The midweek MLB card features stereotypical spots for MLB home run picks like Coors Field and Wrigley Field, and when Seiya Suzuki cashed ANOTHER winner for us last night, why not make ANOTHER three-day streak? Sure, we may want to avoid the likes of Zack Wheeler, but in that same game, we have Eric Lauer dealing with the Phillies lineup. That’s just the first game of the slate, so it’s safe to say that we have plenty to break down beyond that to make sure that we’re locking in the top MLB home run predictions for today.

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

With big-name arms on the mound, we know that plenty of fans will want to go beyond just MLB home run picks, which is where our MLB expert picks come into play. From strikeout props to hitter combo props and game markets in between, we’ve got you covered across the board. Now, for those only here to prioritize MLB home run predictions, just head over to our MLB home run prop tool after checking out our targets below!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/21: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We mentioned the wind at Wrigley, and with it being directly in on Sunday and directly out last night, it’s paramount that you always check our MLB weather report before making any MLB home run picks. We’ll also want to target pitchers other than studs like the aforementioned Wheeler, such as Miles Mikolas.

Of course, the hitters themselves need to be analyzed, which we’ll do from their basic numbers to their underlying, advanced values. It all plays a part in how we’ve been able to continue cashing MLB home run picks, so let’s get into the top three targets that you saw listed above!

James Wood (+219)

Look, by now you know that we don’t love giving our picks with odds this short. Frankly, we prefer +300 or better so that you’re fully covering all three picks on the (rare) days none of them hit with one winning pick. However, this is one case where we aren’t going to pass up this spot with our best MLB home run picks for today.

First of all, James Wood speaks for himself at this point with his 100th (ONE HUNDREDTH) percentile xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. There are also other 95th percentile and better numbers, but enough of a laundry list - he also gets to face Rockies righty Michael Lorenzen.

Lefties have a .589 slugging against him; this is in Coors Field and Colorado’s bullpen is terrible. It’s a no-brainer to lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with the leadoff man James Wood hitting a HR (+219 at Novig).

Brandon Lowe (+355)

Ok, time to pick up the value! Sure, we’re not at Coors Field, but we’ve got Yankee Stadium on the menu, so we love a lefty at the dish. Here’s the issue - rain. That said, it’s not expected to be severe, so it’s looking like a delay and then the game playing. So, we’ll happily enjoy Will Warren having to deal with that and help our MLB home run picks.

He’s already the Yankee starter to target compared to the likes of Cam Schlittler, and yes, it’s southpaws that have the better slugging against the righty. We won’t act like Lowe has the same metrics as James Wood, but he’s no bum either. Similarly, his slugging against righties is vastly superior to fellow lefties, sitting at .531.

That includes 17 of his 21 homers, so we love adding to our top MLB home run picks today with Brandon Lowe to hit a HR (+355 at bet365).

Bryce Eldridge (+535)

Now it’s time to head to Kansas City, which would win the award for most improved hitting location from year to year. Ok, that’s obviously a made-up award, but what we also love is seeing Luinder Avila start for the Royals. Both sides of the plate can smash this guy (both over a .400 slugging), meaning plenty of options for MLB home run picks.

It also means that we have to pick our poison, and Rafael Devers is sure to be the popular one. Also, for those subscribed to the newsletter, you know that you won’t mind a Casey Schmitt pick. However, we’re going to stick with a lefty, and a young one that’s still under-the-radar for some casual fans out there.

Well, he’s got a 98th percentile hard-hit rate of 54.9%, so he won’t be unknown for long. Let’s add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Bryce Eldridge to hit a HR (+535 at FanDuel).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

While you can go snag that bonus pick in just a few seconds, let’s keep going beyond just our top MLB home run picks. Let’s do so with a colossal potential payout that we’d wager most fans won’t be targeting.

We just discussed the KC hitting environment, and we still left one thing out - the KC bullpen is also terrible. Although he’s a contact hitter, we’ve seen this lefty have random spurts of power this season. With these juicy odds, we love the Giant as our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

As always, you can absolutely piece together our top three targets (and even our newsletter pick) for a different for-fun parlay. That said, if you just want some fresh names, here’s another way to add to our best MLB home run picks for today.

Do you see targets from yesterday and a recent winner? Sure, but that’s just how things end up working out when they aren’t winners the night before, and let’s be honest, if this cashes, we won’t complain about similar names anyway! Let’s make it the best Tuesday possible with our best MLB home run picks for today!