Dansby Swanson – SS – Atlanta Braves
Height: 6’1” Weight: 190 – Bats/Throws: R/R
2016 Stats (AA)— .261/.342/.402, 8 HR, 45 RBI, 54 runs, 6 steals
2016 Stats (MLB)—.302/.361/.442, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 20 runs, 3 steals
Scouting Report
At the time of writing, Swanson is the No. 4 rated prospect in all of baseball, behind only Andrew Benintendi, Yoan Moncada and Gleyber Torres. After two productive years at Vanderbilt, he was selected first overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2015 MLB draft. After 22 games in Arizona’s system, he was traded to the Atlanta Braves. After 105 minor league games with the Braves, he got a taste of the bigs late last season.
Swanson is a smooth-swinging right hander who makes solid contact on a regular basis. Albeit a brief sample size in 2016, his hard-hit percentage was roughly three percent higher than the league average. His plate discipline is another aspect of his game that is so intriguing, especially since he’s only 23 years young. In Single-A ball, he posted walk rates above 14 percent. Sure, that number dipped a bit with the Braves in 38 games at the highest level, but a nine percent walk rate was still above the league average. He did chase pitches out of the zone on occasion, but his percentage of 28.8 percent bettered the league average. Sure, his strikeout percentage of 23.4 isn’t great, but his career numbers suggest that number should dip below 20 in 2017.
Swanson does have some power, but don’t expect a 20-homer season from the rookie in 2017. In time, he’ll likely reach that plateau, but that won’t be his game in 2017. However, from the get-go this year, he should be a top-of-the-order bat that peppers line drives all around the field. He has no major split disadvantages, hitting righties and lefties very well. His .302 average last season was inflated by a .371 BABIP, so his average will likely come down to the mid-.280s, which is where I see him on the low-end for his career.
Swanson doesn’t have any particular offensive trait that jumps off the table, Swanson is a well-rounded player who plays well beyond his years. He was moved up through the minors pretty quickly, but his maturity and all-around game should allow him to offset more of the major downfalls of getting to the majors on an informal accelerated program. He plays an exceptional defensive game at the position, which will definitely help keep him in the lineup every day for the Braves for years to come.
2017 Analysis
Take a look at Swanson’s brief 2016 campaign extrapolated to a full 162-game season.
| 2B | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
Swanson | 30 | 85 | 13 | 72 | 13 | .302 | .354 | .442 |
The slash line is exactly what he put up in 2016, but those numbers likely won’t be too far off. As mentioned earlier, a .371 BABIP inflated his average, so his batting average will likely slip down into the mid-.280s. As for all the other numbers, those are fair for his first big league season. However, SunTrust Park, the new home of the Atlanta Braves, is expected to play more favorably to hitters, so if that happens to be the case, we could see him increase those power numbers a notch or two.
On the other hand, if he falls closer to the bottom of the order, some of those numbers will certainly take a hit, most notably runs scored and RBI. Like many players in the realm of fantasy baseball, his fantasy value matters greatly on where he hits in the order. Even if he does begin the season near the bottom of the order, he’s still a viable fantasy asset, but some of those counting stats will take a slight hit. Still, that shouldn't be enough to detract you from selecting the young shortstop, especially in dynasty formats. The baseball season is a gauntlet and just because he starts the year in the bottom third of the lineup, doesn't mean that's where he finishes the year. He's too talented to stay down there for long.
Swanson has plenty of fantasy value in 2017 and he’s expected to be a pivotal part of the Atlanta organization for years to come. His glove is MLB ready and will keep him in the lineup every day, even during a prolonged slump. He’s one of the top prospects in all of baseball for a reason, so only time will tell what the Atlanta Braves have with the 23-year-old shortstop.
Comparisons
Troy Tulowitzki – Less power, but more speed
Current ADP
NFBC – 185.91
Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army – 185.28
RT Sports – 195.31