Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks

Total: 214 / Spread: MIL -3

We have a very intriguing game to kick off Thursday’s two game slate between the Nuggets and Bucks. The two teams haven’t met this year and both are riding high, each winning five of their last six games. Neither team plays at a very fast pace (DEN ranks T17, MIL ranks 24) but yet the total is pretty high. Part of the reason we’re getting a 214 total is definitely due to the fact that Denver ranks seventh in offensive efficiency and Milwaukee is tied for ninth.

 

Denver

Top Tier Play(s): Nikola Jokic - I’m not sure Jon Impemba and I stressed it enough on the Fantasy Alarm NBA DFS podcast this first half of the season that attacking Milwaukee bigs is one of easiest locks of the night anytime they’re on a slate. Now we get to use Nikola Jokic, fresh off a triple-double against a team that will be without John Henson who is the best interior defender they have. NEWS FLASH; Milwaukee has as good a chance at stopping Jokic as I do and I’m a 5’10” white guy that couldn’t even make his own Varsity basketball team. Jokic matches up against the Bucks who rank DEAD LAST in rebounding this year and the big man himself has grabbed seven or more boards in 26 consecutive outings. Jokic is a strong candidate for back-to-back triple-doubles.

Second Tier Play(s): Will Barton - The type of minutes that Barton is logging of late is really what peeks my interest, not necessarily the matchup itself. In all but one of his last 10 games has Barton failed to played 34 minutes and the outlier was a blowout loss against Houston where he still played 28. Barton can do a little of everything and because of that, he has a lot of upside despite the tough matchup. The Bucks rank 10th against small-forwards this year, so as I mentioned, this won’t be easy, but because we know he’s going to play monster minutes, there’s a chance Barton is in all the winning tournament lineup by night’s end.

Wilson Chandler - Maybe I’m drinking the Kool-Aid, but Chandler has now played in back-to-back games in which he’s looked aggressive in both. He’s taken 34 shots and has scored 37-plus DK points in the aforementioned contests, so recency bias has gauged my interest a bit here. I don’t love the near 5K price tag, but with limited options on this slate, we hope he stays active offensively.

 

Milwaukee

Elite Play(s): Giannis Antetokounmpo - Giannis is the top play on the board with ease. If you want to spend up for him, I obviously have no qualms with that at all. Now, let me lay out the issue with paying up for Antetokounmpo. He hasn’t hit 5x his salary in six of his last seven games. His price tag is still elevated -- as it should be -- because he can go off for 70 fantasy points at any moment, but you need to be aware of both scenarios. Sometimes, on small slate’s like these, the best approach is to simply use the people who will give us the maximum amount of points even if they don’t reach 5x their salary or what we’re looking for at minimum.

Eric Bledsoe - I’m not in love with the price tag here, but regardless of that, Bledsoe is a solid play on this mini slab we have as we head into the All-Star break. Bledsoe has been a model of consistency since Malcolm Brogdon went down and has put together five straight games of 35 DK points or more. With limited options at PG tonight, Bledsoe will be making a lot of my final builds.

Tyler Zeller - Now I do understand that it’s just one game, but Zeller looked really good getting extended run due to John Henson being out. He’s actually played 22-plus minutes in back-to-back games and could be an interesting tournament play with Henson out here again. I actually prefer Zeller to Thon Maker as I’m trying to be different on a slate.

Second Tier Play(s): Jabari Parker - It’s always rewarding when you’re ahead of the curve and this could the spot to get that done. The Bucks are still capping Parker’s minutes which is the main reason Parker isn’t more expensive but we could potentially see an uptick tonight, aka the primary reason to getting out in front of rostering Parker. I think he could be worth a look if the Bucks announced he was getting extended to 25 minutes.

Thon Maker: I like Tyler Zeller more as I stated, but Maker is the starter so he does have a little security. He’s played more minutes than Zeller in the last two games, he just hasn’t done much with them. I list him as a secondary play because he still should interest you because he’s starting and should see 25-plus minutes at a cheap salary.


 

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers

Total: 225 / Spread: MIN -10

This will be the third matchup between the TWolves and the Lakers this year with the Wolves winning the first two. There is a reason why we’re getting a 225 spread here as both of the previous meetings had 220 total points scored between the two teams. The Timberwolves get a nice pace up spot here as the Lakers rank first in the entire league, so everyone is playing up in pace against them. We obviously have to factor in a potential blowout after seeing the spread at 10 points despite the fact the Lakers are home.

 

Minnesota

Elite Play(s): Karl-Anthony Towns - Do I prefer Nikola Jokic? Yes. Would I be mad if I couldn’t find $500 on DraftKings and had to pay for Towns instead of Jokic? Not at all. Towns has been in a groove of late scoring 29 actual points or more in three of his last four games and at least 50 DK points in each of those games. Towns has averaged a respectable 44 DK points per game in the two meetings between these two teams and will get more possessions on offense because of the pace the teams will be playing at.

Jimmy Butler - It’s tough to predict which of Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns will snap off for the night but there is a pattern worth noting. Neither of them seem to go off on the same night, but one always seemingly does. For example, the last two games, Towns has gone for 50-plus DK points while Butler in the low 30’s. Three games ago, Towns was in the low 30’s taking a backseat to Butler who lead the Wolves and a lot of fantasy rosters with 63 DK points.

Jeff Teague - Teague has suddenly emerged from the rafters and has put together some big performances of late. He has a double-double in two of his last four games, has gone over 35 DK points in three-of-four, gets to square off against the 29th ranked defense against point-guards and gets a massive pace up spot. Teague is a solid play here.

Andrew Wiggins - Wiggins has been dominant against the Lakers this year averaging 36.9 DK points per game against them. Wiggins is always someone I love to use in pace up spots and this is obviously one of them. The peripheral stats he’s averaged against the Lakers seems like an aberration, but he can still be an elite scorer at the drop of a hat, which is why I love him for tournaments.

Second Tier Play(s): Taj Gibson - The TWolves entire starting five is really in play here as the Lakers are not very good on the defensive end of things, especially against power-forwards. They rank dead last against the position and Gibson’s consistency makes him a nice play. The issue I run into with rostering Gibson is upside. I’m not sure he has the upside to win us a tournament with so many other mouths to feed in Minnesota.

 

Los Angeles

Elite Play(s): Isaiah Thomas - The Lakers are playing the second leg of a back-to-back, except Thomas only played five minutes of the first game after being ejected early on Wednesday. He figures to be more fresh than any other Lakers player and now has an excellent matchup against Jeff Teague and the Timberwolves. The Wolves rank 20th against point-guards on the year. Thomas played 31 minutes in his debut with the team, which is a number we probably will grow to expect from him. He has a lot of upside at this 5.8K price tag and I actually prefer him slightly over Teague due to the $400 savings.

Julius Randle - It’s always been about the minutes for Randle and now that he’s getting them, he’s been all that and a bag of some big ass chips. Randle has scored at least 17 actual points in eight straight games and has played 27-plus minutes in seven consecutive. We’ve seen Randle’s upside is unlimited when he really gets it going and is a multi-category producer. Despite his tough individual matchup with Taj Gibson, I love Randle in this spot and essentially every time he laces up his sneakers at this point.

Second Tier Play(s): Josh Hart - With Jordan Clarkson gone to Cleveland and Lonzo Ball still out, Hart has carved out a spot in this Lakers rotation. His price is back down to a price point I’m willing to spend at too. He’s notched 29 minutes or more in six straight games and has really attacked the glass nicely more than anything as he’s grabbed six or more in five of those six games. Hart will continue to be a viable option with Lonzo Ball out. He likely gets blowout minutes as well, which is a big possibility seeing how this game has a 10-point spread.

 

 

There will be Optimal Lineups nearly an hour before lineup lock tonight. There may also be players in the Optimals that weren't in the breakdown above due to further research and possible value opening up. I'll be on Twitter @The_Real_Grande to take any questions leading up to lineup lock!