For what it’s worth I highly doubt NASCAR gets this race in on Saturday. The weather forecast calls for rain and lightning for most of the afternoon and remember if NASCAR loses the track it takes about three hours to dry. The forecast is a little more promising on Saturday than it was Friday night so there’s a chance they race. Alas, here we are for this weekend’s DFS action.
I’m not shy about how I feel toward superspeedway races. If you’re there in person it’s incredibly exciting. The track is massive and the speed at which the cars go around the track is phenomenal to see in person. However, for DFS these races can be a nightmare. Even more so at the Truck or Xfinity level because the quality of driving is depressed a little bit and we see more cautions. That among other reasons is why I just don’t like these races for DFS. You probably heard my rant on this week’s podcast so I won’t bore you with a transcribed version.
Nobody is off the table for today’s race. Even the back-markers have a realistic shot at returning value today if they move up the field by passing drivers that wreck out. We only have 113 laps for this race so that means we have 79.1 dominator points. They don’t matter as much since fastest laps are evenly distributed among the field. Consider yourself fortunate if you land on the laps led dominator and they manage to finish the race in the top ten. But with fewer dominator points available, you don’t need to be loading up on guys starting in the top 20. Try and look at one-to-three drivers in the top 15-20 and then look at drivers outside the top 20-30. Don’t hesitate to leave money on the table as well. Daytona and Talladega are the tracks we can feel comfortable not using all the salary. All drivers are in play today so if you ask why one isn’t appearing in the Playbook, just know I’m not ruling anyone out. And as always, if you ask about a lineup in the NASCAR chat, it’s awfully hard for me to shoot one down unless it’s very heavy on drivers starting toward the front (but I will touch on these kinds of lineups at the very end of the article if a clean race is run). Best of luck today, although I highly doubt we see any racing this afternoon…
Drivers To Consider (Although Everyone’s Worth Considering)
A.J. Allmendinger ($10,600; Starting P11) It’s simple. We’ve seen him move up through the field much further back and he doesn’t even need dominator points to return value. Each Kaulig driver will be mentioned in this section and with the way you can leave salary on the table today, Dinger’s easily in play as always.
Noah Gragson ($10,000; Starting P4) He won Daytona in February of 2020 and he’s never finished worse than 11th at Talladega. Obviously, he needs laps led to return value here, but he definitely wants to run out front. He wants to win the race, but also if he beats Josh Berry, Daniel Hemric, and Brandon Jones then he’ll take home $100,000 for Dash For Cash.
Ryan Sieg ($9,800; Starting P17) Initially I looked at this starting lineup and was willing to hit the smash button on Sieg for all my lineups. Then cooler heads prevailed, and I made a couple pivots in my three builds. I may very well not play him in any lineups, but Sieg is that one driver who can consistently run inside the top ten and luck into some solid track position. He finished second here in the Fall and has some upside. The price tag is a little high for my liking. As often as we wonder how Sieg gets into the top ten during the race, the finishes aren’t always there for him.
Austin Cindric ($9,600; Starting P1) Obligatory Cindric mention here. He’s on the pole so it’s likely he goes backward, but he did win Daytona a couple months ago. Seems fitting that the defending Xfinity Series champion went and qualified for the playoffs in the very first race of the year. Historically speaking, he has decent results at superspeedways. The win a couple months ago really pumps up the resume. He has two top fives in four races here, but he’s also finished 30th and 34th here in the other two races. He does have the luxury of being out front early and he should stay out front and hopefully avoid the Big One. He’s still in a Penske car which is great for plate racing, but ownership could be light on the polesitter.
Justin Haley ($9,200; Starting P5) Haley’s history at superspeedways is well documented. He won both races at Talladega last year, he won at Daytona last summer, and he won the 2019 Coke Zero 400 at the Cup level. But as we were reminded two months ago at Daytona, he’s not exempt from the Big One. But given the track history and the speed of the Kaulig cars at superspeedways, Haley’s in play as always.
Harrison Burton ($8,500; Starting P3) If you’re playing Harrison Burton you’re hoping for a solid finish and maybe 20-30 laps led, but that’s no guarantee this weekend. He doesn’t have a top 20 in two Talladega races, but strangely enough he has never finished outside the top five at Daytona in three races, so at some point that success should carry over to ‘Dega. I’m going to lump in his teammate, Daniel Hemric, as a contrarian play. Hemric’s starting on the front row next to Austin Cindric and he’s $9,400 (yikes). He’s never won a race at the Xfinity level and I do have exposure to Hemric in one of my three lineups today because ownership will likely be very low and I have a gut feeling we get a very strong run from him today.
Jason White ($8,400; Starting P40) White’s going to be chalky. I may lay off him since I’m only doing three lineups on Saturday. But after his top ten at Daytona, he’ll likely be in a lot of lineups for the presumed “free” PD. He’ll need a Top 20 to hit value. If anything happens and he wrecks out then your lineups that don’t have him look great.
Jeb Burton ($8,200; Starting P9) I’m a big fan of the price tag on Jeb Burton today given that he’s in a Kaulig car. He had a solid run at Daytona two months ago where he got a top five and he’s actually cheaper this time around and starting two spots further back. He kicked off the season with three straight top five finishes and while he’s cooled off more recently, he’s still having a good year. I’m not opposed to doing a full Kaulig stack, but that means you’re looking at three drivers starting in the top 12. Preferably I’d go with two of them and then target drivers starting further back, but to each their own.
Ty Dillon ($7,900; Starting P16) I think Ty Dillon should be a contrarian play this week. However, the name recognition could still force ownership and he’s pretty cheap from where he’s starting. A top ten easily hits value and both he and his brother are good on superspeedways. It’s been a bit of a forgotten year for Ty since he’s not at the Cup level and we’ve seen a lot of success from the JGR Star Car. He’s starting right around where we shouldn’t be targeting drivers, but we obviously prefer him over Riley Herbst at this juncture.
Brandon Brown ($7,600; Starting P18) It’s been a very good year for Brandon Brown and his independently owned team. The last couple races haven’t gone his way, but this car has been competitive and a superspeedway is a great spot to target him. He’s starting in the middle of the field which is risky if the Big One comes early. He has three straight top 15’s at Talladega and he’s moved up at least five spots each race. If he can steal another top ten he’s going to offer value.
Ryan Vargas ($6,500; Starting P39) By all accounts, he can’t really kill you. He’s starting in the last row and we might as well go to Vargas who is almost $2,000 cheaper than Jason White and they’re starting right next to each other. He absolutely needs wreckage in order to move up and hopefully he can avoid said carnage. He previously finished 30th at Talladega, but grabbed a top 20 two months ago at Daytona. A top 24 finish here will get him 5X value. Again, he just needs to finish the race without significant damage and he should offer PD by default.
Tommy Joe Martins ($6,100; Starting P23) Of course I’m playing TJM at a superspeedway. He grabbed a top 15 at Daytona in 2020 and has four straight Top 20’s at Talladega including three finishes in the top 15. For a guy with as much bad luck as Tommy Joe, he’s surprisingly done well at Talladega. I’m really hoping that trend continues this weekend. Another Top 15 result would return 6X value.
Gray Gaulding ($5,300; Starting P24) Gray Gaulding has been a driver I’ve struggled to play at the right superspeedway races. In five career races at Daytona he has two finishes in the top ten and then the other three are well outside the top 30. At ‘Dega he has a pair of top tens and he’s cheap and offer’s decent PD. A top 20 finish easily returns 5X value, but we know he has a much higher ceiling. If he gets another top ten then we’re looking at 9X value.
Timmy Hill ($5,000; Starting P27) Timmy Hill’s always a bit of a DFS Darling. The results won’t blow you away. However, at Daytona he has a career average starting spot of 28.6 and he nearly cuts that in half with a career average finish of 14.36. At Talladega we don’t get as much success but he has a career average starting position of 32.3 and an average finish of 21.13 which is still pretty damn good. He will return 5X value if he simply avoids the Big One and finishes 22nd. If he moves up a couple more spots for a Top 20 finish we’re looking at 6X value. It's hard to consider anybody a lock at a superspeedway, but Timmy Hill could very well be one. I thought about writing up David Starr who is starting P26 and is only $200 more than Hill. He’s a nice pivot off all the love Timmy Hill will get today and he hits value with a Top 20 finish as well.
Other Drivers To Consider: Literally Everyone.
Core Strategies:
I’m not going to offer up core drivers today. Matt and I mentioned this on the podcast. A core driver is a driver you can build around comfortably and with the chaos we see on these tracks, no driver is truly safe from the Big One. With that said here are some Core Strategies to deploy on Saturday…
1. Be smart with your bankroll. I’ve blown hundreds of dollars in DFS on Daytona and Talladega. It’s just not worth it. Still get some action and enjoy the race, but sometimes the best win is the hit you didn’t take.
2. If playing Cash contests, the field will be loading up on Jason White, Ryan Vargas, and other drivers starting pretty far back. I’d suggest going that route as well and probably mixing in Allmendinger, Brandon Brown, Timmy Hill, and/or a driver of your choosing. But in my opinion, it’s not worth playing Cash contests at Talladega.
3. Team stacking can work. The only issue is that Kaulig stacks will be popular (I have two) but for Xfinity try to focus more on manufacture stacks. The Toyotas always have issues getting back up to speed when coming off pit road because there aren’t many in the field that pit together and if they don’t come off together they won’t have the strongest draft.
4. Don’t bother checking your lineups until the race is complete. Given the nature of pack racing and the carnage we see here, driver positions fluctuate throughout the whole race, and fastest laps don’t go typically go to the driver in the lead.
5. Play contests you can max enter. I’m throwing a few lineups into the big GPP this weekend, but the entry fee is so cheap that I’m willing to take a shot. But other than that, I’m mostly sticking to single-entry contests and three-entry contests. Don’t go crazy playing 150-max contests if you can’t get the same coverage with your lineups as the touts in the industry.
6. Leave money on the table. You can easily build lineups with four cheap drivers offering PD and then throwing in a mini-Kaulig stack, or building around a pair of drivers starting in the top 15-20 and then looking for PD.
7. Be aware that it’s possible we get a clean race. Sometimes there are those rare exceptions for Daytona and Talladega where we get a pretty boring, uneventful race. It’s more likely than not we see a big wreck, but it’s not a definite. So if you’re making over ten lineups for today’s race, it doesn’t hurt to build one or two lineups with the thought in mind that we get a clean race.