Behind The Breakout: Cedric Mullins

Perhaps not quite the impact to be referred to as “Cedric the Entertainer”, but this year's version Cedric Mullins continues flying below the radar in fantasy circles. Through 30 games, he's slashing .322/.382/.534 with 15 runs, five home runs, 11 RBI and three stolen bases. Ignoring paces over a full season, converting to batting left-handed seems to suit him well. 

He's hit safely in 22 of 29 starts this season and tied for the major league lead in hits versus left-handed pitching with 17 (Jed Lowrie ). When the Orioles win, Mullins plays a part in it hitting .456 (26-for-57) in them. Yes, exit velocities remain up across the fantasy landscape but his 40 hard hits (exit velocity of 95 MPH-plus) leads Baltimore. Not bad for a lead-off batter. 

Beneath the shiny rise in his slash lines, Mullins improved plate discipline and quality of contact need to be examined, along with his batted ball data to determine if this represents a hot streak or a breakout. 

Quality of Contact and Plate Discipline

Starting with his Statcast data, he's recorded 95 batted ball events with five barrels (5.3 percent), a 42.1 hard hit percentage and .291 expected batting average (xBA). It's one thing to write this, but for the visual crowd, here's a chart displaying his results from last year versus this season. As a frame of reference: BBE (batted ball events), expected weighted on-base average on contact (xwOBAcon), hard hit percentage (HH% - BBE with an exit velocity of 95 MPH+): 

It's hard to think Mullins’ has produced almost as many events this year as he did during the truncated season. Fueling his surge a better approach. Despite swinging at fewer pitches in the strike zone, he's improved his zone contact rate from 77.1 percent in 2020 to 82.4 percent so far in 2021. More importantly, he's drastically improved his chase rate, lowering it by 14.6 percentage points. Noting he's no longer switch hitting, it's enabled him to be more selective at the plate concentrating on one swing rather than two. Segue alert. 

Insulating his strong start, Mullins swung less overall at pitches (47.6 swing percent) and reduced his whiff rate from 21.6 percent in 2020 to 17.3 percent this year. He's also offering less often at the first pitch cutting his swing percentage on them by 13.4 points. All of this adds up to an improved Mullins evidenced by his swing and take chart: 

Carrying these gains over a full season can be tracked in his sweet spot percentage and hard hit rates going forward. Check back weekly to see if these slip. A slump may ensue but his at-bats appear more comfortable to the eye when viewing gains and seeing him not chase pitches make his at-bats competitive ones. It's encouraging to see his progress to this point. 

Batted Ball Data

Even though he's produced two no-doubt home runs of his five this year, Mullins will not be a "power” hitter. It's alright. Especially since if his discipline holds, he cannot sell out for power by pulling the ball exclusively. Viewing the spray chart of his hits, he's off to a terrific start: 

In 29 starts, he's hit safely in 22 of them and even in a hitless game in Seattle, he drew a walk and stole a base. Fantasy owners crave players who can produce across all five statistical categories and Mullins production to this point suggests he's on this path. 

Some may point to luck being the driving force behind his present batting average but with a .295 xBA and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) only 17 points higher than last year, it's not due to a lack of skill. In fact, he's cut his strikeout percentage by almost six percent while improving his walk rate by four percent. Will there be some regression? Absolutely. Will it be as drastic as his rest-of-the-season projection sets? 

My bet says no. Will he hit over .300 for the full season? No, however he's on track for 70-plus runs, 17 home runs and 17-to-20 stolen bases. Do not focus on his preseason price point or migration to the mean. Cedric Mullins may not be an entertainer, but he's on track to be a post-hype breakout. Good news for the top of Baltimore's lineup and those with him on their fantasy roster. 

Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com - game notes

THE BAT and THE BAT X courtesy of Derek Carty

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski