The 2026 NCAA Tournament rolls into the Sweet 16. We have 4 more games on tap for Friday, March 27th, as the March Madness bracket continues. Let’s dive into our College Basketball Sweet 16 Best Bets Today. Note that all odds and betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but are always subject to change. Good luck with these college basketball picks!

College Basketball Sweet 16 Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 3/27

Our NCAA Tournament college basketball Sweet 16 best bets today begin with No. 1 seed Duke taking on No. 5 seed St. John’s. Which team will punch their ticket to the Elite Eight? Plus, our college basketball picks feature Alabama vs. Michigan in the Midwest region of the March Madness bracket. Check out even more college basketball predictions below for the other games on Friday. Best of luck with our college basketball Sweet 16 best bets today. 

 

 

 

St. John’s vs. Duke Prediction: Friday, 3/27

Friday night’s Sweet 16 slate gets going with Duke facing St. John’s in Washington, D.C. This should be an intense and entertaining matchup as the No. 1 seed Blue Devils try to hold off Rick Pitino and the No. 5 seed Red Storm. Let’s break down how to bet on this showdown. 

Grabbing the points with St. John’s is very tempting. Pitino has an excellent ATS record in the NCAA Tournament as an underdog, and the Johnnies are very live to win this game outright. I may end up doing that, anyway. Instead, though, let’s target the total for our best bet as the defenses anchor a lower-scoring contest. 

We know both teams will bring it on the defensive end. Duke boasts the top-ranked defensive efficiency in the country (per KenPom), while allowing just 63.1 PPG this season. St. John’s is 8th in defense and allows 69.4 PPG. 

St. John’s is at its best offensively when attacking the paint, scoring inside, and getting to the foul line. The Johnnies also love to score in transition and bank on second-chance buckets. Well, Duke is strong defensively in each area. The Blue Devils limit fast-break opportunities at a high rate, rank 9th nationally in defensive rebounding rate, and allow the 2nd-fewest free-throw attempts per game. They also own a top-15 two-point defense in the country. 

Duke’s elite defense could easily lead to multiple scoreless stretches and empty possessions for St. John’s, especially in its half-court sets. The Johnnies are a poor three-point shooting team and don’t get consistent scoring, outside of Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins. Speaking of Ejiofor, he won’t dominate the paint as easily against the Blue Devils’ frontcourt trio of Cameron Boozer, Patrick Ngongba, and Maliq Brown. Getting Ngonga back last weekend was particularly huge for the interior defense. 

On the other end, St. John’s should show up defensively to frustrate and slow down Duke’s offense. The Red Storm play a physical style of defense and won’t shy away from trying to bully Boozer or just get the Blue Devils out of a rhythm. 

Pitino’s patented press defense can also be a difference-maker. St. John’s will look to pressure Duke’s ball-handlers to force turnovers and make them work harder to get into their offensive sets. The Blue Devils are prone to turnovers, and the loss of point guard Caleb Foster hurts. There’s apparently an outside chance of Foster returning for this game, but it doesn’t seem too likely. If he does play, he presumably won’t be at full strength after recently undergoing foot surgery. 

All in all, both offenses could be held in check with a pair of top-10 defenses dictating the game. Again, taking St. John’s to cover should be considered as well. For our best bet, grab the under. Notably, the under has cashed in 10 of 13 NCAA Tournament games for Duke under Jon Scheyer. Plus, the under is 12-3 in the Blue Devils’ non-conference games this season. Furthermore, the under is a combined 46-26 this year (64%) for Duke and St. John’s. 

Alabama vs. Michigan Prediction: Friday, 3/27

In the Midwest region of the bracket, we get No. 1 seed Michigan against No. 4 seed Alabama on Friday night. The Wolverines are the betting favorites to win the national title, along with Arizona, and they should get past the Crimson Tide easily in this Sweet 16 matchup. Let’s break down why backing Michigan against the spread is the way to go. 

Alabama reeled off comfortable wins in both of the first two rounds. The Tide won by 20 over Hofstra and then dominated Texas Tech by 25 points in the Round of 32. As impressive as those victories were, though, it’s now a big step up in competition against an elite Michigan squad. 

The Wolverines boast the 2nd-best defense and the 6th-best offense in the country, per KenPom. They’ve rolled in the NCAA Tournament as well, beating both Howard and Saint Louis by 20+ points. Michigan is now 33-3 on the season overall and looks poised to continue its run on Friday, with multiple mismatches in its favor. 

On one end, it’s hard to envision Alabama getting many stops on defense. The Crimson Tide rank 60th nationally in defensive efficiency, which was the worst of any Sweet 16 team. They also rarely force turnovers, ranking 358th nationally in that area, and struggle on the defensive glass (287th). 

Bama’s defensive issues didn’t come into play against Hofstra and Texas Tech in the first two rounds. However, the Tide benefited from facing a slow-paced CAA team and a Red Raiders squad that clearly missed All-American J.T. Toppin. Before the NCAA tournament, Alabama allowed 86.8 PPG over its previous 12 games. 

Michigan’s offense can exploit many of Alabama’s defensive woes. The Wolverines score efficiently inside and can dominate the offensive boards. Plus, they’re shooting 36.6% from three-point range this season (36th in Division I). It also helps that Michigan likes to play fast (22nd in pace), which is exactly the style of game dictated by Alabama (4th in pace). 

Meanwhile, Alabama’s only hope to keep it close is by making a ton of three-pointers. The Tide lead the country in three-point attempts rate, and they just shot 19-for-42 (45%) from deep in the latest win over Texas Tech. However, negative regression is likely to come in that area. Michigan is holding opponents to just 30.8% from three (30th nationally). 

If those threes aren’t falling for Bama, it could be a long night for the offense. The Wolverines protect the paint at an elite level. They rank 4th in the country in two-point defense, 3rd in block rate, and 15th in free-throw attempts allowed. Michigan is also great at defensive rebounding to limit second-chance points. 

We also have to factor in Alabama playing without point guard Aden Holloway. His absence didn’t factor into the game against Texas Tech because it was over by halftime. In this matchup with Michigan’s elite defense, though, missing Holloway’s ball-handling and shot-making will be more glaring. Labaron Philon is great, but the Wolverines will have answers to slow him down. 

Finally, Alabama’s struggles against top competition cannot be ignored. The Crimson Tide have faced a top-10 KenPom defense four times this season, going 1-3 in those games. The only win came against St. John’s back in November, and the three losses were all by double digits. They lost by 23 points to Florida, by 21 to Arizona, and by 10 to Gonzaga. They also had Holloway for all those matchups. 

 

 

 

Best College Basketball Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 3/27

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