Welcome to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for Monday, May 8 and a welcome back to me as I had taken a few days off the clear my head from a horrendous losing streak. The worst part about it was the series of bad beats endured at the hands of massive bullpen meltdowns and when those pile up, you just need to take a step back and clear your head; let things breathe for a little bit. So, a big thanks to Adam Ronis and Colby Conway for helping me out and keeping all of you going with their baseball bets and picks each day. As for my baseball bets today, allow me to remind you to check in with pages like the Fantasy Alarm Vegas Odds page to check in with implied runs and specific pitching match-ups and always hit the different books like BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook and shop around for the best odds. We’ve got some great deals with each of them to get you things like matched deposits and bonus bets.

  • Season Record: 48-50-2
  • Bankroll: -8.03 units

We’ve got a bit of a hole to dig ourselves out of, so let’s get to it.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for May 8 

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

Let’s start with the Guardians who have averaged just 2.5 runs per game over their last five and are facing lefty Joey Wentz today. Wentz isn’t that great, based off the numbers, but he has performed fairly well every other start and the Guardians have the third-lowest wOBA against southpaws, posting just a .283 mark with a 76 wRC+ which is second-lowest in the league. On the other side, the Guardians are throwing rookie Tanner Bibee who has been rock-solid through his first two starts, posting a 2.45 ERA with 13 strikeouts and no walks over 11 innings. The Tigers bats woke up in their recent series against the Cardinals and Mets, but still have a 25.2-percent K-rate and .280 wOBA against righties. With the under hitting in the last seven-straight Guardians games and in 11 of their last 12, we’re going to rely on better pitching and look for another low-scoring affair.

Pick: Tigers/Guardians under 7.5 runs (-105 on Caesars Sportsbook)  

Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles

While the Orioles have hit left-handed pitching well this season, it’s difficult to imagine any team getting the better of Shane McClanahan. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any outing this season, his WHIP is a very tidy 1.10 and his swing-and-miss stuff has resulted in 51 strikeouts over just 40 innings. He’s issued a few too many free passes (3.60 BB/9) and the O’s have shown tremendous patience, but he gets himself out of plenty of trouble, courtesy of a 48.4-percent ground ball rate. Baltimore has a ground ball rate north of 40-percent against southpaws, so the advantage tilts towards Tampa. On offense, they have the best numbers against righties and Kyle Gibson has been struggling as of late. It does seem to take a little time before Gibson starts coughing up a bunch of runs, but the Rays offense continues to produce at a high level and they are 7-3 against the first-five innings run-line over their last 10 games.

Pick:  Tampa Bay Rays First 5 Innings -0.5 Run Line (-120 on BetMGM)

Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting this game is all about backing Zac Gallen for me. He may have had his 27-inning scoreless streak snapped during his last outing, but he still pitched fairly well and didn’t walk a single batter for the fourth-straight appearance. The Marlins are a light-hitting team, posting a .286 wOBA against righties, the fourth-lowest in the league, they’re struggling to produce runs and they’re striking out almost 25-percent of the time. Meanwhile, lefty Braxton Garrett takes the mound for the Marlins and while he had pitched well to open the season, he got annihilated by the Braves his last time out, giving up 11 runs over just 4.1 innings. The Diamondbacks have been middle-of-the-pack against lefties on the year, but still have a respectable .321 wOBA against them. But more importantly, they are resting comfortably at home and have a .400 wOBA over the past seven days. There’s no legit value on the money line and the fact that Arizona’s top three relievers have been pounded this past week makes me worry about the overall run line for the game, even though some books are offering plus-odds. I’ll play it safe and back them for the first five.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings -0.5 Run Line (-130 on BetMGM)