#9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana Predictions, Picks & Odds: CFB Playoffs, 1/1

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals present one of the most intriguing matchups of the postseason as the storied Alabama faces off against the undefeated Indiana in the Rose Bowl. The Crimson Tide come in as the No. 9 seed, still seeking to regain offensive consistency under Kalen DeBoer, while Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have exceeded all preseason expectations with exceptional efficiency on both sides of the field. 

Indiana arrives at the Rose Bowl with a perfect 13-0 record, having secured victories over Oregon and Ohio State, and showcasing one of the most comprehensive statistical profiles in the nation. On the other hand, Alabama has navigated a season filled with inconsistencies but remains a formidable opponent due to its elite talent and a coaching staff adept at optimizing preparation time. So, what’s in store for our #9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana picks?

#9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana Predictions for the CFB Playoffs, Thursday, 1/1

Oddsmakers have made Indiana a favorite by more than a touchdown, yet the betting market has been hesitant to raise this line significantly. This reluctance is telling. While Alabama’s offense may have its shortcomings, its defense is of playoff caliber, and Indiana has not encountered many teams with such a blend of speed, depth, and tactical versatility.

Instead of concentrating on the teams, the most compelling aspect of this matchup lies in the total. This matchup is characterized as a defensive battle marked by trench warfare, pass-rush intensity, and lengthy, deliberate drives — all elements that lean towards our #9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana predictions being on the Under.

#9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana Best Bet: Under 48.5 (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Let’s begin with Alabama. The Crimson Tide have faced significant challenges in establishing a reliable running game throughout the season, placing them near the bottom of the national rankings for yards gained after contact.

This weakness is further highlighted against an Indiana defensive line that is among the top in the nation at preventing movement at the line of scrimmage. If Alabama fails to establish a running game, they risk becoming predictable — and predictability against Indiana’s defensive setup poses a significant challenge.

Ty Simpson has had a standout season, yet his effectiveness significantly declines under pressure or when blitzed. Indiana excels at generating pressure during standard dropbacks and has demonstrated a readiness to ramp up blitzing in crucial matchups. Despite some injuries affecting the Hoosiers’ defensive line, their overall strategy remains solid, and Alabama’s frequent third-down situations only enhance Indiana’s advantages.

In long-yardage situations, teams face extended drives, reduced explosive plays, and increased clock runoff — particularly if Alabama is compelled to throw short and play it safe against a ball-hawking secondary. While the Tide might manage a big play or two, consistently maintaining scoring drives proves to be a significant challenge.

Conversely, Indiana’s offense is known for its explosiveness, but context is crucial. Fernando Mendoza has excelled against most teams, yet Alabama poses a completely different challenge. The Tide ranks among the top in the nation for dropback EPA allowed and excels at curbing downfield passing success. Indiana doesn’t heavily depend on vertical throws; instead, they focus on quick passes, RPOs, and effective execution on early downs.

This strategy is effective — yet it’s also methodical. Short completions and a balanced play-calling approach consume the clock, especially against an Alabama defense that excels in tackling in space and minimizing yards after the catch. Even if Indiana manages to advance the ball, it doesn’t ensure quick scoring opportunities.

Alabama’s defensive front remains robust against the run after contact, which may compel Indiana to engage in longer drives instead of making big plays. In a playoff atmosphere, where conservative decision-making and heightened situational awareness prevail, red-zone efficiency often declines — another element that favors the Under.

Both coaching staffs are acutely aware of what’s on the line. Anticipate fewer early fourth-down attempts, more punts around midfield, and a focus on field position. When you factor in the Rose Bowl environment, playoff jitters, and two defenses capable of generating negative plays, this total appears inflated.

A final score in the vicinity of 24–20 or 27–20 comfortably falls below 48.5. With Alabama likely aiming to shorten the game and Indiana willing to win in a methodical manner, the Under emerges as the most rational and sustainable betting strategy for making #9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana predictions.

How To Watch #9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana - CFB Playoffs

• Date: Thursday, January 1
• Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
• TV: ESPN

#9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

We’ve just shared our #9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana predictions. Now, let’s examine the most recent #9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana odds for this matchup from FanDuel Sportsbook:

• Money Line (ML): Crimson Tide +215 | Hoosiers -260
• Spread: Crimson Tide +7.5 (-125) | Hoosiers -7.5 (-102)
• Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -106 | U: -120)

#9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana Injury Report & Latest News

Alabama Injury Report

• D. Kirkpatrick Jr. (CB) – Out, Undisclosed
• J. Latham (LB) – Out, Neck
• J. Beaman (DL) – Out, Lower Body

Indiana Injury Report

• B. Franke (K) – Questionable, Undisclosed
• S. Daley (DL) – Out, Leg
• K. Wyatt (DL) – Out, Undisclosed
• B. Bonds (CB) – Out, Undisclosed
• L. Beebe Jr. (RB) – Out, Leg

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