What’s up, FA Nation?! The Sweet 16 gets underway tonight as March Madness and the 2022 NCAA Tournament roll on towards New Orleans! With four games on tap for Thursday evening, we have plenty of college basketball PrizePicks plays on the board. Let’s take a closer look and find some winners.
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OVER 4.5 Blks+Stls
Let’s start things off with a well-known player but an unconventional prop. If you’ve ever watched Chet Holmgren play basketball, you know he’s a blocks machine with a lanky 7-foot frame that towers over opposing teams in the paint. In fact, his 3.7 blocks per game are the fourth-best mark in the country this season. The Gonzaga center also has the arm length to steal a couple of passes every now and then. He’s averaging 4.2 blocks and 1.5 steals over the past ten games and has at least five combined blocks/steals in eight of the last 11 contests. Tonight, he faces an undersized Arkansas team that could struggle with Holmgren’s size and shot-blocking in the paint. The Razorbacks boast just one player above 6-foot-7 (center Jaylin Williams) and rank 146th in offensive block rate and 154th in steals rate nationally (per KenPom). It sets up well for Holmgren to rack up some blocks with a steal or two added in.
OVER 13.5 Points
Michigan is in the Sweet 16 in large part due to Eli Brooks’ elevated play. The senior has taken on a bigger offensive role over the past month and especially in the NCAA Tournament. He scored 16 and 23 points in the first two rounds and now has at least 14 points in five straight games. Brooks’ usage rate and shot volume have both increased lately with Wolverines’ point guard Devante’ Jones sidelined. Though Jones may play tonight, expect Brooks to continue in his elevated offensive role since the team is rolling. After having success vs. Tennessee’s top-tier defense last game, Brooks should keep it going in a slightly easier matchup vs. Villanova.
OVER 2.0 Assists
Although he only had one assist last game, Kevin McCullar’s projection for two dimes tonight seems a tad too low. The senior is one of Texas Tech’s main ball-handlers in a point-forward role, and now he’ll get a slight pace-boost here vs. Duke. He’s averaging 3.1 assists per game this season overall and 2.4 dimes in the past ten outings. McCullar also has more than two assists in four of the last five games as he’s back in his regular starting role after missing some time recently due to injury. It’s hard to imagine him not getting three assists in this matchup as one of Tech’s offensive catalysts.
OVER 23.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
Remember Kyler Edwards from Texas Tech’s Final Four run in 2019 when he was just a freshman role player? Well, now Edwards is one of Houston’s top playmakers and he’s playing at a high level with his team in the Sweet 16. He has 25 and 15 points scored in the first two rounds with 35 and 25 combined points/rebounds/assists in those games, respectively. Edwards is now averaging 24.8 PRA over the past ten games and has gone over this 23.5 projection in four straight games and five of the last six. Now he and the Houston offense get a pace-boost vs. Arizona, which will naturally raise Edwards’ stats.
UNDER 15.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
As much as we love Kerr Kriisa’s talent and energy, it’s impossible to ignore his recent injury and how it’s affecting his play. The Arizona freshman suffered a horrible ankle injury in the Pac-12 Tournament, missed three games, and then made his return to the court in the Round-of-32 vs. TCU. In 27 minutes off the bench, he shot just 1-for-10 from the field with a final stat line of three points, two rebounds and one assist. Who knows how his ankle is feeling today, but it’s clear Kriisa may have rushed back a little too early. If he’s not a legit threat from three-point range, Kriisa’s 15.5 projection for combined points/rebounds/assists is way too high. Even when healthy, he went under 15.5 PRA in eight of the previous 11 games. Tonight he has to face a top-tier Houston defense that’s among the best in the country at defending the three-point line – which will limit Kriisa’s effectiveness even more.
Others to Consider:
- Kevin Obanor (Texas Tech) – OVER 17.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
- Mark Williams (Duke) – UNDER 21.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
- Hunter Dickinson (Michigan) – OVER 4.5 Free Throws Made
Looking for more college basketball content? Check out the CBB DFS Playbook for tonight's Sweet 16 action! Plus, check out all of Dan Servodidio's March Madness team breakdowns & Sweet 16 betting picks from Pickswise!