2021 NFL Draft Guide Player Profiles: Derek Carr

Whether you may have known it or not, Derek Carr quietly had a really good 2020 season. He completed 67 percent of his passes, and threw for a career-high 4,103 yards. His 27 passing touchdowns were excellent, and was the first time since 2016 he reached that threshold. Furthermore, from 2017-2019, he never posted a touchdown rate north of 4.3 percent, but in 2020, it was 5.2 percent, which was the second best mark of his career! Carr also had a career-best 140 rushing yards with three touchdowns! Not that it was a lot, but every bit helps! Carr is pretty cheap in drafts this year, so is he someone you should be considering as your QB2 in seasonal or best ball formats? The short answer is maybe. Let’s examine.

Carr finished the year as the QB13 and it marks the second straight year that he’s finished within the top 15 at the position. He had a couple clunkers last year, notably the first Denver game, Atlanta game and the second Chargers game, but other than those couple of games, he was a rather reliable option in fantasy. His fantasy production was lower in the beginning of the year when the Raiders were winning, but a struggling defense down the stretch opened the door for some shootouts, and Carr took advantage.

Over the final seven weeks of the season, Carr posted five QB1 games and was the QB11 in fantasy during that stretch! He also benefited from a massive switch in play calling tendencies, after a near 50/50 split through the first 10 weeks; Las Vegas threw it nearly two-thirds of the time down the stretch, per Sharp Football Stats.

• Weeks 1-10: 51:49 pass/run (6-3 record)
• Weeks 11-17: 62:38 pass/run (2-5 record)

Yes, Las Vegas threw it more, but Carr was making more of each attempt. Take a look at his numbers in some key metrics within the two aforementioned periods, per RotoViz and Pro Football Focus (PFF):

His 7.9 yards per attempt last year tied his career best and he was willing to push the ball downfield. This is a huge development for Carr, because in 2018 and 2019, he was fine dinking and dunking and not looking downfield. If you watched Raiders’ games, this likely won’t surprise, but if you didn’t watch them, read this, per PFF:

• Of quarterbacks that played in at least 12 games in 2018, only Cam Newton (8.5%) had a lower percentage of targets 20 or more yards downfield than Carr (9.2%).
• In 2019, Carr’s 9.4 percentage mark bested only Matt Ryan (9.1%), Jared Goff (8.9%) and Jimmy Garoppolo (6.5%)

In 2020, 11.6 percent of his targets were 20 or more yards downfield, per PFF. Why the switch? Well, the team drafted Henry Ruggs and his Olympic speed to be a vertical threat, and of all people, the revival and resurgence of Nelson Agholor! Agholor couldn’t catch a cold in Philadelphia and he became what Ruggs was supposed to be for the team last year. Carr and Agholor had quite the rapport, but I’m more than confident that Ruggs can take the step in his second season and fill the void left by Agholor. Nelson Agholor, of all freakin’ people! I can’t get over that. Oh, they also have some dynamic, athletic tight end named Darren Waller, who is apparently pretty good at football.

Instead of giving his weapons all the credit, Carr deserves some of his own. The veteran signal caller was lethal on deep passes. Only Aaron Rodgers and Daniel Jones had a higher big time throw rate on passes 20 or more yards downfield than Carr, per PFF, and his 53.5 percent adjusted completion percentage led all quarterbacks who played in at least 12 games last year. Lastly, Carr (10:2 TD/INT) was one of just three quarterbacks with double-digit touchdown passes and two or less interceptions on passes 20 or more yards downfield, per PFF. Who were the other two? Patrick Mahomes (13:2 TD/INT) and Aaron Rodgers (12:1 TD/INT).

Per NFFC data, Carr is the 24th quarterback off the board, which seems insanely low. I’m not saying to hinge your whole fantasy team as Carr being a QB1, or even your team’s QB1, but he’s being priced at his absolute floor. Why do I say that? Here are a couple factoids:

• His worst three game stretch last year (Weeks 10-12) was an average of 13.97 fantasy points per game. Over the course of a 16 game season, that would be 223.5 fantasy points, which would have been QB23 last year.
• If you take his 16 game average over the last three years, you get a total of 312.45 fantasy points, which would have been QB14 last year, QB12 in 2019 and QB15 in 2018.
• Carr has never finished outside the top 20 quarterbacks in a season. His worst finish was in 2014 when he was the QB20.
• His worst three game fantasy stretch last year resulted in 13.9 pts per game. Over 16 games, that comes to 223.4 fantasy points, which would have been the QB23 last year
• Since 2018, ranks 24th amongst active quarterbacks in fantasy points per game.

He has solid weapons at his disposal and as long as he continues to drive the ball downfield, don’t be surprised when he surpasses 30 passing touchdowns on the year. I love getting him as my QB2, because he’s dirt cheap, and he can pop off in the right matchups. The Las Vegas signal caller is far from a flashy or sexy pick, but he’s being undervalued across the board.

Carr is being drafted as nearly a QB3, but has the upside to produce high-end QB2 numbers.

Statistical Credits:

profootballfocus.com
rotoviz.com
sharpfootballstats.com