The 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship features one of the most surprising title matchups in recent times. Top-ranked Indiana, a team that had never achieved more than nine wins in a season until head coach Curt Cignetti took over, is now undefeated at 15-0 and just one victory away from legendary status.

On the other hand, #10 Miami, a storied program, is making its return to the sport’s biggest event for the first time in over 20 years. For the final time this season, we’ll get ready to lay out our #10 Miami vs. #1 Indiana picks!

#10 Miami vs. #1 Indiana Predictions for the CFB Championship, Monday, 1/19

Indiana’s ascent has been precise and relentless, founded on discipline, efficiency, and a defense that doesn’t allow opponents any easy chances. In contrast, Miami’s journey has been more dramatic, filled with controversy and toughness — yet the Hurricanes come into this one ready for battle, full of confidence, and dangerous as a seven-point underdog.

While this championship might ultimately go to Indiana, from a betting standpoint, Miami getting +7.5 points offers the real value when looking to make #10 Miami vs. #1 Indiana predictions.

 

 

 

#10 Miami vs. #1 Indiana Spread Pick: Hurricanes +7.5 (-105 at Novig)

It's tough to go against Indiana right now. The Hoosiers are undefeated, making no mistakes in the playoffs, and they’re playing with a confidence that feels almost unstoppable. However, betting isn't just about picking the winner — it’s about the odds, the matchup, and the margin. In this case, Miami +7.5 meets all those criteria.

Indiana has been very strong, but their success follows a specific pattern. The Hoosiers win by controlling the pace of the game, winning field position, converting on third downs, and taking advantage of their opponents' errors. 

What they haven't consistently done is dominate top-tier, tough teams that can withstand pressure in the trenches and put pressure on the quarterback without overcommitting. Miami fits that bill better than any team Indiana has played this season.

The Hurricanes have one of the most disruptive defensive lines in the nation. They rank high in sacks per game and can create pressure without needing to blitz. This is crucial against an Indiana offense that excels when Fernando Mendoza has time to make plays. 

Mendoza has been perfect when he’s protected, but Miami’s front seven can break down the pocket early and force Indiana to make quicker decisions than they like. This isn’t about completely shutting down Indiana — no one has managed that. It’s about providing enough resistance to keep the game close.

Miami's offense looks promising for an underdog role. Carson Beck provides the Hurricanes with a seasoned quarterback who has already triumphed in playoff games under pressure, including crucial late-game drives against Ole Miss and Ohio State. Miami doesn't need to be explosive on every drive; it just needs to stay on track, convert manageable third downs, and avoid the turnovers that Indiana thrives on.

That’s the risk, of course. Indiana doesn’t make mistakes. The Hoosiers have had no turnovers and very few penalties during the playoffs. Meanwhile, Miami has shown vulnerabilities at times when put in clear passing situations. 

But that’s why the Hurricanes will rely on their running game from the start. When teams have committed to running against Indiana — and remained patient — they’ve found the most success. Even Penn State, one of the few teams to genuinely challenge Indiana, followed that strategy.

There’s also a mental aspect to consider. Miami is playing with nothing to lose. Indiana is carrying the weight of history. National championship games often become tense in the final moments, especially when the underdog can still apply pressure in the fourth quarter. Miami’s defense is capable of forcing punts, and its offense has enough experience to keep up in scoring.

Indiana might pull ahead in the end. They might win by a touchdown. But expecting them to win by more than one possession against a tough Miami team seems like asking for too much. Our #10 Miami vs. #1 Indiana predictions will take the points with the Hurricanes.

 

 

 

How To Watch #10 Miami vs. #1 Indiana - CFB Championship

  • Date: Monday, January 19, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

#10 Miami vs. #1 Indiana Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

Novig has revealed the latest #10 Miami vs. #1 Indiana odds for the game, scheduled for Monday night. This information follows our previous #10 Miami vs. #1 Indiana predictions:

  • Money Line (ML): Hurricanes +285 | Hoosiers -288
  • Spread: Hurricanes +7.5 (-105) | Hoosiers -7.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: +104 | U: -107)

 

 

 

#10 Miami vs. #1 Indiana Injury Report & Latest News

Miami Injury Report

  • X. Lucas (CB) – Probable, Suspension
  • D. Upshaw (WR) – Out, Foot
  • E. Lofton (TE) – Out, Undisclosed
  • M. Bryant (LB) – Out, Undisclosed
  • C. McConathy II (DL) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • D. Brown (CB) – Questionable, Undisclosed

Indiana Injury Report

  • J. Boyd (CB) – Out, Undisclosed
  • B. Franke (K) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • S. Daley (DL) – Out, Leg
  • K. Wyatt (DL) – Out, Undisclosed
  • B. Bonds (CB) – Out, Undisclosed
  • L. Beebe Jr. (RB) – Out, Leg

 

 

 

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