While his numbers from 2020 didn’t quite match his 2019 numbers, Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews posted his second-straight season as a top-six fantasy tight end. In fact, he finished the 2020 season as the TE6 in PPR, TE5 in half-point, and TE4 in standard formats! After totaling 852 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2019, Andrews took a slight step back last year, but he was still excellent, catching 58 balls for 701 yards and seven touchdowns. Andrews has proven to be a valuable part of the Baltimore offense, but where is his ceiling in fantasy football on a run-first team? Can he reach it in his fourth professional season? Let’s discuss.

At the [fantasy] game’s thinnest and most volatile position, Andrews has been one of the more consistent options over the past two years. In 2020, here is where he ranked amongst tight ends in the National Football League.

  • 7th-most targets
  • 9th-most receptions
  • 5th-most yards
  • 5th-highest average depth of target (aDOT)

Baltimore employs the most run-heavy scheme in the National Football League, running it at least 54 percent of the time in each of the past two seasons, per Sharp Football Stats. However, Andrews doesn’t sacrifice a ton here because when Baltimore does throw the ball, tight ends are targeted 28 percent of the time, which trails only five other teams. Since the start of 2019, the Ravens and Eagles are tied for the league lead in 35 percent of the targets going to the tight end position, per Sharp Football Stats, and the average yards per attempt for Baltimore tight ends is 7.7 yards, which is the eleventh-highest mark over the past two years.

Additionally, when it comes to the red zone, Andrews has been a beast. In 2020, he had the second-most targets amongst tight ends in the red zone, catching 18 of 31 targets for all seven of his touchdowns. Since the start of 2019, when in the red zone, Baltimore has targeted the tight end position 41 percent of the time, which is second-highest in the league, trailing only Las Vegas, per Sharp Football Stats. This is the same target rate as the wide receiver position for Baltimore!

What I find most enticing about Andrews in Baltimore is that used where it matters for his position, which is downfield and in the red zone. Per RotoViz, Andrews had the fourth-most air yards amongst all tight ends in 2020, and he actually led all tight ends in a percentage of his team’s air yards! We’ve already discussed Andrews’ red zone presence and prominence, but on passes 20 or more yards downfield last year, Lamar Jackson had a 122.4 passer rating when targeting Andrews, per Pro Football Focus. LOVE THAT!

Baltimore knows what they have in Andrews and they don’t waste time with him blocking. For fantasy purposes, nothing is more infuriating than watching the team snap the ball and your tight end is staying in and taking a bull rush from a 280-pound defensive lineman or 245-pound linebacker. Well, that’s hardly the case with Andrews, as he stayed in to block just 1.1 percent of the time in 2020, per Pro Football Focus. Excellent.

Andrews had at least six targets in all but one of his final seven games (playoffs included) last year, and he’s found the end zone 17 times over the past two seasons. Now, the Ravens have added some weapons, notably Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins out wide, but Andrews’ presence and role in the offense is unscathed. His overall upside in PPR formats could be slightly capped, considering Baltimore will never become a high-octane passing offense in terms of volume, but his consistency cannot be understated. Watkins, Bateman, and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown will command a good bit of attention from the opposing safeties, and with 54.3 percent of Andrews’ targets coming in the middle of the field in 2020, per PFF, that third of the field is primarily his.

Per NFFC data, Andrews is currently the TE4, coming just a few picks ahead of Kyle Pitts and T.J. Hockenson. However, in a lot of drafts that I’ve done, Pitts is routinely the TE4, and then Hockenson and Andrews flip flop as the TE5 and TE6. If you restrict the ADP data for just the month of June, that order flips to Pitts, Hockenson, and then Andrews.

Pitts and Hockenson expect to see more overall volume in their respective offenses, so in PPR formats, those guys get a boost, but as the point totals go down on a reception basis, Andrews is moving up for me. If he slips in your league’s draft, buy on the discount. After the Pitts/Hockenson/Andrews tier, it’s a slippery slope at the tight end position, and Andrews can finish as high as the No. 2 tight end this year.


Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
rotoviz.com
sharpfootballstats.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football