Welcome back to the MLB Best Bets and Betting picks. We’re back on a nice, little hot-streak and we’re building that bankroll back up. Another solid day yesterday puts us at 7-2 over our last three days and we seem to be clicking again. Today is going to be an interesting one and with potential weather concerns around the northeast, we’re going to have to be careful we don’t invest in the wrong spot nor do we force anything either. Remember, if you don’t feel it, you shouldn’t bet it. Betting baseball, as you’ve seen, can be tricky, so be sure you are confident where you are putting your money and don’t just make a bet for the sake of making a bet. All action should have a legitimate reason.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 2-1
  • Season Record:  46-34-1
  • Bankroll: +6.19 units

Here’s a look at what we like today:

 

 

MLB Best Bets for April 29

Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals (Game 1)

With the rain on Friday, the Pirates and Nationals will play a doubleheader today and with the way the pitching match-ups have been set, we’re going to attack the first game and it’s pitching match-up. I don’t think much needs to be said about Washington starter Patrick Corbin. The lefty actually threw a quality start in his last outing, but he still gave up two homers and the performance lowered his ERA to a cool 5.88 on the season. His 1.69 WHIP is prime evidence of how he pitches to too much contact and spends most of his time working out of jams, so it’s no wonder we expect the Pirates, who have the fourth-highest wOBA (.358) and fourth-highest wRC+ (125) against lefties, to put up some runs in the first game. The Pirates are throwing a lefty of their own and while Rich Hill has pitched well in his last three outings, his peripherals tell the true story. A 6.92 xERA and 6.20 FIP? With the Nationals being one of the toughest teams on southpaws (.337 wOBA), we’ll look for them to score some decent runs in this first game as well. I think you know where we’re headed.

Pick: Pirates/Nationals over 9 runs (-110 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee Brewers

The start of the season has had some serious ups and downs for Brewers ace Corbin Burnes. He’s been having a tough time keeping runs off the board early in games but does eventually settle in and, over his last three starts, has only allowed four earned runs over 19.1 innings. His K-rate has diminished somewhat, but watching him get stronger with each start, it makes me want to invest in him. The Angels lineup has done damage to lefties, but when facing righties, they are way too middle-of-the pack and way too reliant on Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. If Burnes can escape from them without much damage, he'll keep the score down. On the other side is left-hander Reid Detmers who has pitched reasonably well, but can be victimized by the long ball at times.  We’ve watched Milwaukee struggle against southpaws all season long with their .280 wOBA and 31.2-percent strikeout rate. Both bullpens have been mediocre over the past week, so I want to avoid both the money and run lines. The score, however, I think we can look to for our bet.

Pick: Angels/Brewers under 8.5 runs (-115 on BetMGM)

Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have won five in a row and their offense looks like it’s finally kicking into gear, as they’ve outscored their opponents 28-5 over that span and have won their games by an average margin of just over four runs per game. Today they will take on Mariners righty Chris Flexen who has not only lost his last four-straight decisions, but he’s also coughed up 20 runs over 17.1 innings in that span. He’s walking guys and pitching to a ton of hard-contact, so it’s difficult to believe he is going to contain this Toronto lineup at all. Meanwhile, the Jays are throwing Kevin Gausman who is coming off an ego-gratifying performance in the Bronx, holding the Yankees scoreless for seven innings while punching out 11 batters. Granted, the Yankees have been super-soft lately, but it’s still an impressive pitching line. The Mariners offense has been quiet lately and they’ve posted just a .308 wOBA with a 25.1-percent K-rate against righties. The minus-250 money line in favor of Toronto is obvious and has no value, but we’re good on the run line here even backing the home team.

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Run Line (-130 on BetMGM)

*all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned