DFS NASCAR: Hollywood Casino 400 Playbook

Harvick won here in May and did it pretty solidly with leading 70+ laps and this week he looks to be in similar form once again. His short run speed may not be top of the board but his long run speed most certainly is. In the final practice he ran two 15-lap runs and both were at the top of the charts overall. He starts on the outside pole and has won twice here in the last four races. There really is no downside here except the price on both sites and makes for a good play in either format.

Busch is part of the big three that has not only dominated 1.5-mile tracks in general the last two years but also Kansas in particular with the three combining for the last five wins here and Busch has one of those. Overall he and Harvick are the only two in the field with five-straight top-10s and he has seven in the last nine trips here. The 240 laps led in that span doesn’t hurt his cause either. Starting P7 and having the second fastest car in short run and long speeds all week, raises his upside as well. Expect him to be at or near the front most of the race with a chance to lead the second most laps behind Harvick. Trying to pair the two will be expensive though so cheap plays will have to be played.

Larson loves Kansas. He’s on record saying it’s his favorite track on the schedule and the driving style needed here fits his preferred his style as well. He has one top-five, two top-10s, and 101 laps led in the last five races here with an average finish of 22.8. The average finish would ordinarily lend him more to GPP lineups but this week, like in May, he will start from the back after going to a backup car following Friday’s practice. His starting spot of P27 will have to be eclipsed before he gets positive position points but that shouldn’t be hard. He accomplished the same thing in May and led 101 laps before finishing fourth. That’s safe cash game upside and cheaper than Harvick but quite a bit on FD.

Truex has been the guy to beat at Kansas in the last two and a half years with two wins, three top-fives, three top-10s, 380 laps led, and 222 fastest laps in that span. Only Harvick has more top-fives and Busch and Harvick are the only ones that have more top-10s. The laps led and fastest laps are the best in the field and is 120.4 rating is second. Starting P12 and running pretty quick in long run speed in practice gives him very nice upside. He is currently on the right side of the cut line by 18 points so as long as he moves up and has a solid finish, he’ll be moving on to the Round of 8. His price discount from Harvick on DK is very surprising and makes him a more budget-friendly play for cash and GPP games.

Keselowski feels as though he’s in a must-win situation as he sits ninth in the standings and 18 points behind Martin Truex and 21 behind Clint Bowyer in seventh. He has pulled off a win in a similar scenario in 2014 when he won at Talladega in a cutoff race. However he hasn’t quite done as well here with one top-five, two top-10s, and four top-15s in the last five races with 22 laps led and 45 fastest laps. In interviews during practice he has stated that he feels the 2-car is very fast this week and that he has the car to get out of tough spots through the course of the race. Starting fifth unfortunately mutes his upside a bit since he’s got other fast cars up there but the price is solid on both sites.

Chase is safe this week once more after his win at Dover two weeks ago, that doesn’t mean he won’t be aggressively going after stage points and stage wins to try and boost his spot in the standings at the start of the Round of 8. Chase has similar stats to Keselowski with one fewer top-15 finish and 18 less laps led in the last five races. So the price reduction for a guy that has shown slightly better speed all week than Brad is nice on both sites and his starting position gives more PD upside across the board for the 9-car. The risk here comes in that he usually starts about where he is on Sunday but has the average finish of P17.

This is Bowyer’s home track but you wouldn’t know it from his performance here with just one top-10 in the last 10 trips to the track. However he is clearly having a much better year than those past years represent. Even with that lack of top-10s he still has a very good +9.6 PD mark in the last five races. Bowyer will start P14 on Sunday but ran long run speeds better than that and already knows how to move up at this track. He might feel comfortable being +21 points over the cutoff but Brad starts nine spots higher which makes him only 12 points to the good to start. Either lineup works here.

Jones has shown good speed here this week by running the fastest overall lap average in the second practice and the second best overall average in the happy hour session. Jones has consistently shown speed here in practice but in the three career Cup races here he has just one top-20 finish which was a top-10 but still that’s not terribly comforting given his starting spot. The problem is that he seems to be the one to run into trouble despite having great speed. The price is a bit high for the upside possibility here but the speed is worth mentioning him.

Kurt was a bit salty after running out of gas at the end of last week’s race after leading the most laps but he’s still pretty safe over the cut off line and is now at a track he’s good at. Two top-fives, and three top-10s in the last five races and an average finish of 9.0 all point to his skill here. The mid-tier price on DK is also a nice relief from some others above him on the salary list. He ran the third fastest 10-lap average in the final practice and the fastest single lap in that session too. The P11 starting spot should lock him into a potential top-five finish but aside from the PD bonus and the solid finish spot points I don’t see much more for him but that’s still a good 40+ point day.

Blaney considers this track to be his best track on the schedule and his history here doesn’t disprove that one bit. In five career Cup races here he has three top-fives, three top-10s, and 140 laps led and was running very well here in May until a collision with Kyle Larson ended his day early. He ran inside the top-eight in single lap speeds all week and inside the top-five in overall lap averages in both Saturday practices. There is a shot he leads a decent amount of laps but overall I don’t see him dominating and therefore his upside is decent but not great out of the fourth spot in the grid.

Logano is the pole sitter this weekend but he himself described his speed as good but not great. The lap times have shown that as well with middling single-lap speed and overall lap averages in the 6-7 range. Logano has an average start of 9.6 here and a finish of 20.4 in the last five with two top-fives and nothing else inside the top-20. His 11 laps led are hard to trust too. He is the first true GPP only play this week.

Almirola is now safe and into the Round of 8 so he may be playing with house money even more at this point. That hasn’t stopped them from showing speed again this week with the best and second best single laps in the Saturday practices and the third best 10-lap average in happy hour. Almirola has two top-10 finishes in his last five races here which doesn’t stand out but again he’s in better equipment this year and he had a strong run in May as well. Starting third means he needs to score a second straight win and lead a bunch of laps to maximize his value but the price on DK is very good.

Bowman is still alive in the playoffs but holding on by a thread and needing a win and only a win to advance and continue his season. Bowman has two Cup races under his belt at Kansas and one of those was a top-10 finish and he has an average finish of 12.5 as well. Bowman this week has shown top-10 speed in both single lap speeds and overall lap average in the first Saturday practice. Last week was a disappointing showing for the 88-team at track they usually do well at and thus he needs the win this week. It will be a tough task to get it but he has the speed to finish in the top-10.

Menard is coming off a very good finish last week after driving in the top-five for a big chunk of the day. The 21-Ford of the Wood Brothers has been finding speed the last few weeks and now it’s starting to show with him running faster than his qualifying spot at practice this week. Menard has one top-10 in the last five races here but he has been in other cars most of that time. Also keep in mind that Ryan Blaney did a bunch of his damage here in the same car that Menard is driving now. At mid-tier price on both sides he gives nice upside possibility out of the 18th starting spot in the grid.

Dillon is at one of his better tracks this week with two top-10s and three top-15s in the last five races and his 11.6 average finish is pretty solid too. His starting spot of 23rd is a bit worse than where he ran in single-lap and 10-lap averages at practice and his PD mark of +3.4 shows he can move up a bit at this track. There is nothing on the line for Dillon aside from the normal reasons to try and win a race but his price and solid upside come in handy as salary relief on DK.

Ragan is a guy that has posted a top-15 and three top-20s here in the last five races with an average PD mark of +6.2 after starting on average at 28.6 (about where he starts on Sunday). He is here strictly for the position differential ability he’s shown and the fact that he’s shown slightly better speed than his starting spot while being less than $6K on both sites. A cheap add-on with upside is what he is.

McDowell is in the same boat as Ragan with basically the same stats just a slightly better position differential mark at +9.8 in the last five races. I would have liked him a bit more if he qualified a few spots further back but it is what it is. He’s run about here in practice which isn’t terrible and so again he’s a budget-friendly play with some upside.

You’ve heard me say this before but I usually don’t go this far down the salary list but this week with the cream of the crop taking so much salary, Sorenson will come in handy on both sites. His PD in the last five races of +7.8 is what you’re paying for. His speed wasn’t anything to write home about but it hasn’t been here previously either and he still manages to move through the field.