2021 NFL Draft Guide Player Profiles: Josh Allen

What a career trajectory Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has been on. In his rookie season, he completed just 52.8 percent of his passes and had a 10:12 TD/INT ratio in 12 games. Videos in offseason/preseason popped up of him overthrowing receivers by miles and there were legitimate concerns about his accuracy. In the 2019 season, he comes out and completes nearly 59 percent of his passes and posts a 20:9 TD/INT ratio in a full season. After throwing 30 touchdown passes in his first 28 games, he sets the world ablaze in 2020, throwing for over 4,500 yards with 37 touchdowns and a sky high 69 percent completion rate! He and Brian Daboll had things figured out, and the addition of Stefon Diggs certainly helped. He statistically cannot endure another leap like each year thus far, but how much, if at all, better can Josh Allen get? There’s room to grow and there’s a lot going for him.

He was incredibly accurate last year, as he dropped his bad throw rate over four percentage points from the year prior and nearly 10 percentage points from 2018, per Pro Football Reference. Furthermore, his 79.1 percent on target rate blows away his 73.2 percent mark from 2019, per Pro Football Reference. He threw for the fifth-most yards and had the fifth-highest adjusted completion percentage, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), and Allen was one of just four quarterbacks with at least eight 300-yard passing games in 2020. Lastly, he was one of just six quarterbacks with an aDOT above nine yards, but a turnover worthy percentage mark of less than 3.5 percent, per PFF. His ability to drive the ball downfield, but avoid potential turnovers was, and is, a massive development for the young signal caller.

From a fantasy perspective, at least in 2020, he was three times as likely to finish inside the top five at his position compared to outside of the top 15. He was a top five fantasy quarterback on nine occasions last season, whereas he finished outside of the top 15 just three times. That’s crazy.

To be an elite fantasy quarterback, you have to have some sort of rushing production. You don’t have to be Lamar Jackson-esque with your mobility, but you have to put some fantasy points on the board with your legs. Well, Allen has done just that. He’s scored at least eight rushing touchdowns in each of his three professional seasons, and since he entered the league, here is where he stands in some of rushing metrics:

Courtesy of RotoViz 

He’s been one of the better rushing quarterbacks over the last three years in terms of output, but his yardage has decreased each season. Furthermore, there has also been an ever so slight dip in his attempts per game. His attempts per game have dropped from 7.4, to 6.8, to 6.4, and concurrently, his yards per carry mark has dropped from 7.1, to 4.7 and down to 4.1 in 2020. However, yes, the yardage total is decreasing, but if he continues to get carries around the red zone, you can live with the drop in yardage. If he’s going to lose carries, it’s best that it happens outside of the red zone. For Allen, it’s about the quality of the carries and not the quantity. Take a look at his red zone rushing numbers over the years:

Courtesy of PFF

To be nice, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary and Matt Breida isn’t the most inspiring backfield, so don’t be surprised if the Bills once again rely on the quick-passing game as a de-facto run game, as well as letting their nearly 240 pound quarterback hammer it home at the goal line. Again, the quality of Josh Allen’s carries in 2021 is more imperative than the overall quantity, especially considering that his health is of paramount importance. Picking and choosing their spots with him is crucial, and he’s willing to get the yards that matter.

Speaking of running, we have to give a huge credit to Brian Daboll for what he was able to do with the passing attack and helping Allen transcend to another level. With no run game, the Buffalo Bills were able to be lethal on play action. Typically, if a defense doesn’t fear the run, play action passes don’t work as much. Well, Allen led the league in passing yards on play action passes, and posted an exceptional 17:3 TD/INT ratio, per PFF.

The addition of Stefon Diggs to the offense can’t be understated or underestimated either. Compared to 2018 and 2019, also known as the Pre-Diggs era in Buffalo, Josh Allen averaged two more yards per attempt when he had Diggs out wide. The addition of a tried-and-true WR1 unlocked Allen, and the team will hope that the addition of Emmanuel Sanders and continued development of Gabriel Davis will help Allen take another small step forward.

Our very own Howard Bender said it best, so let me reiterate that here: “They [Buffalo] increased their use of multiple-wideout sets (10 and 11-personnel) and utilized the array of receivers, backs and tight ends to confuse the defense and open things up more.”

How much better can Allen get? I don’t think he can statistically take another meteoric leap like he did from 2019 to 2020, but there’s definitely some room for some growth. Daboll is an offensive mastermind and has added weapons to improve upon the game plan. Gabriel Davis is another year older and wiser, while Emmanuel Sanders is a proven vet that has been successful over the years. Diggs is one of the game’s best receivers and Allen has proven to be one of the more effective running quarterbacks. Will his rushing total drop for a third straight season? With the extra game probably not, but I do expect him to continue to be involved in the red zone, which should add even further stability to his touchdown totals.

The only quarterback you can comfortably take ahead of Allen is Patrick Mahomes. Allen is in a great offensive scheme with a pass-first approach, and he handles enough of the total carries, especially where it counts, leading him to have one of the higher fantasy floors at his position.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
rotoviz.com