The College Football Playoff continues this week with some Quarterfinal matchups on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. It’s time to lock in our CFB Best Bets before the action gets underway. We also have multiple college football bowl games all day on Wednesday before the CFP showdowns. Let’s jump into the top CFB picks for the Playoff games and other bowl matchups. 

 

 

 

CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Bowl Games & College Football Playoffs

Let’s kick off our CFB Best Bets with Wednesday night’s CFP Quarterfinal matchup between Miami (FL) and Ohio State. Plus, we’ll break down the Ole Miss vs. Georgia showdown on New Year’s Day. Be sure to check out more CFB picks below for the entire slate of bowl games and Playoff matchups. Good luck!  

 

 

 

Miami (FL) vs. Ohio State Prediction: Wednesday, December 31st

The College Football Playoff Quarterfinals get underway on New Year’s Eve with a matchup between Miami (FL) and Ohio State. The Buckeyes are favored by more than a touchdown in Arlington, Texas, for this Cotton Bowl showdown. It should be an OSU victory, but let’s look at the total for our CFB picks. 

Both defenses will keep this a low-scoring game. Ohio State’s 8.2 PPG allowed is the lowest in the entire sport. Meanwhile, Miami is giving up just 13.0 PPG this year (4th in FBS). This pair of dominant defenses will set the tone for a battle where points will be at a premium. 

Miami (FL) is at its best offensively when Carson Beck and the passing game get into a groove. That’ll be tough to do against an elite Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes are 1st in the FBS in passing yards allowed per game with a top-tier secondary. They’re also dominant against the run, ranking 3rd in defensive EPA/Rush and 5th in defensive success rate vs. the rush. 

In Miami’s last win over Texas A&M, the passing attack struggled to get going while the run anchored the offense. The Hurricanes were able to lean on Mark Fletcher Jr. for 172 rushing yards, as he represented basically the only offensive success. If Ohio State can shut down Fletcher and the Miami rushing, then it’ll put more pressure on Beck to make plays through the air. As noted above, the Buckeyes’ secondary should quiet that part of the offense as well. 

Meanwhile, Miami boasts a strong defense of its own. In particular, the ‘Canes have a ferocious pass rush with multiple studs along the defensive line. They can pressure Julian Sayin enough to limit the OSU offense, which relies more on its passing. Miami ranks 18th nationally in defensive success rate vs. the pass and 14th in defensive passing EPA. 

Plus, we’ve seen Ohio State face two upper-tier defenses this season – and it struggled in both matchups. The Buckeyes held in check offensively in the Big Ten title game against Indiana’s elite defense, mustering only 10 points with multiple unsuccessful drives. In addition, OSU put up just 14 points against Texas back at the beginning of the year. 

We also have some notable trends pointing to the under. Miami is 4-1 to the under in games away from home this year. The Hurricanes are also 7-3 to the under in their last 10 games overall. Ohio State is 9-4 to the under this year, including 6-2 in the last 8 games. The Buckeyes are also 6-0 to the under away from home. 

 

 

 

Ole Miss vs. Georgia Prediction: Thursday, January 1st

The final CFP Quarterfinal matchup on New Year’s Day features an SEC showdown. It’s a rematch from an earlier-season game as Ole Miss takes on Georgia. In this Sugar Bowl setting in New Orleans, the Bulldogs are favored by nearly a touchdown. Let’s break it down. 

Georgia beat Ole Miss, 43-35, at home back in October when these teams first met. We can take a few things away from that game. First, the Bulldogs had a ton of success on offense with 510 total yards. They also scored on each of their first 8 drives of the game, before taking knees at the end in the final possession. 

On the other side, Ole Miss struggled to get the run game going. Stud RB Kewan Lacy only had 31 rushing yards on 12 carries while the Rebels averaged just 3.7 yards per carry as a team. In the passing game, Trinidad Chambliss finished with a poor 53% completion rate (19-for-36). Ole Miss scored 35 points, but it overperformed on the scoreboard with how the offense actually looked at times. 

Plus, Georgia showed a ton of fight to erase a double-digit deficit at the start of the fourth quarter. The ‘Dogs outscored Ole Miss, 17-0, over the final 15 minutes to take the game over. Their defense, in particular, held the Rebels to just 13 total yards over the final three possessions to cement the victory. 

Though Ole Miss had the lead and looked live to pull the upset, that fourth quarter might be the true indicator of how this rematch can go. Georgia’s defense came alive and figured out how to shut down Chambliss, Lacy, and the Rebels’ high-powered offense. On the other side, Gunner Stockton led multiple clutch drives down the stretch and proved his winning mentality. 

Georgia got a scare from Ole Miss in that game, but it also used the win to propel a strong finish to the season. The Bulldogs allowed just 11.7 PPG over the next 6 games. They notably held Alabama to only 7 points in the SEC title game and limited Texas to 10 points in another matchup. Kirby Smart’s unit can be a difference-maker in this Sugar Bowl playoff to hold Ole Miss in check. 

Speaking of Smart, it’s impossible to ignore the discrepancy in head coaching experience here. Smart, a two-time national champ, knows what it takes to win in December and January. He’s led Georgia to multiple Playoff appearances with proven success. Meanwhile, Pete Golding is brand-new to this environment after taking over for Lane Kiffin. The latter’s departure still looms over the Ole Miss program. Golding led the Rebels to a convincing blowout over Tulane in the first round, but the competition now ramps up. 

Georgia should win this game and cover the spread. It’s a much better team than Ole Miss saw in the first meeting. The Bulldogs' defense is playing at an elite level and will be a key factor. The Rebels’ bottom-tier rush defense will also prove to be an issue as UGA looks to dominate the line of scrimmage and grind out long, successful drives – just like we saw in the first meeting. 

 

 

 

Best CFB Prop Bets & Other Picks for Wednesday & Thursday

 

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