Welcome back to another week of CFB picks and college football best bets for Saturday's Week 11 CFB schedule. Unfortunately, we're coming off an 0-3 week with our college football picks as Georgia and South Carolina failed to cover while Iowa State lost. Even so, it's time to rebound and get back on the winning train. Our CFB Week 11 best bets feature Arizona vs Colorado and Alabama vs Kentucky. Enjoy these CFB picks and college football predictions as you tune into the Week 11 games. Plus, keep an eye out for the CFB DFS Playbook for top Week 11 college football daily fantasy picks. Let's now get to the college football best bets and CFB betting picks for Saturday, November 11th.
Check out Thursday's Bettor Sports Betting show for more CFB Week 11 bets:
College Football Week 11 Best Bets
Arizona at Colorado
Saturday, 2 pm ET
Arizona has been a bettor’s dream this season with an impressive 8-1 ATS mark, including three straight outright victories as an underdog. The Wildcats continue to surprise oddsmakers and Pac-12 opponents every week. Now, they’re two-score favorites on the road at Colorado – which should tell you a lot about how Vegas views the Buffs at this point despite their hot start to the season.
Freshman QB Noah Fifita has the Arizona offense humming since he took over for Jayden de Laura in late September. In Fifita’s five starts, the Wildcats are averaging 32.6 points and 431.2 total yards per game while going a perfect 5-0 ATS as underdogs in this stretch. Their passing offense now ranks 22nd in college football in terms of yards per game.
Now Arizona gets to face one of the worst defenses in the sport. In conference play, Colorado ranks 129th in pass defense while allowing 318.5 passing yards per game. The rush defense isn’t much better, but the Buffaloes have routinely gotten torched through the air by opposing Pac-12 quarterbacks. Add Fifita and the list this week as it should help Arizona stretch out a lead too big for Colorado to overcome.
The Buffs are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season, but the last two covers deserve some context. Colorado was a double-digit dog to both Oregon State and UCLA in these past two weeks and needed a late score to cover the spread in both. Of course, the back door is always open with Deion Sanders having his guys play to the final whistle. Still, Arizona should win this one with ease to cover.
The Wildcats' defense is one of the more underrated units in the Pac-12 and in college football. Arizona is allowing only 22.3 PPG in conference play (34th-best in FBS) while giving up 350.8 total yards per game (39th). Over the past three games during their current win streak, the Wildcats have held some dangerous quarterbacks and offenses in check (Washington State, Oregon State, and UCLA). The Colorado attack can be a threat with Shedeur Sanders under center, but the offense has been struggling lately – especially with OC Sean Lewis getting demoted from play-calling duties. The Buffs have scored only 16 and 19 points in the past two games, which won’t cut it while trying to keep pace with a potent Arizona offense.
PICK: Arizona -10 (-110 BetMGM)
Alabama at Kentucky
Saturday, 12 pm ET
Alabama is coming off back-to-back double-digit wins over LSU and Tennessee heading into this weekend’s matchup. Those victories were impressive and made a statement to the college football world that Bama hasn’t gone anywhere. Even so, the Crimson Tide could be in for a slight letdown going on the road at Kentucky for a sleepy noon kickoff.
Last week, the Alabama offense took advantage of an easy matchup against a terrible and short-handed LSU defense. Things get much tougher with a Kentucky defense that ranks 22nd nationally against the run in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. If the Wildcats can limit the Tide’s rushing attack, then it’ll force Jalen Milroe to be more efficient and accurate with his short and intermediate throws. Milroe has a big arm and can hit the deep ball, but his down-to-down passing skills with normal throws are still very unproven.
Plus, a big part of Milroe’s game is his dual-threat ability as we saw last week when he ran for 155 yards and four TDs to lead Bama’s rushing attack. Fortunately for Kentucky, it was valuable experience already against some running QBs and has mostly held them in check. The Wildcats’ only three losses this season came against Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee – all teams that use short-to-medium passes to move the ball with above-average throwing QBs. That’s not Alabama’s game.
On the other side, Kentucky’s offense should keep this one close with Devin Leary playing a lot better now that he’s over an early-season shoulder injury. He’s also good to go after dealing with blurred vision last week. The Wildcats boast a balanced offense with RB Ray Davis anchoring the run game.
As for some ATS trends, those suggest fading Alabama in this spot. Over the past three years, Bama has gone just 4-8 ATS on the road, failing to cover by over seven points per game. Plus, as a favorite of more than a touchdown on the road, the Tide are only 3-8 ATS in this recent stretch. Kentucky should keep this one within 10 points to cover in what will likely be a lower-scoring game as well – which benefits the double-digit dog.
PICK: Kentucky +10.5 (-105 BetMGM)
Other CFB Week 11 Bets:
- Michigan/Penn State Under 45.5
- Wake Forest +2.5
- Georgia -10.5
- Alabama/Kentucky Under 49 (BettorEdge contest)