In an effort to discern and evaluate how relievers fare in the highest leverage moments, Matt Selz and I collaborated on an algorithm using the leverage metrics featured on Fangraphs within an equation using strikeouts, walks and overall performance to rate them on a weekly basis. Hence, this article introduces a new way for the Fantasy Alarm family to evaluate relievers and know who to potentially speculate upon for saves or to use as pitchers to protect precious ratio statistics.
Within the rating system, the shutdown and meltdown numbers become factors for relievers from the win probability numbers on Fangraphs:
Then, Matt also incorporated the Wpa (total win probability) amassed in all outings during the season, the RE24 which measures run prevention and assigns a value to every base runners-out state where 24 exist and in which a higher value means they have been better at not allowing runners to score. Plus, it also uses WPA/pLi which accounts for each at-bat affecting win probability divided by the leverage of the situation. More clean innings in this metric lead to a higher number and more effective a reliever proves to be.
With all of this encapsulated in a formula, the Reliever Efficiency Rate spawned. In order to measure its effectiveness, Matt ran 2018’s data among qualified relievers with no surprises at the top of the ranking with Blake Treinen and Edwin Díaz leading the way. There’s no way to know if the metric will be predictive on a season-to-season basis, but as it evolves weekly, it holds up within a season to this point. In an effort to let it marinate, Fantasy Alarm did not release it until this week. Here’s a glimpse of what it looks like:
It will be curious, but not surprising to see some of the relievers within this week’s top 10:
Ryan Pressly , Houston
Brad Hand , Cleveland
Josh Hader , Milwaukee
Kirby Yates , San Diego
Roberto Osuna , Houston
John Gant , St. Louis
Brandon Workman , Boston
Giovanny Gallegos , St. Louis
Scott Oberg , Colorado
Will Smith , San Francisco
Two of the top five relievers, virtually all season, reside on the Astros roster. Both Pressly and Osuna have never dropped below fifth in any week this year with last week’s number five spot representing the low water mark for either pitcher. Brad Hand riding the wave of 20 straight saves and a dominating last 12 games during which he’s not given up an earned run with a 0.62 WHIP in 13 innings while racking up 21 strikeouts versus three walks.
Kirby Yates started the metric at spot number 28 but keeps moving up weekly landing at fourth in the latest installment. He’s converted all 25 save chances this year along with his last 32 save chances dating back to August 28th of last year. His last 43 innings yields a 1.47 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 36.6 strikeouts minus walks percentage and 72:12 K:BB for the Padres.
Potential trade chip Will Smith secured the last spot in the top-10 last week and notched his 19th save in a row on Monday night against the Dodgers. Smith’s appeared in seven of the Giants last 10 contests with six saves. Dating back to when he assumed the closer role, Smith’s converted 33 of 36 save chances over his last 59.2 innings with a 2.86 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 30.6 strikeouts minus walks percentage and 84:15 K:BB. Plus, his saves against the Brewers and Dodgers should enhance his trade stock.
Flying below the radar, Giovanny Gallegos and John Gant of the Cardinals. Yes, Jordan Hicks and his explosive fastball garner most of the attention since he gets the majority of saves and Carlos Martínez can fill in when needed, but Gallegos and Gant provide the bridge for save chances. Gallegos has recorded a strikeout in 23 of his 27 outings this year with multiple strikeouts in 17 of them. He’s been unscored upon his last nine appearances spanning 12 innings since May 26th and Gallegos’ stranded 19 of 21 inherited runners this season. Gant’s been the spackle in this bullpen filling in wherever needed with six wins, three saves and 10 holds.
Also pitching well of late, Liam Hendriks of the A’s. He notched his sixth hold on Monday and been scoreless in 18 of his last 19 appearances as a reliever. This does not account for the two earned runs allowed as an opener on May 29th but it does get absorbed in his last 22.1 innings during which Hendriks owns a 1.21 ERA with 28 strikeouts against nine walks with a 1.07 WHIP and .192 batting average against.
For those worried about the health of Wade Davis , note where Scott Oberg appears above and do not cut bait just yet. Oblique injuries can be tricky, so try to avoid an itchy trigger finger with the Rockies playing better of late and potentially needing Oberg to get saves if necessary. For as tough as it can be to predict a Red Sox save, Brandon Workman places in this metric’s top-10, so, he could get a handful of chances before the All-Star break. Stay tuned.
Due to the metric running off of qualified relievers, Matt and I will work on incorporating pitchers weekly going forward so names like Aaron Bummer , Anthony Swarzak , and others do not fall between the cracks. Also, if interested, tracking bulk relievers such as Jalen Beeks or Félix Peña will also be available to determine who to add for spot starts working behind an opener.
There’s no perfect way to measure a reliever, but this metric tries to remove the noise and the never-ending chasing of saves to determine which relievers pitch the best in high leverage moments for their teams. If curious as to why teams will be circling the Giants bullpen at the trade deadline, just take a look at the chart.
Be on the lookout for weekly updates of the Reliever Efficiency Rate. Just another way for Fantasy Alarm to keep its family ahead of the competition.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com