The calendar has switched from November to December. Temperatures and sometimes snow will be falling. It’s time to add checking the weather report to our DFS football preparation.
Long time traditional fantasy football players likely know the conventional wisdom. Unless the conditions include extreme wind or heavy precipitation, there’s nothing to worry about. There’s been a good deal of research done on the subject. Here’s an example.
This and related studies show the points total does not change much. More detailed studies, such as this, exhibit that while the total points don’t change, running yards (and scoring) increase in inclement weather which means passing production drops. Still, the party line is not to get too cute and play your best players.
While I am not saying this is wrong, I do think we need to contextualize the findings in terms of DFS. Research citing weather usually generates conclusions like “hardly any effect” or “not too significant.” Tell that to those in this week’s Draft King’s Millionaire Maker that were less than one point away from another $5000. And to a lesser degree, there were 120 teams less than a point away from cashing in the Draft King’s Giant $10 50/50.
In traditional fantasy football, you have a roster of mostly starters and reserves with maybe a position or two dedicated to streaming matchups. You’re not choosing between Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning. You’re choosing between one of them and Joe Flacco or Ryan Fitzpatrick (oops, maybe the wrong week to use him as an example). The point is, you’re not going to use a second tier QB playing in a dome over Rodgers in the frozen tundra. But, maybe in DFS it does make sense to use Luck playing in Lucas Oil Stadium which will no doubt have its roof closed going forward.
For those playing volume, weather adds another factor to consider while deciding who to fade and where to be contrarian. It’s snowing in Foxboro. While we don’t know who it will be, for sure, Bill Belichick will pound it on the ground, right? Why not slip Tom Brady or better yet Rob Gronkowski into a low cost GPP and hope everyone else is avoiding them? As an aside, LeGarrette Blount is an absolute monster in weather games which I suspect has a lot to do with the Patriots bringing him back.
If you’re playing just a handful of lineups, it’s perfectly defensible to avoid weather games. To reiterate, you’re not starting Ryan Tannehill at home over Ben Roethlisberger playing in rough conditions in your home league finals. But why take the chance with your limited bankroll when there’s more than just one choice? Play the domed or warm-weather starters. One fantasy point can mean the difference between doubling your $5 entry and haggling whether to make another deposit.
Mostly anecdotal for now, there's something bothersome regarding the weather studies and to be honest I'm not sure how to apply this to DFS game play. The landscape has changed. NFL rules are set up favoring passing. The bulk of the studies were done when the rules weren't so liberal. This is a different variable so I'm not sure how applicable past data is under the present climate (pun intended). Maybe since the rules favor passing, the small drop in air production will vanish and weather will have no impact, save for high winds. Or perhaps, the averse conditions may level the playing field such that the more lax rules are moot since defenders don't have to grab receivers and the like. I suppose the best thing to do is redo the studies with the input containing only data pre and post when passing became the thing. Or better yet, normalize each season's numbers to the average passing yards and then compare.