On April 23rd, 2020, the fantasy football community’s eyes were opened wide as the Kansas City Chiefs selected LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the last pick of the first round. A running back needy team taking a running back in the first round would surely mean big things and an RB1 worthy season as “the” guy for the league’s most potent offense. Well, there were certainly shades of that, but a lackluster second half of the season put a sizable stench on the rookie’s season.

Edwards-Helaire ended the year as the RB22 in PPR formats, tallying 803 rushing yards with four touchdowns, and adding 36 grabs for 297 yards and one touchdown through the air. He did have three drops last year, but being a rookie in the COVID-ridden season is something that cannot be understated. Ultimately, the 2020 season came down to a tale of two halves for the talented young back.

Through the first seven games of the season, he was everything and more (for the most part) for his fantasy managers. Take a look at some of his marks through the first seven games of the season in the entire league:

  • 2nd-most rushing yards
  • 4th-most yards per attempt
  • T-5th most targets (31)
  • Most avoided tackles (per PFF)
  • RB7 in PPR

The fact that he was only the RB7 was rather underwhelming, giving the numbers above. What hurt him was that he scored just two touchdowns in the first seven weeks of the season (Week 1 vs. HOU, Week 7 vs. DEN). Touchdowns are key, and it wasn’t for a lack of trying. He got plenty of goal line work, but just couldn’t punch it in. In terms of his workload, through the first six weeks, he had double-digit carries in every game, including three games with 20 or more carries. From Week 7 on, he had three games with single-digit carries, and only one game (Week 14 vs. MIA) with more than 15 touches. The addition of Le’Veon Bell and the perceived thought that they wanted to ease the rookie’s workload drove fantasy owners insane.

To make it easier, and to clearly showcase how big Edwards-Helaire’s steep drop off was, take a look at the table below:

 Weeks 1-7Weeks 8-17
Rushing YPG78.7 ypg44.25 ypg
Yards Per Carry4.79 ypc3.85 ypc
Fantasy Pts. Per Snap (PPR)0.350.28
Fantasy Pts. per Touch (PPR)0.790.81
Snap Share65%53%
Target Share15%8%
% of Team’s Rushing Attempts57%46%
PPR RankRB7RB34

The drop off was clear and a massive fantasy swing. Kansas City also shifted its overall mentality, too. Through the first seven weeks of the season, they were in the top half of the league with a 44-percent run rate, per Sharp Football Stats. However, from Week 8 on, their 34 percent run rate was tied for second-lowest in the entire National Football League, per Sharp Football Stats. Hey, with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, I cannot blame Andy Reid and Co. for wanting to sling the rock a bit more.

It’s not a perfect practice, but if you extrapolate his numbers from the first seven weeks (15.92 fantasy ppg) over the course of a full season, he would have ended the year with 254.72 fantasy points, which would have made him the RB7, coming in a tick behind Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor. Now, imagine if he would have found the end zone more often those first few weeks…. Oh, what could have been…

Ultimately, when it comes to your draft day, there are two big questions/ideologies at play that you need to weigh and consider.

  1. Will the 2021 version of Edwards-Helaire be more comparable to the first “half” of the year, or the latter part of the year?
  2. If you were burned by him last year, are you willing to take the dive again?

Personally, I’m betting on a return to form for Edwards-Helaire in 2021. The talent isn’t the question and I think Kansas City’s lack of notable additions to its backfield is a ringing endorsement for the former LSU star. Think about it this way: he has yet to have a real preseason with the team. The 2020 preseason was riddled with Zoom meetings and was far from the traditional rookie experience, so this preseason will be huge for the young back. In a more “normal” year, the team hasn’t added notable depth to the running back position, which to me signals that it is his backfield to dominate. It should signal that to you as well.

Kansas City has added some horses up front to its offensive line and should at least be as efficient in run blocking (11th-highest graded team, per PFF), if not better in 2021. Edwards-Helaire is currently going off the board as the RB17 in NFFC drafts, and that is criminal.

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Statistical Credits:

profootballfocus.com

rotoviz.com 

sharpfootballstats.com

nfc.shgn.com/adp/football