 

Zack Wheeler is on the mound for Philadelphia, immediately pointing us to the visitors. After a couple of shaky outings in April, he’s returned to ace form lately. Wheeler boasts a 2.70 ERA and an elite 38:3 K:BB ratio over his last four starts coming into today. He’s also allowed two runs or fewer in six of eight starts this season. 

Wheeler’s 2.36 xERA and 2.49 xFIP are both notably lower than his current 3.35 ERA, suggesting positive regression. The Phillies' right-hander also owns some elite advanced metrics. His 33.3% K rate is a career high and in the 93rd MLB percentile. Then there’s a .199 xBA (90th percentile), 31.7% whiff rate (87th), and 4.5% walk rate (89th). 

Even on the road tonight, Wheeler should keep it going. Cleveland has a bottom-tier offense at home this season, ranking 26th in the MLB in home wOBA, batting average, and strikeout rate. The Guardians are averaging just 3.0 runs per game over their last eight home contests. 

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia offense should get to Cleveland starter Luis L. Ortiz. The righty has struggled to a 5.30 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season. His 5.07 xERA and 4.23 FIP aren’t much better either. Ortiz’s 11.5% walk rate (19th percentile), 47.2% hard-hit rate (16th), and 13.2% barrel rate (9th) are concerning in tougher matchups. 

Ortiz just gave up five runs in his last outing against Washington. Plus, in his two toughest matchups this year, the Guardians’ starter allowed four runs to the Yankees and seven runs to the Padres. Another poor showing could be coming today against a tough lineup. 

The Phillies are a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching this season. Over the past week vs. righties, the Phils are crushing the split with a .365 wOBA (3rd in MLB), 132 wRC+ (4th), and .300 batting average (1st). They also have a low 17.3% K rate against right-handers over the past two weeks. 

Take Philly to cover the runline for both the full game and the first five innings. Trust Wheeler to best Ortiz while his offense provides plenty of run support. 

 

 

 

Cubs vs. Mets Predictions: Sunday, May 11th

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets wrap up their weekend series with a Sunday matinee matchup. The first two games of this series saw nine and 11 runs scored. Let’s bank on today’s finale following a similar script as we target the over. 

Cubs starter Matthew Boyd has an impressive 2.75 ERA this season. However, he’s likely due for negative regression based on a 3.77 FIP and 4.09 xFIP. Boyd began the year with a pair of scoreless outing,s but he has just a 3.81 ERA and 4.20 FIP over his last five starts. 

Boyd’s 22.0% K rate (51st MLB percentile) and 25.4% whiff rate (50th) are underwhelming advanced stats. Pitching to contact can easily backfire in today’s matchup. The Mets are a top-five offense against left-handed pitching this season (.352 wOBA, 127 wRC+). Over the past two weeks, the lineup is hammering lefties with a .437 wOBA and 185 wRC+. 

It could be a long afternoon for Boyd with how dominant New York has been in this split. The Mets are also averaging 5.4 runs per game over their last eight contests. The Chicago bullpen has just a 4.51 ERA as a group this season too. 

On the other side, Mets starter Griffin Canning boasts an impressive 2.50 ERA. Yet, he’s also due for negative regression with a 3.97 xERA and 3.38 FIP which are both notably higher. Canning has benefited from an unsustainable 87.3% left-on-base rate that’s bound to catch up to him. 

Plus, Canning’s 49.5% hard-hit rate (7th MLB percentile) and 9.8% walk rate (38th) are a bit worrisome in tougher matchups. Today qualifies as that. The Cubs are a top-tier offense vs. right-handers this season with a .334 wOBA (5th) and 115 wRC+ (6th). They’ve been slumping a bit lately, but the lineup won’t be held down for long. 

Grab the over for the full game and the first five innings. We could easily see a repeat of yesterday’s 6-5 final when the scoring got going early. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/11

 

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