Despite ranking in the bottom three of the league in each of the past two seasons in pass attempts, A.J. Brown has rewarded those who invested in him handsomely. In 2019, he caught 52 of 84 targets for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite some knee issues and appearing in two fewer games than his rookie campaign, Brown bested nearly all of his numbers, as he caught 70 of 106 targets for 1,075 yards and 11 touchdowns. In PPR formats, he averaged nearly 18 fantasy points per game, en route to finishing the season as the WR14 overall. Missing two games last year didn’t do him any justice in the final rankings, as he just missed out on being a WR1. However, when he was on the field, he was electric and put up a top-12 performance nearly half of the time (43% per RotoViz). The dynamic receiver also finished the year ranked inside the top ten in fantasy points per snap, and per touch, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

I just mentioned it above but take a look at Brown’s marks through the year in terms of fantasy points and weekly finishes. There’s quite a bit of green, and the majority is green or black, indicating a top-12 or top-24 finish.
 

The star receiver is big, fast, and strong and is a match-up nightmare for opposing corners. Of receivers with at least 100 targets in 2020, Brown was tied for the seventh-highest contested catch rate, per PFF. He can high point the football and win in traffic, which is obviously why he’s endeared himself to quarterback Ryan Tannehill so quickly. On the other hand, he also had the ninth-highest drop rate within the above parameters, per PFF. Brown commanded 26 percent of the target share in 2020, per RotoViz, but that number could take a bit of a hit with some receiver named Julio Jones coming to town. Never heard of him, so I’ll have to look him up a bit more.

Tennessee doesn’t throw the ball a ton, but Brown was still able to record at least six targets in all but one game in 2021. Furthermore, that didn’t stop Brown from tearing up the league down the stretch. Over the last eight weeks of the season, Brown posted the seventh-most receiving yards, despite being targeted less than Atlanta’s Russell Gage, and he was the WR6 in PPR formats, per PFF.

Okay, back to this Julio Jones guy. Apparently, he’s good at football, so will he eat into Brown’s workload? With how good Jones is, he’s going to get a good bit of Tannehill’s attention, but the addition of Jones certainly does not make Brown obsolete in the Tennessee offense. Maybe Brown loses a bit of volume, but he could arguably be more effective with one of the league’s best receivers opposite him. Prior to Jones, Corey Davis was the primary receiver opposite him, and Brown’s numbers when Davis excelled were right on par with his regular numbers. 

When Davis didn’t play, Brown wasn’t significantly better. Sure, correlation doesn’t always mean causation, but like most receivers, Brown benefits from having another viable weapon on the field. When you look specifically at games in which Corey Davis had at least ten PPR points, Brown didn’t see much of a drop-off in those contests.

Ultimately, Brown has just proven to be very consistent in his first two seasons, so even if he loses out on some volume, he should remain efficient with his targets. The play isn’t over for Brown when he catches the ball either, as he’s proven to be one of the league’s most dynamic receivers after the catch. He averaged 8.9 yards (1st) and 6.1 yards (11th) after the catch per reception in 2019 and 2020 respectively, per RotoViz. 

Also, yes, Tennessee still has Derrick Henry, but given his insane workload the last two seasons, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tennessee throw the ball more than in recent years. Over the past three seasons, Tennessee has ranked 31st, 31st, and 30th in total pass attempts. Also, with the 17-game season incoming, the team could look to lessen the load on Henry’s legs, which would mean more pass attempts for Tannehill, Brown, and Jones. For what it’s worth, in Todd Downing’s only year as an Offensive Coordinator (OAK in 2017), they were 15th in pass attempts and 30th in rushing attempts, per Pro Football Reference. No, Tennessee will not completely abandon the run, but it would behoove them to take the load off Henry a bit, especially with the extra game, and the fact that his rushing numbers have increased every year since entering the league (10, 176, 215, 303, 378)! Including the playoffs, he’s handled 386 and 396 carries the past two seasons.

Saying anything negative about Brown on Twitter unleashes the Brown stans and it never goes well for the person who mentioned it. However, there’s no perfect fantasy player, and there are two concerns with Brown in 2021. The first is touchdown regression, and the second is his achy knees.

Potential Touchdown Regression?

The addition of Jones could affect Brown, especially in the red zone. Brown scored 11 touchdowns on the year in 2020, nine of which came in the red zone. However, Brown scored nine red zone touchdowns on just 17 targets (12 receptions). Nine of his 12 grabs in the red zone went for touchdowns. Can he sustain that percentage in 2021 with Jones there as well? It could be tough. Tennessee also had a 55 percent run rate in the red zone last year, which was the eighth-highest, per Sharp Football Stats. I’m not saying that Brown will regress in the touchdown department, but I am saying that replicating that sort of success within the 20’s on such little volume will be very tough for a second straight season.

Achy Knees

Brown did miss two games last year, which were the first two he’s missed in his young career, and he was on record saying he battled through injuries to finish the season. Over the offseason, he had surgery on both knees but is expected to be ready to go this year with no problems. He’s shown incredible grit gutting through injuries in both 2019 and 2020, but long term, the knees could become a bigger concern. For 2021, I’m not overly concerned, but it is something to note, nonetheless.

Brown is currently the eighth receiver off the board in NFFC drafts, but since the acquisition of Julio Jones, while he’s still the eighth receiver off the board, you can see that he is sliding a few spots back in some drafts.
 

The addition of Jones may be enough of an impedance to an overall WR1 season for the third-year receiver, but he’s still firmly entrenched in the WR1 category this season. He has an excellent rapport with his quarterback, and he plays in a division with teams that he averages nearly 17 fantasy points (PPR) per game against, per RotoViz. The added competition for targets can easily be offset with Tennessee throwing a bit more this season, which I expect them to do. Brown is a surefire WR1 this season and should be drafted as such.


Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
rotoviz.com
pro-football-reference.com
sharpfootballstats.com