UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje kicks off from Salt Lake City Utah with the Early Prelims at 6:30 PM on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims ABC/ESPN+ at 8:00PM and finally the Main Card on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00PM. This is one of the best cards of the year being highlighted by a fight that is sure to entertain Dustin Poirier stepping in against Justin Gaethje for the BMF title. On top of that we have Alex Pereira moving up to 205lbs to face former title holder Jan Blachowicz in what should be a title eliminator fight as “Poatan” looks to make his push for a second title.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
Update: The fight between Stephen Thompson and Michel Pereira is now OFF as Pereira missed weight.
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje | 8300/7900 | - | Stackability: Low | -150/ 125 | 135./210. |
| An electric matchup in the lightweight division for the BMF belt headlines the card this week and I expect nothing but fireworks. This is a rematch from years ago when Gathje was only a few fights into his UFC career so if anyone has made improvements it's likely to be Gaethje. Poirier is the more technical striker so I'm expecting him to have the slight advantage when this is at range, but if this gets greasy it is tough to pick against Gaethje. Both sides of this fight are live for the optimal lineup, and a stack in cash games is nearly a must as in a decision the loser of this fight probably scores 50-60pts. I'm leaning slightly towards Gaethje due to him being used to elevation, but Poirier is a dog and has never backed down or really looked gassed in a fight so it's hard to bank on having a cardio advantage. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Bobby Green | 9500 | Tony Ferguson | Somewhat-Safe | -400 | 135. |
| Bobby Green is someone I normally like to target in his fights due to his high volume, and this week is no different. Tony has looked on his last legs so his durability may not be there as it was in years past. If Green can find a finish in round 1/2, he probably scores 110+ with the amount of volume he puts out on his opponents. He probably won't use his wrestling against someone like Tony just because of his speed advantage at range. | |||||
| Miranda Maverick | 9400 | Priscila Cachoeira | Somewhat-Safe | -333 | 110. |
| Cachoeira forces a pace on her opponents that leads to good scores on DraftKings, and Cachoeira's lack of takedown defense is going to help as well. The high-priced fighters this week aren't -1000 and -500 to win inside the distance like some of these past weeks so we may not find the finish here, but even if she lands 3 takedowns and 100 significant strikes, she could still hit the optimal lineup. Maverick is giving up 4 inches in height and she has shown some struggles wrestling taller fighters so if she can't get the fight down, she has to be ready for a war. | |||||
| Jake Matthews | 9300 | Darrius Flowers | Risky | -275 | -130 |
| Matthews faces a short notice replacement in Flowers in a matchup that should favor him. Matthews is a slightly bigger fighter and should have a wrestling advantage here and with the power that Flowers possesses it's the safest spot he can get the fight. Matthews has never been a chain wrestler, but he has shown he has enough to get the job done if needed. | |||||
| Roman Kopylov | 9000 | Claudio Ribeiro | Moderate | -210 | 100. |
| Kopylov can crack and so can Ribeiro so I'm expecting someone to get KO'd here. Kopylov looked career best last time out and if he shows up in that form, he should be able to survive the early danger and eventually find the finish in round 2 or 3. | |||||
| Gabriel Bonfim | 9200 | Trevin Giles | Moderate | -333 | -225 |
| This line is way too big, but I think he is still one of the better high-end plays. Bonfim is going to have the advantage in volume and pace which has led him to have the best inside the distance line on the card. Fighters inside the top 15 have been able to KO Giles and I think that Bonfim is on his way to that range, but this might be too much too soon for him. Giles has been DraftKings poison by stalling fights against the cage so hopefully Bonfim can find space and drown him in volume. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 8600 | Uros Medic | Moderate | -210 | -115 |
| Semelsberger needs to survive the early storm of Medic but if the fight goes past the first round, he should be able to cruise. Medics throw a ton of volume and add in the fight being at altitude he shouldn't be able to keep up his pace. Semelsberger's kryptonite is normally wrestlers so in this matchup he shouldn't have to worry about that. Semi the Jedi by second round KO. | |||||
| Marcos Rogerio de Lima | 8500 | Derrick Lewis | Moderate | -225 | -150 |
| Someone is getting finished in this fight as it sits at nearly -600 to end inside the distance. Rogerio de Lima is the fighter with the most wins recently, but he has fought the lower level of competition. I expect Rogerio to have success in round 1 as he normally is able to get his wrestling going early, but he has gassed out and quit in the past if he isn't able to keep up the pace. Lewis has been known to pull KO's off late in fights so even if he is tired, he still is dangerous. Rogerio by early stoppage, otherwise this fight is going to get ugly. | |||||
| Kevin Holland | 8400 | Michael Chiesa | Somewhat-Risky | -150 | 105. |
| Holland has all the advantages if he keeps this fight standing, and while Chiesa is a good wrestler, he doesn't really threaten finishes on the ground. Chiesa is 35 years old and coming off a 20-month layoff, and most of his wrestling success lately has been against fighters like Diego Sanchez and RDA who are smaller for the division. Holland has a long frame and he fought up at 185lbs for a long time, so I don't think he is going to be outmuscled in this matchup. I'm not sure if Holland can get it done inside the distance, but if he keeps it standing, he should be able to land around 100 significant strikes over 3 rounds. | |||||
| Alex Pereira | 8000 | Jan Blachowicz | Somewhat-Risky | 100 | 145. |
| The Co-Main Event gives us a great matchup in the light heavyweight division as Pereira makes his move up in weight. Jan can wrestle so if he can get Alex down it may be a boring fight with him just lying and praying, but if what Jan said is true and he wants to test out his stand-up game this should be a great matchup for Alex. My only concern is with this being the Co-Main Event they both may come in highly owned and I'm not sure if this goes the distance that either of these guys score over 75pts. | |||||
| CJ Vergara | 8700 | Vinicius Salvador | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | 170. |
| Salvador likes to throw down, so I expect this to be an exciting fight. Vergara starts slow so I'm nervous he gets KO'd early but if he doesn’t, he should pull away down the stretch. | |||||
| Jan Blachowicz | 8200 | Alex Pereira | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | 165. |
| Maybe Jan wrestles and lands 4-5 takedowns to go along with 8 minutes of control time and finds a late finish? I don't think it's likely but if Jan was smart, he would try to utilize the wrestling. | |||||
| Uros Medic | 7600 | Matthew Semelsberger | Risky | 175 | 300. |
| The doctor throws a ton of volume early so he has the high ceiling that we need to win a GPP. Based on his inside the distance odds he's about 25% to find the finish here and if he does, he probably ends up on the optimal lineup. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Michel Pereira | 7400 | Stephen Thompson | Somewhat-Risky | 130 | 145. |
| Pereira is explosive and he'll need to make this fight chaos if he wants a chance to win it. I expect him to push forward and if he uses his wrestling, he can probably win a decision here. If he keeps it standing, he has to land the one punch KO otherwise he's going to get pieced up at range. | |||||
| Vinicius Salvador | 7500 | CJ Vergara | Somewhat-Risky | 125 | 200. |
| Salvador is another one of these KO or bust fighters and with Vergara usually starting to slow he should be able to jump out to an early lead. This is another KO or bust type fighter who can end up on the optimal if he wins this fight. | |||||
| Claudio Ribeiro | 7200 | Roman Kopylov | Risky | 175 | 275. |
| Ribeira is dangerous for five minutes and I don't rate him very highly. He isn't a bad value with his ITD and price, but I'll probably be skipping him this week for other fighters in this range. | |||||
| Priscila Cachoeira | 6800 | Miranda Maverick | Risky | 250 | 450. |
| Cachoeira moves forward and forces action so while she isn't the most talented fighter you know what you are getting out of her. If she keeps this standing, she could win this fight and for someone priced this low that’s all you need for her to be playable. She has a good floor in a win, probably around 80pts even in a decision win. | |||||
| Trevin Giles | 7000 | Gabriel Bonfim | Risky | 250 | 500. |
| Giles has some power, but I normally just avoid playing him due to his low volume. He's +500 to win inside the distance and even if he wins a decision, he probably won't score over 75pts, so he is KO or bust. | |||||
| Tony Ferguson | 6700 | Bobby Green | Risky | 300 | 700. |
| Can Ferguson roll back the clock? Probably not, but Green isn't a notorious power puncher so he could stay in the fight long enough to make it close. I don't love picking fighters on the decline, but you are getting a legend of the division taking a step back in competition here at the biggest odds on the card. I'll be playing Tony in some of my lineups and if he ends up on top in any transitions, I think he could push for a KO. | |||||
| Darrius Flowers | 6900 | Jake Matthews | Risky | 225 | 320. |
| Flowers is in on short notice and from all of the tape I watched on him he doesn't throw much volume. His takedown defense is a liability, but he throws everything with power. He'll need to pray one of the haymakers he throws lands and turns the tide of the fight. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Gaethje, Pereira, Medic, Salvador, Cachoeira
Picks and Stats
Dustin Poirier | vs | Justin Gaethje |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 29-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 24-4-0 |
14 | Knockouts | 19 |
8 | Subs | 1 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | 125 |
Jan Blachowicz | vs | Alex Pereira |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 29-9-1 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 6 |
9 | Subs | 0 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | 100 |
Stephen Thompson | vs | Michel Pereira |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 17-6-1 | Record | Record: 28-11-0 (2 NC) |
8 | Knockouts | 10 |
1 | Subs | 7 |
-160 | Vegas Odds | 130 |
Tony Ferguson | vs | Bobby Green |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 26-8-0 | Record | Record: 29-14-1 (1 NC) |
12 | Knockouts | 10 |
8 | Subs | 8 |
300 | Vegas Odds | -400 |
Michael Chiesa | vs | Kevin Holland |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 18-6-0 | Record | Record: 24-9-0 (1 NC) |
0 | Knockouts | 14 |
10 | Subs | 6 |
125 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
0 | ||
Gabriel Bonfim | vs | Trevin Giles |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 14-0-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 6 |
11 | Subs | 5 |
-333 | Vegas Odds | 250 |
Derrick Lewis | vs | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 26-11-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-9-1 |
21 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
180 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Roman Kopylov | vs | Claudio Ribeiro |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | 175 |
Jake Matthews | vs | Darrius Flowers |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 18-6-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
7 | Subs | 1 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | 225 |
CJ Vergara | vs | Vinicius Salvador |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 11-4-1 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 13 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-165 | Vegas Odds | 125 |
Matthew Semelsberger | vs | Uros Medic |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 11-5-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | 175 |
Miranda Maverick | vs | Priscila Cachoeira |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 7 |
6 | Subs | 0 |
-333 | Vegas Odds | 250 |