UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Perez takes place this Saturday live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada.  The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 4:00PM EST on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00PM EST on ESPN/ESPN+.  The main event features two top flyweights as the all action Alex Perez takes on the crafty veteran Matheus Nicolau.  The co-main event faces off two first round finishers in Ryan “Superman” Spann and Bogdan Guskov in a fight that should be exciting for as long as it lasts.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
 

DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Perez

A rare main event in the Flyweight division this week between two high level fighters. Perez likes to be really active and push a pace, while Nicolau is more conservative with his volume so this isn't a must play fight. I lean Nicolau as the more talented fighter, but he has a tendency to not do enough at time and against Perez that could lead to him losing rounds. I think eventually Nicolau gets a takedown and controls the fight and when Perez fades, he'll put it on him. I'm taking Nicolau by late finish, but this is a fight that I want to have about 70% combined ownership if I'm building multiple lineups

Expensive Fighters

Henry can land 150+ significant strikes in a fight so even if he doesn't get the finish, he can put up a big score. He's my most confident fighter to win in the high range, and with the volume we've seen him put out I'm confident he scores well on DraftKings also.

Means has questionable durability and Medic is someone who can land a ton of strikes. I expect the winner of this fight to score extremely well so I'll have someone from this fight in most of my lineups. Medic is -150 to win inside the distance and if it's in the first or second round he likely hits the optimal lineup.

This fight is -250 to end under 1.5 rounds so whoever wins is going to score 100+ on DK. I don't trust Spann as he can be hit or miss and either wins or loses within the first round and if he doesn't his fights get ugly. Guskov is going to be losing this fight, but he is the type of fighter that looks to just land the one murderous power punch early on and he's fine eating some shots to try to make that happen.

This is more of a play against Liang Na. Na is notorious for having 5-8 minutes of cardio before completely falling off a cliff and I expect that to happen here. Hopefully she can weather the early storm and once Na tires out, she can put a pace on her and find the late Round 2 finish. Petrovic is more technical, but she is going to have to avoid the early power that Na has.

Diniz has more power and is a much more technical kickboxer. Lane has some athleticism as a former NFL player, but he doesn't wrestle and, on the feet, he should look miles behind. Diniz has a ton of kickboxing experience but doesn't have much in MMA so he's a little bit of an unknown. Eventually he should KO Lane, but knowing he has such a glaring weakness in his takedown and grappling game if this fight hits the ground at all he could look completely out of place. 
 

Mid-Range Fighters

Llontop has a bunch of power, and he probably gets the KO here against a short notice underdog in Padilla. Llontop is the "free square" this week at -425 and only $8200 so if you want to try to get unique in a big tournament you should fade this fight, but for most of my lineups I'll be taking the free square.

The way to beat Onama is to take him down, and that is somewhere that Pearce excels. The mid-range this week is filled with close fights, but I know Pearce is going to need at least a few takedowns to win this fight and, on the feet, we've seen him land 100+ strikes so even if this gets to a decision, he can score 90-100.

Silva is the more likely of the two to get the finish, and specifically by submission where Ariane Lipski (She's listed as da Silva in some places now) has issues. This fight is a coin flip in my head since Lipski has been improving but I think Silva winning by Submission is more likely to score well than most of the other mid-range fighters have in their path to victories.

I can't believe I'm picking Don'Tale Mayes, but I think he has the wrestling advantage here. I think Mayes can get some takedowns and if he gets it down it'll be hard for Machado to get up. Neither of these guys really have one shot power like some of the other heavyweights in this division, but Mayes has worn on some opponents and found late KO's multiple times.

Hubbard isn't the most talented fighter but he's likely landing his 1-3 takedowns, and his 50-70 significant strikes. He likely only scores 70-80 even in a win but as an underdog we take any wins we can get. He's probably the better wrestler so maybe he leans on that a little more than usual, but I'm not overly confident that this fight ends up being that action packed.

Da Silva/Lipski has been steadily improving and we get her as an underdog consistently. She's the better striker, and if she can keep it standing, she wins this fight. My concern is one or two takedowns might be enough for Silva to get the submission.

Onama was an overhyped prospect, and he has really fallen off of everyone's radar after losing to Nate Landwehr in a fight that he won the first round 10-8 before gassing out. He is the better striker, he has longer reach, and as long as he can keep this standing, he wins this fight. This fight should be exciting, and the outcomes are pretty binary where Pearce gets takedowns and dominates on the ground or Onama keeps it standing and dominates.

Pay-Down Fighters

I'm putting Guskov up here for his upside only. He either scores 5pts in a loss, or 100+ in an early win and for $7300 he is worth taking a few shots on.

I'm a big fan of Tim Means and always have been but his best days are past him. At his best he's a technical striker and can mix in wrestling here and there to win fights, but his biggest concern is his chin. If he can get past the early onslaught of Medic, he might be able to turn the tides, but this is a tough test for an aging veteran.

Souza is the better striker, and Mann is going to have to get this fight to the ground if she wants to survive. Souza was dominated in her UFC debut, but Karine Silva is a much better fighter than Mann, so I expect this to be much closer. I'm not betting this fight, I'm likely not prioritizing Mann in lineups but if she fits in as a last piece I'll play her.

I'm not a fan of Benitez because of the pace of his fights but he has decent power, can wrestle a little, and has been durable enough. Maheshate can get reckless at times and if Benitez lands a power shot, I can see him winning here by KO. I don't love the expected pace of this fight if it gets to decision, but if Benitez wins, he should be able to pay off his price.

Padilla is appropriately priced, and his opponent is going to be the chalk on the slate. If you play 10 lineups, I would put him in one because if he wins, you kill off the 60% of the lineups that had Llontop and you get a win at $6900 in your lineup, so you'll be playing for the top prizes with very few others. He's also coming off a win against a former UFC veteran in Justin Jaynes so you could do worse with a massive underdog.

Na is first round or bust and that is rare for a big underdog in woman's MMA. She has actual power for this division so if she can land early maybe she can find the KO. Neither of these women are proven so these are the spots I like to take shots on the underdog.

I'm not playing Yahya, he has low volume, and this is a major step up in competition. He is always live for pulling guard and finding a submission, but I'm not banking on it here against a veteran in Henry.

Sample Lineup 

Live Dogs

• Perez
• Onama
• Guskov
• Mayes

Picks and Stats