2021 NFL Draft Guide Player Profiles: Miles Sanders

After an impressive rookie campaign when he totaled over 1,300 total yards, Philadelphia running back Miles Sanders failed to meet that mark in 2020. He missed four games, which hurt his ability to pile up his stats, and if it weren’t for those injuries, he likely would have put up a season better than his 2019 year when he finished as the RB15 in PPR formats. In 12 games last season, he ran for 871 yards on 164 carries and found the end zone six times. He caught just 28 of 52 targets through the air, totaling 197 receiving yards and failing to find the end zone. He ended the year as the RB23, but on a points per game basis, Sanders was the RB16 amongst running backs who played in at least ten games. He took a sizable step back in the passing attack, as his yards per reception mark dropped by three yards, and he barely caught half of his targets, just one year after catching 79 percent of them! Sanders is the clear-cut RB1 for his team, but will he get workhorse duties in 2021, en route to his first RB1 campaign?

The team will operate under Jalen Hurts in 2021, and if you check out his player profile, you’ll know that I have serious concerns about his ability to develop as a passer at the game’s highest level. It’s no surprise that when he took over at the end of the year that Philadelphia’s play calling was altered. Through the first 13 weeks of the season, the Eagles had the league’s third-highest pass rate, but in the final four weeks of the season with Hurts under center, they employed the league’s 11th-lowest pass rate. In the five games where Hurts has attempted at least seven passes, the Eagles, on average, have thrown the ball four less times per game, for about 15 less yards per game, and ran the ball about three more times compared to with another quarterback under center the past two seasons, per RotoViz.

The saving grace for Sanders is that even though the team threw it less, the running backs maintained their 17 percent target share, but averaged nearly a full yard more per attempt, per Sharp Football Stats. I expect Hurts to throw it to the running backs a good bit, considering he lived right around the line of scrimmage last year, and easy completions can boost a young signal caller’s confidence.

So, what does this mean for Sanders? Well, there’s some good and bad with it. First, take a look at Sanders’ numbers last year in games where Hurts threw at least seven pass attempts:

Courtesy of RotoViz

The good is that with Hurts under center, the team will likely lean on the running game and short passing attack. Adding DeVonta Smith to that receiver room helps attempt to get the ball downfield, but while Hurts is developing and maturing, expect more work in the short game, as well as plenty of screens to the running backs. Sanders should thrive there, as he is electric with the football in his hands. In the red zone specifically, Sanders had 11 carries inside the 20 over the final four weeks last season, which led the team. Now, Hurts did have five carries (three touchdowns) himself, so we could see a situation similar to Buffalo or Baltimore, where the quarterback poaches the red zone and goal line carries. This will be something to monitor over the full season. It’s a small sample size, but Sanders didn’t see a single target from Hurts in the red zone down the stretch last year. Just something to chew on…

In Sanders’ final three games of the year (Weeks 14-16), his share of the team’s rushing attempts took a bit of a hit. However, since Philly was running more, his carries per game actually jumped slightly. However, it’s going to be tough to trust him early in drafts if the quarterback is commanding such a large share of the rushing volume.

Courtesy of RotoViz

Sure, over the course of a full 17-game season, Hurts likely doesn’t take 40 percent of the team’s carries, but to think he won’t be involved a bunch is a mistake.

Last year, the narrative was Sanders was if he gets full-time, workhorse responsibilities, he’s going to be a star in fantasy. Honestly, that narrative remains the same this year. However, will it happen in 2021? I don’t know if I can say so with definitive confidence. Here’s why, in a nutshell:

• Two games with 20 or more carries in his career (28 games)
• Three games with five or more receptions in his career
• Just five games with 20 or more total touches
• Eagles claimed Kerryon Johnson off waivers early in offseason
• Drafted Kenneth Gainwell in the 5th round
• Retained Boston Scott and Jordan Howard on the roster

Situation aside, as a pure talent, Sanders is excellent. However, the situation knocks him down a few pegs in fantasy football, and it’s hard to trust him as the RB1 on your fantasy team when he hardly gets more than half of the carries on his own team! He’s too talented to not be force-fed the football, and with the Eagles brass making a concerted effort, it seems like they are going to employ a balanced rushing attack. Yes, Sanders leads the way, but the backups are going to take just enough of his workload to be quite the nuisance.

Per NFFC data, Sanders is the 18th running back off the board, being selected on average in the middle of the third round. The talented running back will be the RB1 of his team, but his backups are going to eat enough into his role that we won’t have the workload of a traditional RB1 in fantasy. With that being said, he is uber-talented, and is arguably one of the best two or three running backs deployed in a similar fashion to him. If you’re drafting him as your RB2, you’re banking on his talent and that he is efficient with the carries given to him. There’s a lot to like about Sanders, but there’s enough roadblocks preventing me from making him the RB1 of my fantasy team

Statistical Credits:

rotoviz.com
profootballfocus.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football
sharpfootballstats.com