Time to jump back into the MLB best bets for today! After a much-needed two days off from staring at the pitching match-ups, analyzing data and trying to keep pace with everything new that is happening here in the 2023 MLB season, I’m ready to get back into it. The season has already been a rollercoaster where we started off white hot, cooled down and have since been a little up and down. We still have a profit on the season, but now it’s time to get back into the groove after clearing our minds and we start to build back up. Big thanks to Dan Servodidio for picking up the slack and we’ll be ready for him to jump in a little more regularly as we push on into the season.
- Monday’s Record: 1-2
- Season Record: 33-22
- Bankroll: +6.65 units
Super short slate today, so let’s get to it.
MLB Best Bets for April 20
Overall, the Phillies have been less than stellar, given the high hopes we had for them coming into the season. Their minus-13 run differential is disappointing and while they’ve posted solid offensive numbers in the grand scheme of things, they have struggled to create runs with any real consistency. Perhaps it was starting off the season on the road so much and now they can start off this seven-game homestand strong and build themselves back up. Facing the Rockies should certainly help as they are struggling even more so and don’t have the team to really fight back here. Lefty Matt Strahm is off to a fantastic start to the season and while he hit a minor speed bump with a cut on his thumb in his last start, he should be more than good to go for this start. The Rockies have not been strong against southpaws this season – they are striking out 25-percent of the time and they’re not hitting for any real power. Strahm should have little trouble stifling their bats. On the other side we have Ryan Feltner taking the mound against a Phillies team that has been very strong against righties with the third-highest wOBA against them at a .353 clip. They need to convert the runs, but with Feltner’s command issues and minimal movement on his pitches, the Phillies, particularly the lefty bats, should carry them in this one.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 run line (-115 on BetMGM)
The Mets have been on quite the roll recently, winning six of their last seven games and now wrap up their west coast road trip with a four-game set against the Giants. Kodai Senga will make the start after getting knocked around a little by Oakland in his last start. The ghost forkball was not as effective last time and the question asked was whether teams would eventually catch up to it? I opined that perhaps Shintaro Fujinami helped guide the hitters into what to look for, but it just seemed like Senga wasn’t getting the same movement. Despite the Giants posting the second-highest wOBA against righties, their 27-percent strikeout rate stands out like a turd in a punchbowl. With his normal movement and velocity, he should create some issues for a team that hasn’t seen him live. For the Giants, it’s lefty Sean Manaea who has struggled with his command in two of his three starts and is throwing far too many pitches. The Mets aren’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball against lefties, but they do have a walk rate north of 10-percent against southpaws and they aren’t an undisciplined free-swinging team either. I expect the momentum to carry through and the Mets steal one in the first game of the series.
Pick: New York Mets Money Line (-115 on DK Sportsbook)
**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned