Every Friday throughout the NFL regular season I will be sending you this lineup helper that I like to call: Tough Decisions. In this article I will breakdown players with similar value, ranking and projection heading into this coming week.
Since this piece does come out on Fridays, injury news may pop up after posting time. Make sure you’re checking all your sources so you have up to date information regarding injuries, playing status, etc. Once again, if you want your lineup question featured in this piece, just hit me up on Twitter and your question could be featured. Anyways, let’s get into it.
Let's take a look at the TOUGH DECISIONS for Week 7:
QUARTERBACKS
Tyrod Taylor (@MIA) or Jameis Winston (@SF)
The Case for Taylor: Taylor leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards and he’s put up at least 14 fantasy points in every game since Week 1. The Bills boast a rush-first attack, but a report came out today that star running back LeSean McCoy is dealing with a mild to moderate hamstring strain. If his availability is affected at all, Taylor would likely see at least a few extra opportunities to make an impact in this contest. Miami’s defense has allowed at least one touchdown in every game to opposing quarterbacks this season, with the lone exception being the Cleveland Browns in Week 3. Taylor is an intriguing fantasy play in Week 7, with the upside that flirts with low-end QB1 territory.
The Case for Winston: Since throwing for 405 yards and three scores against the Rams, Winston hasn’t fared so well. One matchup did come against Denver, so we’ll cut him some slack there, but the other matchup was against a Carolina secondary that has more holes than Swiss cheese. He’s thrown just one touchdown in the past two weeks, compared to two interceptions. Winston and the Bucs have had a bye week, so they’ve had some extra time to prepare for the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have allowed multiple touchdowns to quarterbacks in five straight games, which places Winston in the low-end QB1 territory.
The Verdict: Winston. It’s going to be a nice game for him.
RUNNING BACKS
Giovani Bernard (vs. CLE) or James White (@PIT)
The Case for Bernard: The timeshare with Jeremy Hill isn’t ideal in fantasy terms, but Bernard continues to produce. He’s on pace for over 1,100 total yards this season and a matchup with the Cleveland Browns defense is a great opportunity for Bernard to produce yet again this season. The Browns have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and tenth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season, so Bernard will get plenty of work. The game flow may work out of his favor, but he’s used enough in the passing game that he should be able to find the end zone before things get out of hand. If they get out of hand at all.
The Case for White: White is an exceptional pass-catching back who’s averaging six receptions per game with Tom Brady at the helm of the New England offense. He scored twice last weekend against Cincinnati and now gets to face a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Pittsburgh has allowed over 10 yards per reception to opposing running backs and that is a number White can easily exceed in this one. New England doesn’t let off the throttle until later in games, so even if New England dominates Landry Jones and the rest of the Pittsburgh Steelers, White should have plenty of time to produce. I like him a lot this week.
The Verdict: White. He’s going to find the end zone at least once and total 80 or more yards.
Jay Ajayi (vs. BUF) or Tevin Coleman (vs. SD)
The Case for Ajayi: Ajayi had an incredible performance last week and I don’t want to take credit away from his outstanding performance. However, there is no way he will repeat that this week. In standard scoring formats, he had 24 fantasy points going into last week’s 32-point outburst. Since he clearly has the hot hand, he will get lead duties against Buffalo on Sunday. Things will be much tougher this weekend to say the least, seeing as Buffalo is allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game. It won’t be easy for him on Sunday, but with his expected volume of work, you can safely place him in the RB2 realm in Week 7.
The Case for Coleman: Coleman has seen his touches deteriorate significantly, yet he still has RB2 potential this week against a San Diego defense that has gifted points to opposing running backs. Freeman is clearly the team’s top back, but Coleman will see more than the six touches he got last week. If I had to predict, Coleman will likely be right around 10-12 touches this week and against this Chargers defense, it will likely only take that number to be productive. The Chargers have allowed nine total touchdowns to opposing running backs through six games this season, an average of 1.5 times per game. Coleman is worthy of flex consideration this week, thanks to the porous San Diego defense.
The Verdict: Coleman. Ajayi won’t put up the same numbers and I’d much rather attack the San Diego defense than Buffalo’s unit.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Kenny Britt (vs. NYG) or Mike Wallace (@NYJ)
The Case for Britt: Well, have yourself a week Mr. Britt. The veteran wide receiver has caught 30 passes for 492 yards and two touchdowns on the young season. Case Keenum and Britt victimized a weak Detroit defense last week and things are looking bright this week against the Giants. Opposing wide receivers have had a good bit of success against the Giants defense and if New York gets hot early, it’s going to be a lot of catch up from the Rams’ offense. If that is the case, Britt will have four full quarters to produce, which gives him ample opportunity to put up some points. Last week’s numbers may not be attainable in Week 7, but he could flirt with 100 and one score.
The Case for Wallace: The Jets have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game this season to opposing wideouts and Wallace is a deep-threat who is due to bust a big one. That New York defense is allowing just over 14 yards per reception to opposing wide receivers, not to mention eight touchdowns in six games. Over his last two games, he’s hauled in 11 passes for 160 yards, which is fine, but he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2 against the Cleveland Browns. Simply put, the matchup is too good to pass up, and Wallace is flirting with low-end WR2 status. He’s much better suited for the flex, but given the matchup and Wallace’s style of play, WR2 numbers are definitely attainable for the veteran burner.
The Verdict: Wallace. He’s bound to break a big one against the Jets.
Chris Hogan (@PIT) or Brandon LaFell (vs. CLE)
The Case for Hogan: After a solid performance in his first action with Tom Brady, Week 6 didn’t produce similar results. He hauled in just one pass, albeit for 39 yards. He’ll continue to get more burn than Danny Amendola, because Hogan is the team’s primary deep threat, while Amendola is poor man’s Julian Edelman. He’s going to be a hit-or-miss fantasy option, but he has a chance to score a big one against an average-at-best Pittsburgh defense. He’s averaging 30.6 yards per catch with Tom Brady, so it doesn’t take much for him to rack up some numbers. If Pittsburgh can somehow keep up with New England in this one, Hogan will be a very attractive play.
The Case for LaFell: LaFell has seen 16 targets over the past two weeks. Of those 16 targets, he’s caught 10 of them and has even found the end zone three times. He’ll continue to get looks in the offense, but his role, especially in the end zone, will diminish when tight end Tyler Eifert returns to action. However, for now, LaFell is a low-end WR3 play. The yardage totals haven’t been great of late, but he is finding the end zone and when a player is doing that, you must take notice. He’s a risky play, but since he is facing Cleveland, you really can’t go wrong.
The Verdict: Hogan. If it weren’t for touchdowns, LaFell wouldn’t even be in this piece. Hogan is a hit-or-miss guy, but don’t worry, he’s hitting this week.
TIGHT ENDS
Vernon Davis (@DET) or Travis Kelce (vs. NO)
The Case for Davis: Unless Jordan Reed logs some practice time soon, I don’t expect him to play on Sunday against the Detroit Lions. Tough luck for Reed owners, because this is a dream matchup for the tight end position. The Lions are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position and simply put, they’ve struggled to slow down tight ends all season. Tight ends have scored in every game this season against Detroit, except for Week 5 when the Eagles couldn’t get their tight end in the end zone. Davis only caught two passes last week, but with a plus matchup, he’s worth a flier.
The Case for Kelce: Kelce is a productive, high-floor player, but the fact remains that he doesn’t carry much upside. He’s been held under 35 receiving yards on three occasions this season and he’s the second or third option in an already limited passing attack. The team is going to run the ball often with Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles and Spencer Ware, and when they do throw, which isn’t all that often, Kelce isn’t able to do much with it. However, he does get a matchup with a New Orleans defense that has allowed 89 yards per game to opposing tight ends over the last three games. He’s a TE1 this week, but he isn’t my favorite play on the board.
The Verdict: Davis. Call me crazy here, but Davis is going to score more points than Kelce. The latter’s floor is higher, but Kelce lacks that upside that I desire from the tight end position. Davis will outscore Kelce this weekend.
You can find me on Twitter: @colbyrconway
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