2018 MLB Draft Guide: Contract Year Players

Most people work jobs that give you raises depending on performance and how effective you are at doing your job over the course of a year or two. If you know when your chance at a raise is coming, it can incentivize you to do better at your job than you were previously, so as to impress your boss and get that coveted bump in salary. The same thought applies to professional athletes. When their contracts are coming to an end, most people believe that they have the incentive to up their level of play to then boost their asking price in the offseason. But is that really the case? And how can you take the “contract year effect” into account when putting together your fantasy team? Is it better to get a team stacked full of contract year guys or does it really matter?

Contract years have been talked about since the principle of free agency came to baseball with the Curt Flood case in the late 1960’s. Before that players were essentially locked into playing for the same team their entire career unless traded and since owners would simply sign them to one-year contracts under the reserve clause, there was really not a lot of incentive, other than pride, to try and boost your performance in any given year. Nowadays the money being offered to the top free agents, and even some of the middle-tier options, is so far beyond what previous generations got, there is a big time payday awaiting anyone that can take their game to the next level.

So at this point you’re probably thinking that while a history of the contract year was an “interesting” read, what’s the benefit to me and why is this in a fantasy baseball draft guide? Well I’m glad you asked, or at least thought it in this little scene we’re having. Here’s why it matters to you. If a player has a better chance of putting up big numbers in a contract year, than a higher return on investment is expected. If a player exhibits no propensity to put up bigger numbers, then maybe a standard season is more in the making. Both of which are helpful for you to know as a potential owner of theirs in this upcoming pivotal season.

There is a more obscure reason to know contract years though, especially in a keeper format, that should be touched on now before we get bogged down in the stat bonanza that is about to happen. Knowing when a key player’s contract year is, can help scout out a cheaper option that may give you a starter for the following season.A perfect example of that is that fact that Adalberto Mondesi is going late in drafts this year with the assumption that he takes over for Alcides Escobar later this year or next when he doesn’t re-sign in Kansas City. It’s even more helpful with closers say in Arizona for example, where Archie Bradley is the likely pick to start the season as closer following Fernando Rodney's contract expiring at end of last season.  Now clearly spending the money to get high-producing players is always more palatable, but thinking ahead is how you compete year-after-year in these formats.

Putting future years aside for the moment, journeying into the past may shed some light on exactly what happens in contract years for some players. The following tables have a line showing “162-game Pace.” This was taken from Baseball-Reference.com and it shows what a player’s stats should be for a full season based on his career numbers to this point. Take their total games played and divide by 162 and then divide each stat by that factor keeping the career ratios the same.

In 2015 David Price had his best year in ERA, WHIP, WAR and win total. However, he did it over the shortest innings work load and had the fewest strikeouts of the three years, likely a product of lower innings. Now a couple of things to keep in mind, 2014 and 2015 were split between Tampa and Detroit first and then Detroit and Toronto in his walk year. So the changing environments and ballparks and divisions could have played a role in differing numbers. Contract year effect: Yes

Zack Greinke produced the second-best year of his career in 2015 when his contract was up with the Dodgers, notching career-bests in ERA, WHIP, wins, recorded loses, and winning percentage. All while finishing second in the Cy Young voting. His WAR for 2015 has only been topped by his Cy Young campaign of 2009 and the 9.3 mark accounts for 16% of his career WAR over 14 seasons. Contract year effect: Yes

Ian Desmond is an unusual case here, as you’ll notice there are four years listed. That’s because he signed a one-year deal with Texas ahead of the 2016 season and thus had two contract years back-to-back. The first one, 2015, produced his worst full season numbers of the group, and had he not been injured in 2017 he may have topped 2015 in many categories. The second however, in Texas (a better hitter’s park) proved very lucrative with his second 20-20 season in three years, a batting average 32 points higher than the previous year and his only 100+ run campaign of his career. Contract year effect: Maybe

Aroldis Chapman’s walk year came after 2016 and winning a World Series with the Cubs. Now his numbers have fallen year-over-year for the last three seasons including being suspended to start a season. That being said, his ERA, WHIP, saves, WAR, and FIP were all best in 2016. Moving back to NYC hasn’t been great for Chapman as his ERA more than doubled and his strikeouts have slipped nearly in half since 2014. Contract year effect: Yes

Edwin Encarnacion is one example of how the top free agents aren’t generally affected by the status of their contract. They simply play. There’s really no difference between any of those three years save for some dip in average and a decent bump in RBI in 2016. But generally he pumps out the same stat line every year. Contract year effect: No

Sean Rodriguez has one of the clearest boosts from a contract year that was seen while researching this piece. While he played in basically the same number of games in 2015 and 2016, the 100 at bats more don’t fully account for the multiplication of the counting stats. The problem with Rodriguez is getting a clear picture after the monster year because of a car wreck. Prior to the 2017 season and after signing with the Braves, his family was involved in a serious wreck that injured his shoulder and landed them all in the hospital. While he made back to the field, he was not the same. Contract year effect: Yes, possibly

Like Encarnacion, Yoenis Cespedes is here to prove that elite players generally don’t succumb to contract years. And while you may say, okay but his numbers fell off after signing the contract, the retort to that would be that if you pace out his numbers for 159 games, his 2017 fits right in line with the others. Contract year effect: No

The following few players are from this offseason and thus will only have two seasons listed since it’s impossible to know what they will do in 2018 at this point.

Eric Hosmer has been one of the bigger signings this year with San Diego locking him up for eight years and $140+ million. Overall the biggest difference is the serious boost in the slash line and his quadrupling of his WAR mark. By all accounts, Petco Park is not terribly different than Kaufman Stadium and his lineup is arguably better in San Diego so expect similar numbers once more. Contract year effect: Maybe

Yonder Alonso is a puzzling case since he was also traded during his contract year and put up easily his biggest homer total of his career. In fact the 28 he hit last year account for 42% of his career total. Alonso explains the difference in power from a focus on changing his launch angle to get more balls in the air. The question is would he have changed that had it not been a contract year? What stopped him from doing it previously? He’s now in Cleveland but should see some regression compared to 2017. Contract year effect: Yes

Yu Darvish came off Tommy John surgery in 2015 and had a shortened season in 2016. With that behind him, 2017 proved to be an up and down season for him, with the year turning around following his trade to L.A., until the post-season that is. Overall his ratios were worse last season compared to 2016 but they were better for the L.A. part of the year than 2016. Now in Chicago, there is no reason to believe that his numbers won’t improve. Contract year effect: No

That was a lot to go through, but overall you can see that the mid-tier players are generally more affected by contract years than the elite guys are. This conclusion isn’t uncommon either. Through all the reports and studies done on this subject, one common theme is that elite players are elite because they produce consistently great numbers no matter the situations around them, not financial, not team roster, not playoff contender or bottom feeder. An elite player being unflappable is why they are paid the big bucks, and thus why contract year performances don’t necessarily matter. Though there some cases they can, as you’ll see later in this article.

Some of you may know that the free agent class following the 2018 season is going to be a monstrous class. Seriously. It’s huge in size and talent. Players like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, likely Clayton Kershaw, Charlie Blackmon, and Craig Kimbrel are just a few of the guys who will be up to the highest bidder after this season. However it would be a waste of everyone’s time to break down these guys, since we all know what they are capable of and why they go in the first round of most drafts. In an attempt to be the most helpful for our readers, breaking down the mid-tier guys will be the focus, since as we’ve discussed, they are most likely to feel the effect of the contract year pressure.

First Base

Duda is in an interesting case to lead off the 2018 free agents. Why? He was just a free agent up until a week and a half ago, when he signed a one-year deal with Kansas City. He also just came off a one-year deal in 2017 as well. He came off an injury-plagued season in 2016 that limited him to just 47 games and then was traded at the deadline to Tampa in 2017. His average has been falling every year since 2014 but for the most part the power numbers have continued to show up with 27+ homers in three of the last four years. He is moving to Kaufman Stadium this year, which is typically a pitcher-friendly park, but Eric Hosmer continued to put up solid numbers there year-after-year. Based on the last few year’s park factors, Citi Field and Kaufman Stadium aren’t terribly far apart in terms of home run rate and the dimensions of the park are fairly similar as well.

At 32 and having signed two straight one-year deals, he will need to raise the average more to his 2015 level to really get the money moving his way this coming off-season. That being said he is likely the best bat at first base available for next year at this point.

Second Base

Kinsler had a very solid four-year stretch in Detroit despite seeing his average fall off a cliff this past season. He was traded to Anaheim this offseason to be the starting keystone in a newly bolstered lineup. Of note is the fact that 2016 and 2017 are the only two years in which Kinsler has managed back-to-back 20+ homer seasons in his career both years however Comerica Park ranked 8th in baseball in Park Factor based on home run rate those two years. He transitions to a new ballpark this year, Angel Stadium, which has been a pretty neutral park historically but now he has the benefits of a much stouter lineup. Guys like Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, and Albert Pujols should provide him protection like the hay-day of the Tigers lineup.

His past contract year was in 2013 when he was still with Texas when he was coming off a near 20-20 season in 2012. His 2013 however was an average season by his standards cresting in the 30s age-wise. This time around, 2018 poses a new challenge aside from being back in the AL West, he is in his age-36 season and the hands of time might not be kind to him. All that being said, he’s never had a season with less than double-digit steals, and only one season with single-digit homers and he only played 103 games that year.

Murphy launched his career into the near superstar realm closing out the 2015 post-season when he went off for an historic power display. Following that showing the Mets’ rival signed him to a three-year/$37.5 million deal. Since that point, Murphy has been rolling. Just look at his numbers, the worst average was still 40 points higher than his previous contract year in New York. Now a couple of things can be at work here. Murphy did make a swing adjustment late in 2015 that has allowed him to get to inside pitches at a much better rate, with better results, and the anger factor; against the Mets for simply seeing him as replaceable by Neil Walker. In fact his 2014 and 2015 home run totals don’t equal his 2016 total when combined. The two-year run from 2016-2017 he has produced the most doubles, triples, home runs, RBI, runs, highest averages, OBP, and SLG marks than any two-year span previously. Murphy will turn 33 at the very start of the 2018 season, but a third year like the last two and he will lock up a deal in the neighborhood of five years as he will be viewed as staying in his prime for most of that deal.

Shortstop

Escobar has been a decent hitting short stop for the Royals for years, but now that run with them maybe coming to an end after the 2018 season. The 2017 campaign was the third time in the last four years in which he played all 162 games but the stats combined to be one of if not the worst full-season showing of his career. His on-base percentage has fallen each of the last four years, and five of the last six as he’s shown consistently his inability to draw walks routinely. The steals total of just four all year is his worst mark in that category since 2009 when he played just 38 games for Milwaukee. Sure Escobar is a sure handed fielder who puts up decent run totals, as a guy in his position should, but that’s about it. Spotrac.com, the main source for contract info of professional sports, suggests that Escobar will be worth an AAV (average annual value) of $7.4 million in his next contract based on how he fits with guys of his skill level and what they’ve signed for in the past. If Escobar wants to make the jump from his $2.5 million salary in 2017 to three times that amount, he will need a herculean effort. By the way, Escobar is a perfect example of knowing when a guy is poised to leave a team and when to draft his replacement. Adalberto Mondesi (Raul) has been a big name this drafting season simply because of the anticipation of him taking over the starting gig at some point this season and surely next year.

Third Base

Yes I did say that top-flight guys shouldn’t be affected by contract years. But this is a different case. Beltre is entering his age-39 season and his 21st in the majors but there’s been no signs from him of an impending retirement. Last season was still a productive one for the 20-year vet as he played only 94 games after being hampered by a few different injuries but still put up 17 dingers and 71 RBI in little more than a half a campaign. The future hall of famer still needs 38 home runs to crack 500, which would put him in a group with just Albert Pujols (assuming 32 more hits) and Hank Aaron. And that’s it. The man can still play a great defensive third base which means he won’t be limited to only AL teams this coming offseason in order to be stuck in the DH slot. So in the end for the man who’s head can’t be touched, it’s simply a matter of staying healthy and proving to, well no one really, that he’s still a great player even approaching 40.

Moustakas is a late addition to the list with his signing of a new deal on March 8. The third baseman made a calculation that he would be worth a hefty contract coming off his best power year in his seven season in the bigs. The problem is, there was relatively little need at the hot corner in this market. There are more issues with Moustakas than what readily show up in the stat lines we usually see too. Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs wrote a great piece detailing his issues that’s well worth an in-depth read. While the power numbers do jump out since he nearly doubled his previous career high in homers, 38 in 2017 22 in 2015, and his runs and RBI were also barely new career highs, his slash line dropped as did his WAR. Now in fairness WAR is dependent on what other players do at that position from year-to-year, and since 2017 had a lot of very good third baseman, he, on the whole, was a bit above average. In the piece referenced above, his running skills are referenced and show that he has slowed quite a bit since his missing most of the 2016 season with a torn ACL. He’s essentially become a road block on the base paths and his bat likely won’t produce at that level again, so hence no long-term deal. In 2018 he will need to stay consistent at the plate, but also show that he can once again not have to go station-to-station on extra base hits and improve his fielding so as not to be limited to a DH role in 2019 and beyond.

Catcher

Wieters inked a two-year deal ahead of the 2017 season to move just slightly down the I-95 corridor and join the Nationals. The results were mostly a drop off from the year before, his previous contract year, when he was still playing with Baltimore. Now maybe it had to do with switching teams, learning a new pitching staff, switching leagues, signing a bit late, or something else, but the numbers are clear. He played in an almost identical number games and had just one less at bat in 2017 as in 2016 but his numbers were steeply different. A drop of 18 points, 14 points, and 65 points was present across his slash line and his power was almost not present falling from 17 to 10. It even turns out that a replacement level player would have been more valuable than him last season. So what can we expect 2018 to be like? Well his BABIP in 2017 was .264, compared to .265 in 2016, so he was getting a tad unlucky when making contact, but his hard contact rate fell below 30% for the first time since 2011 and he pulled the ball more in 2017, 42.2%, than in 2016, 37.4%, according to Fangraphs. If he can get a tad bit luckier, and not pull quite so much his numbers could again be similar to 2016 since there isn’t much of a difference park factor-wise between Camden Yards and Nationals Park over the last two seasons.

Gattis signed a two-year deal following the 2015 season, his best overall effort to that point. He backed up that contract with an even better showing in 2016 but then injuries derailed his efforts in 2017. However that being said, he still got a raise in a one-year deal with Houston for 2018 making it yet another contract year for the left fielder/catcher/DH. Presuming that he’s healthy this year and given the lineup he gets to slot into, his numbers could once again rival somewhere between 2015 and 2016. The interesting thing about Gattis is that while he’s entering his age-31 season, there isn’t a lot of major league wear and tear on him. Gattis has only played five seasons thus far and his first two were part-time in Atlanta without use of the DH spot. He has shown that his power plays anywhere, so long as a manager doesn’t mind his .250ish batting average and lacking ability to draw walks, and that power makes him an appealing option on the open market, and one that may go for cheaper than some top-tier options.

Well here we have one of the most obvious cases of a performing in a contract of anyone on the list. His contract with the Nats ended following the 2016 season, and if you’ll notice that was across the board the best season of his career. Most homers, RBI, runs, games played, at bats, highest average, OBP, SLG and wOBA, all in one year. So it’s clear as day right? Ramos does well in contract years, I mean 2016 shows it…except wait for it. He had LASIK surgery prior to that season. Ok but how does that explain his 2017 season fall off then. Ramos tore his ACL in the last few weeks of the 2016 season, which ended his tenure with Washington since he was going to have to DH to when first coming. So he only played part of a season last year. However in that partial season, he started to get his timing and swing back to where it was in 2016. So if he can stay healthy this upcoming season, he’s got a shot at putting up similar numbers to 2016 and seeing a nice payday heading into his age-32 season in 2019, which still puts him in his prime years for a catcher.

Outfield

Jones will be coming off a six-year/$85.5 million contract he signed back in 2013 and 2018 will be his age-32 season, starting to get up there for an outfielder. Especially one that plays as physically as Jones tends to. Over the course of his current deal his power numbers and counting stats have bounced around a bit but have stayed relatively consistent. His ratios on the other hand had steadily slipped until this last season that is. With a 20-point, 12-point, and 30-point jump in the slash lines he seemed to figure things out once more. Jones’ K-rate, BB-rate, contact rates, and spray charts have all stayed the same over the last several years, so how else can we explain it? He knows money is getting close to being on the line and wants to start putting his best foot forward, especially knowing the market for an aging center fielder. The O’s center fielder will continue to be a free-swinger, he had the fourth-highest swing rate last season in all of baseball, but as long as he keeps putting up consistent numbers, especially similar to last year, he will have a rewarding contract year.

Pollock’s 2015 season shows his top-end capabilities but then his injuries show his lows. In the last two seasons he’s played 124 games combined after suffering a broken elbow a few days before the 2016 season and then dealing with injuries once more in 2017. His biggest concern is clearly injury. If he stays healthy a 20-30 season is well within his grasp, even with the addition of the humidor at Chase Field this season. Arizona loves having him patrolling the large center field of their home park, but hey if he can’t stay on the field, they have other options at their disposal who won’t cost nearly as much as Pollock could. Still considered a top-10 outfielder by most heading into the draft, the only way those stats will be possible is if he manages to stay in the field for 135+ game in 2018.

The leader of the Rockies dating back to the 2008 World Series run, he was unsigned until March 8, when the Rockies signed him to a still one-year deal with the language still being finalized as of this writing. Last year was a tale of two halves for CarGo as he had a .214 average heading into July before doing something about it. He changed his swing, and talked to a sleep expert, and bingo, he went on a tear that raised his average to a respectable .262 by season’s end. Eight of his 14 homers came in the final two months of the season after those changes too, showing he still has some valuable skills. The problem for CarGo this season is a crowded outfield in Coors Field with Charlie Blackmon (also in a contract year) locked in center, Ian Desmond locked in left and a battle with Gerardo Parra and CarGo in right. That also doesn’t include if David Dahl finally gets healthy. If he gets anywhere close to the at bats he got last season, the new changes should help him close in on 20 homers once more and could have 65-70 RBI and 70+ runs with that offense. He’s still only worth a late-round flyer with playing time issues, but at 32 there’s still a few years left in his game and he will be trying to prove the changes are a lasting boost to his numbers.

Pitchers

Britton is one of the games elite closers, and has been for a few years now. So why are we talking about him if we weren’t discussing top-tier talent? An injury. That’s why. He had an injury-plagued 2017 campaign hence the drop in games pitched by nearly half and is big rise in ERA and WHIP, both of which were the highest mark he’s posted since becoming a reliever. Now he’s coming off an Achilles injury that he sustained while training back in December. Since that time he has been rehabbing it but it’s clear that he will miss part of the season, as short as a month but possibly two. That’s not ideal clearly if you are trying to impress perspective employers. Simply from a fantasy stand point that means he will produce less stats with a smaller sample of games to play and potentially not being placed back into the closer role immediately upon return. All of that combine to make this a very important season for Britton as he tries to remind folks of just how dominant he can be when on the bump in the ninth inning.

Allen is a guy who is always being discussed as a threat to lose his job ever since Andrew Miller arrived in Cleveland. That’s why we’re talking about him here. The problem with the theme that he will lose his job is the numbers don’t suggest that he should or will. Remarkable consistency is what the numbers bare out, especially at a position in which a guy only last a year or two typically. Sure he has blown some saves over the last three years but with 30+ saves in each of the last three years that makes him just one of three in baseball that can claim that stat. He, Craig Kimbrel, and Kenley Jensen are the only three relievers in the majors to hit save at least 30 games a year since 2015 and Allen nearly did it four years in a row. As long as Allen keeps his head down and keeps pluggin’ away, he will maintain his role and should see significant interest on the open market.

Pomeranz is coming off a very nice season in 2017, just his second as a full-time starter in the majors. However there are some signs that he needs to improve in order to maximize his value on the open market. Taking a look at the batting splits against him, it’s clear that his weakness is against left-handed batters, surprisingly. Against RHB Poneranz’s splits are .240/.311/.383 and versus lefties .293/.370/.408. While he does have a better strikeout rate against lefties, they make contact much more often than righties do. After his hot start in San Diego in 2016, he was traded to Boston where people thought his numbers would tank given the smaller ballpark and the more explosive offenses in the division, however he’s held his own and if he can once more put up similar numbers in 2018, he should be in line for a nice contract offer with him being a lefty and just being into his age-30 season in 2019.

The D.C. southpaw’s previous best season was 2012, that is until 2017 came around. Yet there are still some question marks around him. For example, how did he lower his ERA 1.6 runs a game? Well if you look at his FIP it’s clear that his 2016 season and 2017 pretty much all came down to luck. His 2016 ERA of 4.57 is considerably higher than his 3.76, but turn that around to 2017 and the difference in ERA and FIP is even bigger, but in Gonzalez’s favor this time. He got hit better by batters in general over 2015 and 2016 than last year, but he was much more effective against left handed hitters in the most recent campaign with a .180 BAA. So sure that can account for some of it as can working with Mike Maddux as pitching coach, who isn’t there this season. But in general luck and a bit of pitch sequencing are most notably the reasons for the jump in stats between the last two years.

So what does that mean for 2018? In all likelihood his season will likely fall just about in the middle of the past two. There is a change in pitching coaches and some slight changes in the Nationals defense, Adam Eaton in and Jayson Werth out. However, if he can in fact reproduce a season as good or better than 2017, the southpaw would be in line for a very good payday whether it be for the Nationals or any other team needing a starter, which is pretty much all of them.

Rest of the Pack

We’ve touched on a few intriguing guys at each position, and ones that aren’t at the top of the heap for the massive contracts. But what does the whole market look like? Ordinarily several of these guys would be the top players at their position in a free agent class, and thus command a bigger contract. But if they are just the mid-tier guys, then how much of a bump in pay or length can they expect to see? Their numbers in their contract years will dictate part of that answer to be sure. The following is a listing of the rest of the notable free agents in the 2018 class, and boy is it a doozy.