#5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana Predictions, Picks & Odds: CFB Playoffs Semis, 1/9

The final ticket to the College Football Playoff National Championship is at stake this Friday night in Atlanta, and what once seemed impossible now appears inevitable: Indiana is just one victory away from competing for a title. The Hoosiers have transformed from a novelty act into a powerhouse, and now the onus is no longer on Curt Cignetti’s squad — it’s on anyone daring enough to bet against them.

Oregon boasts talent, speed, and is hitting its stride at the perfect moment. However, Indiana has already cracked this code once, achieving victory on the road in Eugene, and nothing we’ve observed since indicates that the Hoosiers have taken a step back. In fact, they seem to have sharpened their skills, maintained their composure, and become even more relentless as the stakes have risen – which is a main focus of our #5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana picks.

#5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana Predictions for the CFB Playoff Semis, Friday, 1/9

This Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl semifinal features two teams that have reached this point via very different journeys. Oregon is the heavyweight contender, filled with top-tier recruits and dynamic athletes. Indiana, on the other hand, is a well-oiled machine — disciplined, efficient, and thoroughly prepared.

The Ducks are seeking redemption after suffering a 30–20 defeat at home to Indiana back in October. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are on a quest for history, having already taken down Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and followed it up with a decisive win over Alabama. So, what do our #5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana predictions have in store?

#5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana Spread Pick: Hoosiers -3.5 (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Initially, Indiana was a seven-point underdog when these teams first faced off and managed to win by ten in one of the most challenging road environments in college football. Now, the Hoosiers are favored by a modest 3.5 points on neutral ground, boasting a resume that features victories over Oregon, Ohio State, and Alabama. Until Indiana provides bettors with a reason to reconsider, the best strategy is to stick with them.

The primary advantage in this matchup continues to be coaching and game management. Curt Cignetti has been impeccable in preparation all season, consistently placing his team in favorable situations on early downs, third downs, and in the red zone. Indiana avoids self-sabotage, remains calm under pressure, and stays true to its identity when the stakes rise.

This identity was evident in their first encounter. Oregon came into that game expecting to impose their will physically, particularly on the ground. Indiana turned the tables. The Hoosiers restricted Oregon to a mere 2.7 yards per carry and forced Dante Moore into two crucial interceptions, winning the turnover battle and managing the game flow despite modest offensive statistics.

Fernando Mendoza didn’t need to shine — and that’s the key. Indiana doesn’t rely on a star player. Mendoza makes the right decisions, distributes the ball effectively, and allows the offense's structure to function. When the situation calls for it, he has shown he can deliver — but he seldom puts the offense at risk.

While the Ducks may possess more raw talent, Indiana executes cleaner football. The Hoosiers excel on early downs, are more dependable on third and fourth downs, and have a notably stronger red-zone defense. These differences become even more pronounced in playoff games, particularly when both teams are well-acquainted with one another.

For Oregon to win, several things must align perfectly. The Ducks require Moore to manage pressure more effectively than he did in October, need explosive plays to occur against a secondary that seldom makes mistakes, and must finish drives against the nation’s top red-zone defense. This is a challenging task against a team that excels at forcing opponents to settle for less.

Indiana doesn’t have to dominate in statistics to cover this spread. It simply needs to continue doing what it has all season: control the tempo, avoid negative plays, win crucial downs, and trust that its preparation will pay off in the end. Considering what we’ve observed over the past four months — especially in the last three weeks — our #5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana predictions think this is a wager worth placing.

How To Watch #5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana - CFB Playoff Semis

• Date: Friday, January 9
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
• TV: ESPN

#5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

We’ve posted our #5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana predictions. Now, let’s take a look at the latest #5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana odds for this matchup from FanDuel Sportsbook:

• Money Line (ML): Ducks +164 | Hoosiers -196
• Spread: Ducks +3.5 (-104) | Hoosiers -3.5 (-122)
• Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -113 | U: -113)

#5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana Injury Report & Latest News

Oregon Injury Report

• J. Limar (RB) – Out, Undisclosed
• G. Wilson (OG) – Out, Undisclosed
• D. Riggs (RB) – Out, Undisclosed
• J. Lowe (WR) – Out, Undisclosed
• E. Stewart (WR) – Out, Knee
• K. Lopa (CB) – Out, Undisclosed
• D. Austin (CB) – Out, Undisclosed
• J. Davison (RB) – Out, Undisclosed
• K. Kasper (WR) – Out, Undisclosed
• B. Boulton (OG) – Out, Undisclosed

Indiana Injury Report

• B. Franke (K) – Out, Undisclosed
• S. Daley (DL) – Out, Leg
• K. Wyatt (DL) – Out, Undisclosed
• B. Bonds (CB) – Out, Undisclosed
• L. Beebe Jr. (RB) – Out, Leg

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