Looking back through the previous editions of Category Impact, I noticed that one particular category didn’t receive any love since the middle of June, so naturally, it became this week’s selection. It’s time to talk about some guys that can give your fantasy team some pop down the stretch. Not only are we looking for guys who have been hitting home runs of late, but also some guys whose metrics and batted ball profiles indicate they could hit some home runs down the stretch. Grab a coffee or your preferred reading beverage, and dive on into some words, graphs, tables, etc. and get yourself one step closer to a fantasy baseball title.
Without further ado…
Mark Canha , OAK 1B/OF – It only made sense to lead off this week’s edition with Mark Canha . His ownership across fantasy baseball leagues is rising quickly and he’s showing no signs of slowing down. He’s passing all of the Statcast boxes in the month of August, including….
Exit Velocity:
Barrel Rate:
Hard Hit Rate:
He’s owned in just over one-fourth of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues, and that number has jumped immensely over the past few days, and rightfully so. Not only has he hit six home runs over the last 15 days, but he’s hitting .417 and slugging a savory .813 during that span. Lastly, being eligible at first base AND in the outfield, he gives your lineup some versatility and flexibility over the last 30+ games of the fantasy season. In playoffs, you need to get as many at-bats as you can, and Canha can help give you productive ones.
Mike Ford , NYY 1B – Aaron Judge certainly also applies to this list, but considering he’s owned in 99.5 percent of fantasy baseball leagues, I figured that an individual from one of the 0.5 percent of leagues wouldn’t be tuning in to read this article. Therefore, Ford finds his way on the list. Over the last two weeks, he’s hitting .371 and five of his 13 hits have sailed over the fences. Love that! He’s not a household name by any means, but he’s getting regular playing time, and as long as that bat stays hot, skipper Aaron Boone is going to have a tough time not writing his name on the lineup card. Albeit a relatively small sample size – just 83 batted ball events, per Baseball Savant – he has the 20th-highest average exit velocity in all of baseball. Judge has the Yankees offense rolling right now, and Ford is feasting on the spoils as well. He might not offer your lineup the versatility that Canha does, but Ford’s left-handed swing plays well in Yankee Stadium.
Brian Goodwin , LAA OF – Over the last last two weeks, Goodwin’s 18 strikeouts are a MASSIVE problem, but the three home runs are certainly enjoyable to look at. The reason for optimism down the stretch for Goodwin is that not only is he going to play a good bit, but he’s been one of the game’s best in terms of a respectable hard hit and fly ball percentage. Over the last two weeks, per Fangraphs data, there are only four players who have fly ball AND hard contact rates over 50 percent.
PLAYER | FB% | Hard% | HR OVER LAST 2 WKS |
78.9% | 50.0% | 3 | |
51.4% | 60.0% | 1 | |
50.0% | 72.2% | 5 | |
50.0% | 54.2% | 4 |
Of the flyballs Goodwin has hit over the past two weeks, he’s posted a 50 percent hard contact rate on fly balls alone. When you add in his line drive percentage in the aforementioned span, he’s hit a fly ball or line drive 94.7 percent of the time, meaning he’s hit a ground ball just 5.3 percent of the time over the last two weeks. Gotta love that! If he can keep making hard contact in the air, there’s a lot to like for Goodwin down the stretch run.
Ryan O’Hearn, KC 1B – While the overall numbers may not allude to this, O’Hearn has been solid over the past two weeks for the Royals. Despite having just three home runs to show for it, his 60.0 percent hard contact rate is tied with Mookie Betts for sixth-best in baseball during that span, and he’s hitting a fly ball nearly one-third of the time. His ground ball rate is hovering around 40 percent during this span, which isn’t ideal for a power hitter, but he’s making loud contact, and that could lend itself to home runs down the stretch, especially if O’Hearn can trade in some worm killers for some sky scrapers! Another reason for optimism is that from a launch angle perspective, August was O’Hearn’s best month. See for yourself, courtesy of Baseball Savant.
The Kansas City first baseman rebounded well after a steady decline from the beginning of the year, and if he can hold this launch angle over the course of the final 30+ games of the season, he could knock three or four more balls out of the park for fantasy owners. That would be huge when stats matter the most for fantasy baseball owners.