2021 NFL Draft Guide: Handcuff Report

The NFL is ever evolving and with that evolution to game has come the evolution on how teams view and use certain positions to fit their game plan. In the early days the teams running back was the teams running back, sure there was always the guy who was better catching the football but it was rare to see such rotations used. Nowadays you have the teams starting running back, a change of pace back, a third down back and more that cycle through. When it comes to fantasy football it is important to recognize which players are strictly handcuffs, meaning players who only have true value in case of an injury to the starter and a player with stand alone value in their teams offense. Let's go ahead and take a look at the notable backfields to watch for the upcoming season.

UPDATED 7.20.21

Los Angeles Rams

It didn't take long for the first big injury to hit the NFL this offseason with Cam Akers suffering a torn achilles during a workout. Akers was set to be the clear lead running back this season in the “revamped” Rams offense now lead by Matthew Stafford.  After a slow start to his rookie year we saw Akers exploded down the stretch and he was primed to be a borderline first round pick in fantasy this season. With the injury we now see Darrell Henderson move into the lead back role for the time being. Henderson had a tough rookie season but looked much better in 2020 and showed real gains in the teams passing offense. With little tested depth behind Henderson, that includes names like Xavier Jones, Raymond Calais and Otis Anderson, he becomes the must own back from this backfield until the Rams eventually sign a veteran running back which could range from a Todd Gurley return, Adrian Peterson reuniting with Matthew Stafford or someone like Le'Veon Bell who are all still on the market.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals entered last season with Kenyan Drake as their starter but decided to let him walk away in free agency this offseason. In turn the expectation is that Chase Edmonds will be the starting back for Arizona to at least begin the season. Edmonds last year averaged 4.6 yards per carry while rushing for 448 yards and a score while adding 53 catches on 67 targets for 402 yards and four receiving touchdowns.  His competition this season comes by the way of former Steeler James Conner. Conner has struggled with injury and inconsistent performances over the past two seasons. That said, he has been an efficient red zone runner and as Andrew Cooper pointed out in his Stats To Know feature, Edmonds has just ONE carry inside the five yard line in his career. Edmonds may be the feature back and have that third down role on lock but Conner could be the guy scoring the touchdowns. 

Atlanta Falcons

Last season the Falcons signed Todd Gurley to be their replacement for Devonta Freeman as he joined a running back room that had Brian Hill and Ito Smith. Gurley again struggled, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry but he did rush for nine touchdowns. This season brings a new head coach and new offensive coordinator to Atlanta and one that comes from a Titans offense that built their team around running the football. Insert Mike Davis. Davis was signed to replace Todd Gurley as the Falcons lead back this season. Davis had a solid run in Carolina last season after Christian McCaffrey went down with his leg injury, totaling 642 yards and six touchdowns on the ground while adding 59 catches on 70 targets for 373 yards and two more scores. Davis averaged just 3.9 yards per carry so there is definitely room for improvement there but given that the running back group behind Davis consists of just gadget player Cordarrelle Patterson and Qadree Ollison, it seems like Davis is going to get the all the volume he can handle here.

Cleveland Browns

This backfield is the classic example of a running back having their own individual value in an offense instead of being viewed as a traditional handcuff to the starter. Kareem Hunt does not need Nick Chubb to get hurt to be a valuable asset to your fantasy football roster. Over the first three weeks of the 2020 season, prior to Chubb's injury, Hunt averaging 82 total yards and nearly three catches on four targets per game. In PPR that averages out to be about 10-to-11 fantasy points give or take the rounding. We then saw Chubb get injured and Hunt increased that production to a tick over 90 total yards per game. Hunt has elite upside given the offense, and the role he fills when Chubb is out of the lineup but his ability to give you 10+ fantasy points in PPR even when Chubb is healthy is what separates him from someone line Alexander Mattison who is viewed as an elite handcuff incase Dalvin Cook gets injured but otherwise burns a hole in your bench as he has no other role to get him on the field if Cook is healthy.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos let Phillip Lindsay leave in free agency this offseason then went and traded up to draft North Carolina bruiser Javonte Williams in the second round. This draft capital investment is immediately has many expecting Williams to overtake Melvin Gordon as the leading running back to begin the season. Now, Gordon is a free agent at the end of this season and is only owed 4.5 million dollars on his deal so it conceivable that the Broncos just decide to move on from Gordon before the season begins but that feels like too bold of a move. Gordon was very good last season for Denver, rushing for 986 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. He also added 32 receptions showing his continued effectiveness in the passing game. It would seem surprising that a rookie would step in and replace an incumbent that is coming off such a good year. I also see Gordon's impact in the passing game as a potential positive for his future here regardless. IF Williams does take the starting gig, one would assume that Gordon will remain as a change of pace and pass catching option. It's also not uncommon for rookie running backs to get a slow start out of the gate, heck, A.J. Dillon was a second round pick last season and he never saw the field until the final weeks while Cam Akers, D'Andre Swift and J.K. Dobbins frustrated fantasy owners with their initial playing time as well. Jonathan Taylor was on his way to a similar situation if not for the Week 1 injury to Marlon Mack but even then at times we saw Jordan Wilkins cut into the workload. I am buying into Melvin Gordon here until I see a reason to think otherwise.

Houston Texans

Looking at this depth chart honestly gives me the shivers. I was all in on David Johnson last year but injuries again took their toll as he appeared in just 12 games. During those 12 games he did average 4.7 yards per carry and added 33 catches for 314 yards so not all was lost but a cloud looms over Houston heading into the season. The off the field issues with Watson is making it look like TyRod Taylor is going to be the QB. This is not a team that figures to win many games if that ends up being the case but when Taylor was the starting QB for the Bills he loved targeting LeSean McCoy out of the backfield. David Johnson's per 16 game averages last season had him totaling 1300+ yards with 33 catches and 11 total touchdowns. If he can stay healthy, he may be a favorite of Taylor's this season. Phillip Lindsay is the back to look at later in your drafts as he is just a year removed from back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons with Denver and also has the ability to catch the football. IF David Johnson again misses time, he is the back to draft.

Jacksonville Jaguars

This feels like an absolute wild card situation as we have a brand new NFL head coach in Urban Meyer who took Clemson's Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick in the draft and then went and drafted Clemson's starting running back later in the first round as well in Travis Etienne. Last year the Jaguars running situation was thrown into turmoil with the late release of Leonard Fournette which paved the way for the undrafted James Robinson to take the job and rush for 1,070 yards and eight scores while catching 49 passes for 344 yards and three more touchdowns. All reports from sources around the team are that Robinson will remain the lead back and that Etienne is working with the receiving group. IF Etienne is going to be the pass catching back then that is going to hurt Robinson's overall value…I am also skeptical of the new head coach using a first round pick on a running back and not giving him the job over the undrafted free agent who was a nice story last season for the worst team in football.

Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs had a great rookie season that was unfortunately saw him miss a few games due to injury but still he managed to rush for 1,150 yards, seven  touchdowns while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Heading into his sophomore season there was a lot of hype surrounding Jacobs as he talked up his expected involvement in the teams passing attack. Jacobs did see an increase in usage in the passing game as he caught 33 passes on 45 targets but in 15 games he ran for less yards (1,065) and averaged almost a full yard per carry less (3.9). The touchdown saved fantasy owners for a complete disaster of an investment as he rushed for 12 scores but now the running back situation in Las Vegas is about to get a bit murkier as we head in 2021. This offseason the Raiders signed Kenyan Drake but they didn't just sign Drake, they gave him the most money of any free agent running back. Drake is a great pass catcher so one as to assume that Jacobs is losing that role be he also rushed for 955 yards and 10 touchdowns with the Cardinals last season. Drake, much like Kareem Hunt, feels like a player that is capable of holding his own fantasy value this season and was not signed as someone that will just be filling in for Jacobs when he needs a breather. 

New York Jets

A lot of people are looking at the Jets drafting of North Carolina running back Michael Carter in the fourth round as as the guy to draft this year if looking to own a Jets running back. Listen, we all like the shiny new toy, especially one drafted by a new head coach and offensive coordinator. My skepticism here comes into play solely with the type of running back that Carter is and the system we are expecting to be brought over from San Francisco by Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur which figures to be a committee back approach. The Jets also went and signed Tevin Coleman this offseason who spent that last two years IN San Francisco with Saleh and LaFleur. There is also Ty Johnson who had a strong finish to 2020 and has therefore popped on the radar of many. Listen, the Jets are not expected to be great this season with a rookie head coach and rookie quarterback but we should also figure they plan to run the ball a lot to help Zach Wilson. Tevin Coleman has had his injury issues for sure, but he should be viewed as the lead back of this group heading into camp with Johnson and Carter battling it out for the change of pace and passing down work.

San Francisco 49ers

Speaking of the 49ers, their running back group  may have lost Jerrick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman this offseason but both were always injured so the impact is minimal. The big add here was the third round investment in Ohio State running back Trey Sermon who the 49ers traded up to draft. Jeff Wilson Jr. is already injured and not expected back until the middle of the season. Raheem Mostert is slated to be the starter but injuries have long plagued him as well. Mostert is the initial back to own here but Sermon brings a lot of intrigue given his explosive play at Ohio State towards the end of the college football season. Those in very deep leagues may want to even take a stab at Wayne Gallman who had solid run at the end of last season for the Giants.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

All last offseason we heard from Bruce Arians that Ronald Jones was going to be the starting running back. Even after they signed Leonard Fournette we were told that Ronald Jones was going to be the starting running back and you know what? He was telling the truth, as Jones lead the team with 192 rushing attempts for 978 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.1 yards per carry.  Fournette lead the group with 36 catches on 47 targets while adding 367 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. When the playoffs hit we saw an injury take down Jones and Fournette was a monster. The team added Giovani Bernard in free agency and I think that signing should not be overlooked when it comes to the third down role which means the snap share between Jones and Fournette could be tighter. Bruce Arians has said he will play the hot hand, that is tough for fantasy players to gauge. I lean Jones of the group but Fournette isn't going to be going away.