San Diego’s Jurickson Profar has been quite the revelation in fantasy baseball here in 2022. Dare I even apply the often overused fantasy baseball breakout label? Nonetheless, the early returns for those who invested in Profar have been positive, as he’s slugged four home runs and is getting on base at an excellent clip. I won’t argue the luxury of all of Profar’s positional flexibility as it does provide fantasy baseball managers with optimal outlets to insert him in the starting lineup. However, is what we are seeing from Profar fool’s gold? Is Profar a sell-high trade candidate in fantasy baseball? I mean, he’s played in more than 100 games just three times in his career, but to his credit, in two of those three seasons he hit 20 home runs.

 

For his career, his 162 game average statline is as follows: .236/.321/.388, 15 HR, 62 RBI, 71 R, 10 SB

Not bad by any means, and it can be useful, but I wouldn’t overvalue his start to the 2022 season and those looking to acquire Profar should be proceeding cautiously.

Profar does have four home runs in just 54 at-bats, but he’s still hitting just .222 and his 21.2 percent strikeout rate is above his career mark of 16.4 percent. To his credit, he’s making more contact and staying in the zone more, so perhaps that strikeout rate will dwindle as the season goes on. However, in that department, he kind of “is who he is,” in that he’ll post a modest strikeout rate and be far more useful in leagues that value on-base percentage compared to batting average.

 

The power production has been nice for Profar, don’t get me wrong, but it’s just not sustainable and for multiple reasons.

His average exit velocity is up over three miles per hour for his career. This will certainly stabilize over time, but the chart below is textbook “peaks and valleys” and he happens to be on the good side, yet still below average.

Furthermore, let’s talk about that 9.8 percent barrel rate. Dating back to 2016, his mark sits at 4.3 percent, and he’s only had one other year (2019) above five percent! His career mark is below MLB average, and now he’s up to nearly 10 percent, which is on par with Nolan Arenado, Wander Franco and Tyler O’Neill in 2022. This most certainly won’t hold.

Lastly, when he has barrelled up the ball, made solid contact, and lofted the ball, he’s been incredibly lucky. His HR/FB rate this year sits at 28.6 percent, and for his career, he’s just a 10.8 percent guy. Take a look at the graph below

He does have a sizable jump in his hard contact rate, which is obviously a good thing, but there is a slight decrease in his fly ball rate. So, you’re telling me that he’s making harder contact, hitting less fly balls, and enjoying an insane spike in his HR/FB rate? Something isn’t quite adding up there… Sounds like a good bit of luck to me, as well as something that simply isn’t sustainable.

 

His current pace has his 162 game average sitting at 38 HR, 114 RBI, 95 R, and 9 SB. If you roster Profar in your league and someone wants to sell the farm for that, do it without hesitation. His luck on home runs is sure to run out soon enough. Profar’s positional flexibility keeps him interesting in fantasy baseball, but don’t overpay for this home run binge he’s currently enjoying. 

Remember, any trade you make for a player on a “hot” streak requires paying mostly for what they have done and not what they will do moving forward.

 

Statistical Credits:

baseball-reference.com

fangraphs.com

baseballsavant.mlb.com