2019 NFL Draft Guide: Navigating ADP
Published: Jul 18, 2019, 9:50 PM EDT
We already discussed how to draft in tiers with the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide article, Drafting by Tiers, but a strategy that works in conjunction with drafting by tiers and was mentioned a lot in that article was how to properly assess the ADP of a player when drafting. Navigating ADP isn’t as easy as it seems and it’s why I preach to everybody that you really need to mock draft so you get a feel of not only how your strategies may work in a draft but also how other fantasy players feel about the same players you are looking to target. Let’s dive in shall we?
What is ADP?
This is probably a good place to start eh? What exactly is ADP? What does it mean? Well, it stands for Average Draft Position. Through player rankings and tons of drafts we find the average draft spot for each player. Projections will largely dictate the players ADP as those projected to score the most fantasy points will tend to go higher in drafts with slight variance and so on down the line. Understanding ADP will not only help you identify how the rest of the fantasy world is looking at a player but will also help you formulate your draft strategy.
Have a Game Plan
Make sure you have a game plan going into your draft. I can’t stress this enough honestly. Having an idea of how you want to build your roster will help when the inevitable player snipe happens or maybe a player that is too good to pass up and you need to change. Having that initial strategy for your roster build should help you confidently make decisions while drafting.
Be Ready to Adjust
A key reason for needing a game plan is because you will more than likely find yourself needing to adjust that strategy. Understanding the ADP of a draft will help you determine if this current run of running backs will force your hand into reaching for a running back a round or so early so you don’t miss out or if you can take advantage of the running back scramble to snag an overlooked receiver at a great value. Again, understand the player tiers will be a huge help here when figuring out how to draft with the ADP.
Who You Want, When you Want
It seems that there is a stigma around the idea of “reaching” in a fantasy draft. As if it was a bad pick by the owner because they took the player earlier than the other owners may have considered. While the title of this section a little bit in jest, it’s also not completely wrong. If you have done your research and find that a player is better than the rest of the players at this current tier then don’t be shy about drafting your guy. Why risk taking a player that you find to be of lesser value and hope the player you covet is still there after giving your another run of picks to snag him? For example, say you find yourself in the third round and need a wide receiver. The players on the board are Kenny Golladay (45), Cooper Kupp (48) and Chris Godwin (51) and none of those players really appeal to you, however you are a big believer in Mike Williams (59) this year and while ADP of 59 is higher than the players listed, if you feel he has upside there is no reason not to take him now so you don’t lose out on him if you wait for your next pick where his ADP may fall more in line. Sure, you may get jeered a bit, but there is also no better feeling than taking a player off someone draft queue because they weren’t willing to make the move to take the guy they wanted.
Mock it Out
Maybe you have heard but in case you haven’t the Mock Draft Army is back! Listen, there is just no better way to prepare for your fantasy draft than to participate in mock drafts. You can do all the research you want, create all the cheat sheets and read every article in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide but the fact is that unless you have practiced your game plan you have no idea what will and won’t work. Mock drafting will give you a huge understanding of ADP and how the fantasy community feels about certain players as we often see plus they do say practice makes perfect and the Mock Draft Army will certainly help you formulate that perfect draft strategy.