It’s time for your MLB Best Bets and betting picks for today! We’ve got a jam-packed slate here on Wednesday, May 17 with some early starts and we are looking to carry through with some momentum I have been rebuilding. We had a great day on Monday and if you listened to SiriusXM Fantasy Spots Radio yesterday, you would have caught a couple of winning bets from me over there thanks to some MLB DFS research and the Playbook I built. We are still chipping away at this deficit before we jump into some longer odds from same game parlays and such, so let’s just get right to today’s baseball bets.

  • Monday’s Record: 3-0
  • Season Record: 56-56-2
  • Bankroll: -6.75 units


MLB Best Bets for May 17 

Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies

Not only are we looking at a day game following a night game, we are also looking at a pair of struggling offenses. Both teams exploded for 17 runs on Monday, but last night they played to an uninspiring 3-1 finish and today is a stronger match-up on the mound with Graham Ashcraft and Austin Gomber getting the starts. Ashcraft got hit hard two starts ago and still had some issues in Miami last time out, but who doesn’t hit a speed bump every now and then? He had five quality starts in the six outings prior and has been a ground ball machine again this season. The Rockies hit better at home than they do on the road, but they’ve still been mashing the ball in the dirt almost 42-percent of the time over the past week. And while they’ve managed to post a .316 wOBA against righties this year, they do not manufacture runs, as evidenced by the fifth-lowest wRC+ against them. Meanwhile, Gomber has continued to slide into midseason form with three-straight quality starts and a 2.28 ERA over his last four. The Reds’ .299 wOBA and 24.5-percent K-rate against southpaws don’t exactly inspire, do they? I’m not saying there won’t be runs scored here, but 12 runs scored seems like a very tall order today.

Pick:  Reds/Rockies under 11.5 runs (-110 on Caesars Sportsbook)

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

I don’t normally go for games that have the kind of rivalry and fire we’ve seen during this series, but there’s just something about what is going on that sys the Yankees have the Jays number here. Two nights ago, they Jays accused Aaron Judge of peeping the catcher before his late-game heroics and then last night, tempers flared between the two clubs before, again, Judge’s heroics gave the Yankees the win. Now they look to finish the sweep with their ace Gerrit Cole on the mound. Cole handled the Jays lineup a few starts ago at Yankees Stadium and though he’s coughed up a few homers at the Rogers Centre in his career, he also has a 4-0 record with a 3.24 ERA and 29 strikeouts there. Toronto righty Chris Bassitt hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts (16 innings), but he’s also been walking more batters than he should and the Yankees, who have shown strong plate discipline and a .379 wOBA over the past seven days, will likely make him pay for it. The Jays have lost their last six games to AL East opponents and the Yankees are 13-4 in their last 17 games in Toronto.

Pick: New York Yankees Money Line (-115 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets

It’s gone from bad to worse for the New York Mets as they haven’t won a series since mid-April when they somehow took two of three from a struggling Dodgers team. They did split a pair of four-game sets, one against the Nationals and one against the Giants, but this team has now lost seven of its last 10 and 14 of its last 20 games. Kodai Senga will make the start tonight and while his ghost forkball was all the rage to open the season, we’ve seen some struggles in three of his last five starts, including five runs in five innings against the Reds his last time out. The Rays continue to dominate at the plate, posting a .359 wOBA over the last seven days and a league-leading .363 mark against righties on the season. We expect them to produce. On the other side, the Rays are throwing lefty Josh Fleming who has had some ups and downs, but outside of one bad outing against the Yankees, hasn’t been bad over his last seven outings. The problem, is the Rays bullpen. They have been massively overworked in the last seven days and Fleming has only gone past the fifth inning once this season. I would love to grab those plus-odds on the Rays money line, but we’ve been victimized by too many bullpens to take that risk. Instead, we’ll focus on both starters having some early issues tonight and both bullpens making it worse.

Pick: Rays/Mets over 8.5 runs (-120 on BetMGM)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned